Here's how much was wagered on the 2024 presidential election on these betting markets

MW Here's how much was wagered on the 2024 presidential election on these betting markets

By Weston Blasi

Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election; here's how much people wagered on the race

Just how big was betting on the 2024 presidential election? We now have the answer.

According to data from two sites that offered election betting - also referred to as futures "contracts" - two brands that accepted election wagers had hundreds of millions of dollars at stake across this November's elections.

Bettors had $132 million at stake in the presidential race alone at technology startup platform Kalshi, a company representative told MarketWatch. The total at-stake number at Kalshi was $400 million across all contracts throughout the platform, which also included races for the Senate, House and some state races.

That figure is for people located in the U.S. only.

On ForecastEx LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Interactive Brokers $(IBKR)$, $538 million was wagered on the 2024 presidential election as of Nov. 6, a company spokesperson told MarketWatch.

It's worth noting that the total amount at stake is not the same figure as trading volume for these contracts. For example, a person could buy a position for $100, sell it, and buy again, and that individual would have only staked $100, but accumulated $300 in trading volume.

MarketWatch's Gordon Gottsegen reported that some brokerages were only making a few million dollars in revenue through these offerings, which they monetized by charging a 1-cent commission per contract.

"Since investors must commit capital to express their conviction, they are engaged and educated about a subject," Steve Sanders, EVP of marketing and product development at Interactive Brokers, told MarketWatch. "ForecastEx delivered highly predictive, real-time data to both investors and the broader market."

Both Kalshi and Interactive Brokers's ForecastEx are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

A few other brokerages and websites offered election contract betting this cycle, including Robinhood and Polymarket. Robinhood (HOOD) did not immediately disclose the total amount of money at stake from election bets, and PolyMarket did not respond to a request for comment. Polymarket is not available for people located in the U.S.

See also: 'Trump trades' move into overdrive as Dow, dollar and bond yields soar. What's next for markets.

Interactive Brokers and Kalshi tend to not use descriptions like "betting," "wagering" or "odds," instead saying that these offerings allow traders to take a view on a future event.

Both companies refer to these wagers as "contracts," which are essentially yes-or-no bets. For example, there could be a contract titled "Donald Trump to become 47th U.S. president" with a contract price of 52 cents for "yes" and 48 cents for "no."

-Weston Blasi

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 06, 2024 18:24 ET (23:24 GMT)

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