RBA Cuts Still a Long Way Off, if at All -- Market Talk

Dow Jones11-05 16:37

0837 GMT - The RBA gave little forward guidance as it held the cash rate earlier as widely expected, says HSBC's Paul Bloxham. The RBA reiterated that it isn't ruling anything in or out, so the next move could be a hike or a cut, the economist says. HSBC's central case is that the first cut won't come until 2Q 2025, but there is a rising risk of it taking longer or that the RBA misses the easing phase altogether. "This could come about because domestic inflation continues to fall only very slowly or because, by the time domestic inflation has eased sufficiently, the global economy is already reinflating," Bloxham says. HSBC ascribes a 25% chance to no cut at all in 2025. As the RBA indicated, the outlook remains highly uncertain, he says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 05, 2024 03:37 ET (08:37 GMT)

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HSBC's central case is that the first cut won't come until 2Q 2025, but there is a rising risk of it taking longer or that the RBA misses the easing phase altogether. \"This could come about because domestic inflation continues to fall only very slowly or because, by the time domestic inflation has eased sufficiently, the global economy is already reinflating,\" Bloxham says. HSBC ascribes a 25% chance to no cut at all in 2025. As the RBA indicated, the outlook remains highly uncertain, he says. 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