The US$115 billion question: Will Meta and Microsoft's huge spending on AI be worth it?

LiveWire11-04 04:00

Many investors believe that artificial intelligence (AI) will improve the world. But bullish or not, there is one question that AI aficionados cannot afford to ignore: how much will it cost? This week...

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But bullish or not, there is one question that AI aficionados cannot afford to ignore: how much will it cost? This week...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-us-115-billion-question-will-meta-and-microsoft-s-huge-spending-on-ai-be-worth-it\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BSNM7G36.USD","symbol_name":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-us-115-billion-question-will-meta-and-microsoft-s-huge-spending-on-ai-be-worth-it","article_id":"2480913793","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"livewire_stock","url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-us-115-billion-question-will-meta-and-microsoft-s-huge-spending-on-ai-be-worth-it","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2480913793","pubTimestamp":1730664019,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"livewire_stock","name":"Livewire Markets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Many investors believe that artificial intelligence  will improve the world. But bullish or not, there is one question that AI aficionados cannot afford to ignore: how much will it cost?This week, that cost question was front and centre for the major US tech earnings results.Alphabet , the parent company of Google, has already flagged that its AI expenditure costs will remain elevated. Although it reported a 35% increase in cloud revenues last quarter, CAPEX  rose by more than 60%, to over US$13 billion. CEO Sundar Pichai has already flagged that this figure will likely be similar for Q4.But unlike Alphabet, two other Magnificent Seven names have increased their CAPEX forecasts for fiscal 2025. At a time when margins are being watched more closely than ever, any significant increase in costs will likely weigh on investor sentiment. And as anyone who's closely watched markets over the last few years could tell you, one miss in an otherwise perfect set of numbers can still cost a company","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0724617625.USD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A4\" (USD) INC","BEAT":"Heartbeam Inc","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0187121727.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","GOOG":"谷歌","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4082":"医疗保健设备","GB00B4QBRK32.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) INC","BK4577":"网络游戏","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0203202063.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"A2X\" (USD) ACC","MSFT":"微软","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"1150亿美元的问题：Meta和微软在AI上的巨额支出值得吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1,"META":1,"BEAT":1,"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.6},"content_text":"Many investors believe that artificial intelligence (AI) will improve the world. But bullish or not, there is one question that AI aficionados cannot afford to ignore: how much will it cost? This week, that cost question was front and centre for the major US tech earnings results. \nAlphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), the parent company of Google, has already flagged that its AI expenditure costs will remain elevated. Although it reported a 35% increase in cloud revenues last quarter, CAPEX (capital expenditure) rose by more than 60%, to over US$13 billion. CEO Sundar Pichai has already flagged that this figure will likely be similar for Q4. \nBut unlike Alphabet, two other Magnificent Seven names have increased their CAPEX forecasts for fiscal 2025. At a time when margins are being watched more closely than ever, any significant increase in costs will likely weigh on investor sentiment. And as anyone who's closely watched markets over the last few years could tell you, one miss in an otherwise perfect set of numbers can still cost a company any expectations for a post-earnings share price appreciation.\nLivewire is running coverage of the US earnings season over the next week or so as the numbers come in and the washout begins. We are starting with Plato Investment Management's Dr David Allen and his analysis of the Meta (NASDAQ: META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) results.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDr David Allen, Plato Investment Management\nMeta Platforms\n\nQ3 revenue +19% year-over-year to US$40,589 million (BEAT)\nCosts +14% year-over-year to US$23,239 million\nNet income +35% year-over-year to US$15,688 million (BEAT)\nEPS of US$6.03/share BEAT expectations by 15%\nMargins of 42.7% BEAT expectations by 9.5%\n\nThe commentary below was provided by Dr David Allen, Plato Investment Management.\nMeta, the owner of Facebook and Instagram reported on Thursday, and fell 4%.\nThere was something for the Meta bulls and bears in Thursday’s results. The former cheered the 20% year-over-year advertising revenue growth, a 1% beat on the top line, a margin of 42.7%, which was 9.5% above consensus, and a GAAP EPS [earnings per share] that was 15% above consensus.\nThe bears will fret over the guidance for “significant acceleration” in CAPEX as Meta leans into AI infrastructure spending. As seen below, the forecast CAPEX spending is colossal, predicted to be almost $50 billion in the 2025 fiscal year. It remains to be seen the extent to which Meta can monetise their leadership in this space. That said, Meta AI now has more than 500 million MAUs [monthly active users]. Bears will also note the company is signalling that it will be less focused on earnings during this build-out.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Plato Investment Management\nMeta has released its Llama LLM [large language-generated AI models] for broad use. Within Meta, these models are driving productivity gains. At Plato, we use the models for analysing the sentiment of tens of thousands of earnings calls   and   broker   research   notes   and   have   found   them   to   perform remarkably well (near human level).\nWe currently have a BUY on Meta. The company’s almost impenetrable competitive moat continues to drive network effects. Plato ranks Meta as the 509th most attractive stock of 3145 US stocks and the 17th most attractive of the 135 stocks in its sector.\nMicrosoft\n\nEarnings per share of US$3.30, on revenue of US$65.59 billion (both BEAT analyst expectations)\nMargins +14% year-over-year to 46.7%\nCloud revenues +20% to US$24.1 billion, guidance of +18% to +20% for the year\nAzure cloud infrastructure business sales +34%, guidance of +31% to +32% for the coming quarter (weaker than market expectations)\n\nThe commentary below was provided by Dr David Allen, Plato Investment Management.\nMicrosoft, reported quarterly earnings, falling 6%, the most in two years.\nAgain, there was something in the results for the bulls and the bears. Bulls will focus on the 16% first-quarter revenue growth to US$65.6 billion and EPS of US$3.30, beating expectations. The Bears will focus on the slower-than-expected Azure ramp and accelerating CAPEX. The disappointing cloud outlook was supply-driven with a slower-than-hoped-for roll-out for the Azure platform capacity.\nWhy is this so important? Well, the Intelligent Cloud segment that Azure falls under makes up US$105.4 billion of Microsoft’s revenue. This represents 43% of revenue, exceeding the revenue of their dominant Office products. \nIf you were frightened by the acceleration of Meta's CAPEX, the picture for Microsoft is arguably even more sobering, projected to reach US$65 billion in 2026.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Plato Investment Management\nCasting this in historical terms, Microsoft’s CAPEX as a proportion of revenue has never before exceeded Meta’s. As shown below, Meta has now lost this dubious crown. \nThe market can be cruel in the short term and punish large-cap ex-ramps (as Meta found out in their ill-fated adventures into the metaverse). We don’t see sentiment turning around for Microsoft in the short term.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Plato Investment Management\nWe currently have a SELL on Microsoft. Not because we doubt the long-term prospects of the company, but simply because sentiment is so dire in the short term. Plato ranks Microsoft the 2184th most attractive stock of 3145 US stocks, and the 287th most attractive of the 384 stocks in its sector.\nUS earnings season coverage continues next week with a complete wrap of the Big Bank earnings as well as the rest of the Magnificent Seven.\n\n \n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2480913793"}