Gold Demand Trends Q3 2024

seekingalpha11-05

Total gold demand gained 5% y/y to 1,313t – a record for a third quarter.Global gold ETF inflows were a major driver of growth.Bar and coin investment was down 9% y/y, from a relatively strong Q3’23....

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it grew 7% y/y albeit from a fairly low base and the outlook remains cautious.   mathieukor  Value of gold demand rockets with price ETF and OTC investment flows buoy total demand Total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained 5% y/y to 1,313t – a record for a third quarter. This strength was reflected in the gold price, which reached a series of new record highs during the quarter. The value of demand jumped 35% y/y to exceed US$100bn for the first time ever. Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth; Q3 was the first positive quarter since Q1’22, with a y/y swing from hefty (-139t) Q3’23 outflows. Bar and coin investment (269t) was down 9% y/y, from a relatively strong Q3’23. Much of the decline was specific to two or three key markets, counterbalanced by a very strong quarter in India. Gold jewellery consumption (459t) sank 12% y/y despite strong growth in India. Although consumers bought reduced quantities, their spend on gold jewellery increased: the value of demand jumped 13% y/y to more than US$36bn. The pace of central bank buying (186t) slowed in Q3, but y-t-d buying is in line with 2022 and remains widespread. AI continued to support the use of gold in technology (83t); it grew 7% y/y albeit from a fairly low base and the outlook remains cautious. Highlights The LBMA (PM) gold price continued to breach successive record highs during Q3. The average price for the quarter was 28% higher y/y at a record US$2,474/oz. OTC investment almost doubled y/y to 137t. This was the seventh consecutive quarter in which OTC investment has been positive for gold demand and remains a notable component of the market. Total gold supply grew by 5% y/y to a record 1,313t. Mine production grew 6% y/y to another quarterly record and y-t-d output has eclipsed the 2018 prior high. Recycled gold volumes rose 11% y/y, but widespread distress selling is not yet in evidence. Investment flows were key to gold’s performance in Q3. Falling interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, portfolio diversification and momentum buying were among the key drivers. 2024 full year outlook: resurgent professional flows combined with solid bar and coin investment will offset weaker consumer demand and slower central bank buying. Chart 1: Gold price surge lifts demand value above US$100bn Quarterly total gold demand by sector, tonnes and value*    Gold supply and demand Table 1: Gold supply and demand by sector, tonnes   Source: ICE Benchmark Administration, Metals Focus, World Gold Council Copyright and other rights © 2024 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates. Any references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. 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World Gold Council does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information and does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information. This information is not a recommendation or an offer for the purchase or sale of gold or any products, services, or securities. This information contains forward-looking statements which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There is no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither WGC nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations. 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