摩根大通警告：如果特朗普周三胜出，美联储可能最早在12月暂停宽松周期

华尔街见闻11-04

明天，美国总统大选开启最终投票，预计北京时间6日中午可基本敲定大选结果。周一，摩根大通分析师David Kelly在接受财经媒体Business Insider采访时表示，如果特朗普本周赢得美国大选，美联储最早可能在12月暂停其宽松周期。 Kelly认为，特朗普的扩张性财政政策计划将推高通胀并阻止利率下降： “如果特朗普赢得大选，那么他将会采取更加扩张性的财政政策，可能引发贸易战，赤字将扩大，...

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CaseyLKC
11-04
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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732877><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>明天，美国总统大选开启最终投票，预计北京时间6日中午可基本敲定大选结果。\n周一，摩根大通分析师David Kelly在接受财经媒体Business Insider采访时表示，如果特朗普本周赢得美国大选，美联储最早可能在12月暂停其宽松周期。\nKelly认为，特朗普的扩张性财政政策计划将推高通胀并阻止利率下降：\n\n“如果特朗普赢得大选，那么他将会采取更加扩张性的财政政策，可能引发贸易战，赤字将扩大，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732877\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IVV","symbol_name":"标普500指数ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732877","article_id":"2480580585","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fee56085-f842-4a4f-bebb-f234fbec2c4c.jpeg"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732877","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2480580585","pubTimestamp":1730734726,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"分析师David Kelly预计，特朗普政府的政策将扩大财政赤字，从而增加通胀，这可能使美联储暂停降息。而如果哈里斯获胜，美联储将维持宽松路径。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"IVV":"标普500指数ETF","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) 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Insider采访时表示，如果特朗普本周赢得美国大选，美联储最早可能在12月暂停其宽松周期。\nKelly认为，特朗普的扩张性财政政策计划将推高通胀并阻止利率下降：\n\n“如果特朗普赢得大选，那么他将会采取更加扩张性的财政政策，可能引发贸易战，赤字将扩大，利率也将上升。”\n\nKelly还表示，美联储几乎肯定会在周五利率决策中降息25个基点，即使选举在此之前举行。\n如果特朗普胜选，将促使美联储暂停降息\n特朗普此前提出的关税提案，以及其打击移民的计划，被广泛认为会引发通货膨胀。因为这些计划将涉及大量联邦支出，从而加剧联邦预算赤字。\nKelly则认为，这些政策的影响将促使美联储暂停降息。她表示：\n\n“我认为特朗普政府会研究财政政策的可能方向。如果财政政策看起来会增加赤字，增加财政刺激，增加通胀，他们可能会觉得，如果财政政策是扩张性的，我们就必须反对这种扩张，并放缓宽松政策。”\n\n另一方面，Kelly表示，如果哈里斯获胜，经济可能会继续走向软着陆。\n\n“如果政府内部出现分裂，比如说哈里斯获胜，那么我认为经济将继续缓慢、长期地软着陆，整体上会显得比较平淡无奇。”\n\nKelly认为，在这种情况下，美联储可能会坚持其预计的政策宽松路径。\n周五降息25个基点，板上钉钉？\nKelly表示，除非通胀再次席卷，否则美联储会继续坚持其9月公布的点阵图。当时的图表显示，预计美联储年底前将再降息50个基点，2025年将进一步放松。\n虽然美联储独立运作，但Kelly指出，它仍然无法完全摆脱政治因素的影响，因为政治事件的发展可能会决定经济的走向。\n\n“一旦美联储了解了财政政策将采取什么措施，我认为这将对他们的决策产生一定影响。他们不会试图告诉联邦政府该做什么，但他们会对联邦政府正在做的事情或联邦政府可能做的事情做出反应。”\n\n因此，他表示，美联储几乎肯定会在周五利率决策中降息25个基点，即使选举在此之前举行。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":367386684637400,"gmtCreate":1730735733362,"gmtModify":1730735735324,"author":{"id":"4091363089250230","authorId":"4091363089250230","name":"CaseyLKC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4091363089250230","authorIdStr":"4091363089250230"},"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367386684637400","repostId":2480580585,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2480580585","pubTimestamp":1730734726,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2480580585?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-04 23:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通警告：如果特朗普周三胜出，美联储可能最早在12月暂停宽松周期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2480580585","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"分析师David Kelly预计，特朗普政府的政策将扩大财政赤字，从而增加通胀，这可能使美联储暂停降息。而如果哈里斯获胜，美联储将维持宽松路径。","content":"<html><body><p>明天，美国总统大选开启最终投票，预计北京时间6日中午可基本敲定大选结果。</p>\n<p>周一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>分析师David Kelly在接受财经媒体Business Insider采访时表示，如果特朗普本周赢得美国大选，美联储最早可能在12月暂停其宽松周期。</p>\n<p>Kelly认为，特朗普的扩张性财政政策计划将推高通胀并阻止利率下降：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“如果特朗普赢得大选，那么他将会采取更加扩张性的财政政策，可能引发贸易战，赤字将扩大，利率也将上升。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Kelly还表示，<strong>美联储几乎肯定会在周五利率决策中降息25个基点，即使选举在此之前举行。</strong></p>\n<h2>如果特朗普胜选，将促使美联储暂停降息</h2>\n<p>特朗普此前提出的关税提案，以及其打击移民的计划，被广泛认为会引发通货膨胀。因为这些计划将涉及大量联邦支出，从而加剧联邦预算赤字。</p>\n<p>Kelly则认为，这些政策的影响将促使美联储暂停降息。她表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“我认为特朗普政府会研究财政政策的可能方向。如果财政政策看起来会增加赤字，增加财政刺激，增加通胀，<strong>他们可能会觉得，如果财政政策是扩张性的，我们就必须反对这种扩张，并放缓宽松政策。</strong>”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>另一方面，Kelly表示，<strong>如果哈里斯获胜，经济可能会继续走向软着陆。</strong></p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“如果政府内部出现分裂，比如说哈里斯获胜，那么我认为经济将继续缓慢、长期地软着陆，整体上会显得比较平淡无奇。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Kelly认为，<strong>在这种情况下，美联储可能会坚持其预计的政策宽松路径。</strong></p>\n<h2>周五降息25个基点，板上钉钉？</h2>\n<p>Kelly表示，除非通胀再次席卷，否则美联储会继续坚持其9月公布的点阵图。当时的图表显示，<strong>预计美联储年底前将再降息50个基点，2025年将进一步放松。</strong></p>\n<p>虽然美联储独立运作，但Kelly指出，<strong>它仍然无法完全摆脱政治因素的影响，因为政治事件的发展可能会决定经济的走向。</strong></p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“一旦美联储了解了财政政策将采取什么措施，我认为这将对他们的决策产生一定影响。他们不会试图告诉联邦政府该做什么，但他们会对联邦政府正在做的事情或联邦政府可能做的事情做出反应。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>因此，他表示，<strong>美联储几乎肯定会在周五利率决策中降息25个基点，即使选举在此之前举行。</strong></p><div>风险提示及免责条款</div>\n<div>\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n          </div>\n</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通警告：如果特朗普周三胜出，美联储可能最早在12月暂停宽松周期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通警告：如果特朗普周三胜出，美联储可能最早在12月暂停宽松周期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-04 23:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732877><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>明天，美国总统大选开启最终投票，预计北京时间6日中午可基本敲定大选结果。\n周一，摩根大通分析师David Kelly在接受财经媒体Business Insider采访时表示，如果特朗普本周赢得美国大选，美联储最早可能在12月暂停其宽松周期。\nKelly认为，特朗普的扩张性财政政策计划将推高通胀并阻止利率下降：\n\n“如果特朗普赢得大选，那么他将会采取更加扩张性的财政政策，可能引发贸易战，赤字将扩大，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732877\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fee56085-f842-4a4f-bebb-f234fbec2c4c.jpeg","relate_stocks":{"IVV":"标普500指数ETF","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC",".SPX":"S&P 500 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INC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732877","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2480580585","content_text":"明天，美国总统大选开启最终投票，预计北京时间6日中午可基本敲定大选结果。\n周一，摩根大通分析师David Kelly在接受财经媒体Business Insider采访时表示，如果特朗普本周赢得美国大选，美联储最早可能在12月暂停其宽松周期。\nKelly认为，特朗普的扩张性财政政策计划将推高通胀并阻止利率下降：\n\n“如果特朗普赢得大选，那么他将会采取更加扩张性的财政政策，可能引发贸易战，赤字将扩大，利率也将上升。”\n\nKelly还表示，美联储几乎肯定会在周五利率决策中降息25个基点，即使选举在此之前举行。\n如果特朗普胜选，将促使美联储暂停降息\n特朗普此前提出的关税提案，以及其打击移民的计划，被广泛认为会引发通货膨胀。因为这些计划将涉及大量联邦支出，从而加剧联邦预算赤字。\nKelly则认为，这些政策的影响将促使美联储暂停降息。她表示：\n\n“我认为特朗普政府会研究财政政策的可能方向。如果财政政策看起来会增加赤字，增加财政刺激，增加通胀，他们可能会觉得，如果财政政策是扩张性的，我们就必须反对这种扩张，并放缓宽松政策。”\n\n另一方面，Kelly表示，如果哈里斯获胜，经济可能会继续走向软着陆。\n\n“如果政府内部出现分裂，比如说哈里斯获胜，那么我认为经济将继续缓慢、长期地软着陆，整体上会显得比较平淡无奇。”\n\nKelly认为，在这种情况下，美联储可能会坚持其预计的政策宽松路径。\n周五降息25个基点，板上钉钉？\nKelly表示，除非通胀再次席卷，否则美联储会继续坚持其9月公布的点阵图。当时的图表显示，预计美联储年底前将再降息50个基点，2025年将进一步放松。\n虽然美联储独立运作，但Kelly指出，它仍然无法完全摆脱政治因素的影响，因为政治事件的发展可能会决定经济的走向。\n\n“一旦美联储了解了财政政策将采取什么措施，我认为这将对他们的决策产生一定影响。他们不会试图告诉联邦政府该做什么，但他们会对联邦政府正在做的事情或联邦政府可能做的事情做出反应。”\n\n因此，他表示，美联储几乎肯定会在周五利率决策中降息25个基点，即使选举在此之前举行。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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