Are listed stocks or unlisted funds the better 'alternative'?

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But are the stocks of private market managers a better investment than their unlisted funds?And is investing in a private market manager's stock a viable substitute for investing in a private markets fund?We take a look at those questions, as well as offer our top picks, in this wire.Private Markets are debt and equity investments in private companies or assets, such as Private Credit/Debt, Private Equity  and  Real  Assets  including  infrastructure  and  real estate.Between 2000 and 2023, the number of publicly traded US companies ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","GRO":"Brazil Potash Corp.","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","WRD":"文远知行","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","BX":"黑石","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4149":"建筑机械与重型卡车","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","IE00B64PRP62.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL MONEY MANAGERS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","IE00B3QW5Z07.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL MONEY MANAGERS \"C\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BGHQF748.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL MONEY MANAGERS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","TPG":"TPG, Inc.","GPEQ.AU":"VANECK GB LISTED PV EQ ETF","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓"},"translate_title":"上市股票还是非上市基金是更好的“选择”？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WRD":1,"GRO":1,"GPEQ.AU":1,"GP":1,"BX":1,"TPG":1},"content_text":"This article only contains general financial advice, which has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and because of this, you should, before acting on the general advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.”\nInvesting  in listed  Private  Market  manager  stocks  is significantly  different  from  investing  directly  in Private Assets. But are the stocks of private market managers a better investment than their unlisted funds? And is investing in a private market manager's stock a viable substitute for investing in a private markets fund? We take a look at those questions, as well as offer our top picks, in this wire.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBackground\nPrivate Markets are debt and equity investments in private companies or assets, such as Private Credit/Debt, Private Equity  and  Real  Assets  including  infrastructure  and  real estate.\nBetween 2000 and 2023, the number of publicly traded US companies  declined  by  more than  30%. Conversely,  over the same timeframe, the number of private US companies backed  by  private  equity  firms  grew  by  more  than  500%. \nFigure 3: Private Equity-backed versus publicly listed US companies\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Pitchbook, WorldBank, Bloomberg, CapitalIQ, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Publicly listed companies are all US companies listed on stock exchanges. PE-backed deal sizes typically range from US$25 million to US$1 billion. However, they can vary widely, with some deals involving smaller companies and others involving much larger companies.\nAs access to investment capital has grown, companies are choosing to stay private longer, reflecting a mentality that has become commonplace in Silicon Valley and elsewhere. For example, Uber Technologies (NASDAQ: UBER) and Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB), two of the largest technology initial public offerings (IPOs) ever, remained private for 10 and 12 years respectively  before  listing. \nThe appeal of private markets\nKey Private Investment strategies have meaningfully outperformed the Russell  2000  Index  over  the  past  3-,  5-,  10-,  15-  and  20-year periods.\nFigure 5: Venture Capital and Buyout/Growth Strategies have outperformed public markets\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Cambridge Associates. Note: Net annualized internal rates of return from inception to September 30, 2023; Russell 2000 Index is an mPME index (modified public market equivalent). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.\nFor high-net-worth investors with a tolerance for illiquidity, Private  investments  -  including  Private  Equity,  Credit  and Real  Estate  -  can be efficient sources of return, generally providing a premium over their public market counterparts and access to companies that may not be available to the typical  public  market  investor. \nIt  is  not  uncommon  for  an ultra-high-net-worth client today to allocate between 16%-24%  of their  portfolio  to  Private  Investments.  Similarly, endowments  and  other  institutional  investors  often  hold between 10%-25% of their portfolio in Private Investments.\nFor us at Morgan Stanley, we  continue  to  raise  our  allocation  to  Alternatives across our Core+ profiles. Most profiles have adopted a neutral Alternatives allocation of around 23% versus around 20% in our prior  published  SAA.\n\nWithin our defensive assets' allocation, persistent high cash rates and solid corporate balance sheets make Private Debt  the  most  attractive  asset  class  in  absolute  and relative terms. \nWithin our growth assets’ allocation, equities will likely face  some  headwinds  despite  a  promising CAPEX cycle  ahead  -  including  mildly  expensive  valuations and  the  risk  of  a  recession  in  the  next  seven-year cycle.  In  addition,  we  expect  higher  rates  and  less accommodative  central  banks  to  keep  volatility  more elevated. \n\nIn this context, most alternative asset classes  offer  an  appealing  option,  whether  from  an absolute or risk-adjusted basis. \nThe risks prospective investors must consider\n\n\nA wide range of potential outcomes: Private Investments present several initial hurdles for investors.  In  addition  to  lesser  transparency,  liquidity  and accessibility than traditional asset classes, these investments  show  much  greater  dispersion  in  their  return and risk profiles, at both a strategy and manager level.\n\n(Much) higher fees versus long-only active funds: The management fee typically  ranges  from  1.5%  to  2.5%  paid  on  committed capital. There is also a carried interest, which is a share of any  profits  that  the  General  Partner  (GP)  receives  as compensation,  which typically  ranges between 10% and 20%, and is paid as soon as and as long as the cumulative realised return from the fund’s inception to date exceeds the hurdle rate.\n\nComplexity risk: Complexity  is particularly prevalent in asset-based lending and structured credit. These  forms  of  Private  Credit  require  deep  due diligence  and an understanding  of  the  underlying  collateral and  risk  profiles  of  the  structure’s  tranches. For  Private Equity, there  isn’t  a  standardised  mandated  level  of company reporting which adds layers of complexity. \n\nManager experience and sector  expertise are necessary  in  constraining  complexity risk, particularly in operationally intensive deals. However, investors can potentially earn a premium as compensation for complexity.\nFigure 9: The Illiquidity premium can potentially be a benefit\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIMA, Bloomberg, MSCI Barra, Citigroup, Barclays Capital, JP Morgan, Bank of America MerrillLynch, S&P GSCI, MIT-CRE, FTSE, Global Property Research, UBS, NCREIF, Hedge Fund Research, Cambridge Associates, Blackstone.\n\n\nIlliquidity risk: Some funds will have a long-term lock-up period (from five to 15 years). For funds offering partial liquidity, investors might  find  that  extreme  events,  such  as  the  GFC  or  the COVID crisis,  can result in  a fund  widening  sell spreads  or limiting the number of withdrawals. Another risk, similar to what was experienced in 2022, is a  slower  deal-making  and  exit  environment  in Private Equity,  which  in  turn  slows  the  associated  distributions. \n\nMarket risk: Market factors that are either  strategy-specific  or  broad  can  impact  longer-dated funds,  just  as  they  do  more  conventional  liquid  funds, resulting  in  an  illiquidity  premium  that  is  not  always constant. \n\nFigure 10: During years when the public equity markets strongly declined, Private Equity and Venture Capital almost always outperformed, although they did record negative absolute performance in most cases\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Private equity index data sourced from Cambridge Associates benchmarking database and is represented by US Buyout, US Growth Equity and US Venture Capital. Cambridge returns are pooled Horizon IRRs net to limited partners; Bloomberg. TR = Total return. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.\nPrivate Equity: Stocks vs Funds\nWhy  wouldn’t  investors  simply  invest  in  the  managers themselves – what are the benefits and drawbacks of this approach?\n1) Both listed and unlisted Private Equity - as buy-and-hold investments - have been outperforming the broader listed equity market since index inception in 2000, with the S&P Listed Private Equity Index outperforming Global listed equities by 1.3% p.a.\n\nHowever, unlisted  Private  Equity  outperformance has been even better, as it has more than doubled the  MSCI  ACWI  ex-Australia  Index  performance over this period (12.3% versus 6.1% respectively).\n\n2) The risk profiles are very different. The S&P Listed Private Equity Index has the highest volatility (25.5%) of all the market segments surveyed over this  period,  while  the  Cambridge  Private  Equity Index  has  the  lowest  (10.9%).  It  is  also  worth highlighting  that  drawdowns  of  the  S&P  Listed Private Equity Index are significant.\nFigure 15: Listed Private Managers’ stocks have had deeper drawdowns than MSCI World Index\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Bloomberg, MSCM Research.\n3) Investors have been provided with a similar risk/return trade-off, and the higher risk inherent to listed Private Equity has transformed into higher relative returns.\n\n4) On the positive side, we note that the S&P Listed Private Equity Index has offered higher upside than downside capture versus Global Equities, Financials and Small Caps. However, once again, the metrics are overall more favourable to unlisted Private Equity.\nTherefore, based on the above analysis, owing to the leverage, volatility and skewness of returns, investing through a Private Equity fund is preferable to investments in listed Private Equity indices from a portfolio construction standpoint given this type of investment can essentially improve the risk/return profile of a portfolio.\nHow to evaluate a private market manager as a stock picker\nOn aggregate, we do not believe listed Private Equity is a good substitute for unlisted Private Market Alternative investments  in  diversified  portfolios.  However,  this doesn’t mean listed Private Market managers cannot add substantial  value  as  a  ‘portfolio  tilt’  within  the  equities component of a portfolio. \nFigure 18: We forecast Private Market Managers to generate stronger asset under management growth and higher fees\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Oliver Wyman Global Asset Management Model, Morningstar, Mercer, Company Reporting. Size of circle indicates size of AuM for asset class in 2028E.\nHere is what underpins our bullish narrative on private market stocks:\n1) First and foremost, from an investment outlook standpoint, the alternative asset manager industry is standing on solid fundamentals.\n\nAlmost 90% of US firms with revenue >US$100m are private in the US.\nThere is currently around triple the number of Private Equity-backed businesses than public companies in the US (see Figure 3).\nOver US$14 trillion of private capital is compounding at a double-digit pace.\n\n2) We  believe  the  rise  of  Private  Markets  and  their increasing influence over public markets will be an enduring theme. In particular, we see the Asset Management industry  as  a  key  beneficiary  of  the  ‘Ageing’  -  or  rather ‘Longevity’ - theme. Morgan Stanley estimates a US$400 billion incremental revenue opportunity for wealth and asset managers by 2028. \nFigure 20: We see a strong increase in revenues for the Private Markets in the medium term\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Oliver Wyman Wealth Model, Oliver Wyman Global Asset Management Model.\n3) Whilst valuations are elevated, we remain constructive in the short term as well, amid capital markets’ resurgence. Improving  deal  activity  will likely see Private Markets asset managers ‘flywheel spinning  faster’ via  accelerating  deployment  of  large  dry powder  levels,  which  in  turn  supports  management  fees and also asset realisations. We expect this to drive performance fees higher and increase distributions to listed Private  Equity  clients.\nHowever, it is important to be selective among the Alternative  asset  managers’ stocks,  particularly  given  the current 2x premium valuation relative to history. Valuations across the group suggest a high bar for earnings and reflect significant optimism. \nFigure 24: Alternative managers are no longer trading at a discount to the broad US equities market\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Company data, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Note: Data as of October 8, 2024.\nFrom  a  fundamental  standpoint,  Morgan  Stanley  prefers Alternative  asset  managers  ranking  well  on  1)  solutions capabilities, 2) Alternative asset capabilities, 3) insurance/annuity offerings, and 4) wealth distribution capabilities,  including the  US 401k/retirement  channel and private wealth channel.\nOur key picks (Funds and stocks)\n\n\nAres Diversified Credit Fund: The Fund is our preferred Global Private Credit strategy as it  benefits  from  Ares’  substantial  scale  and  deal flow  in Private Debt markets, a well-resourced team of seasoned Private Credit investors, and a robust investment process, including a quantitative and proprietary approach to portfolio construction\n\nKKR Private Equity (K-PRIME) Fund: K-PRIME  Fund  provides  direct  access  to  all  KKR  private equity investment opportunities of mainly core and traditional buyout strategies without many of the limitations of direct investing. The resources and capability of the firm provide complete support from deal origination, execution, portfolio construction and risk management.\n\nBlackstone (NYSE: BX): Morgan Stanley sees BX as an under-appreciated beneficiary of an improved macro backdrop, capital markets recovery, and rise of retail, private credit/insurance and AI. Across the platform, investment activity is accelerating and US$170 billion of dry powder yields significant purchasing power to navigate and invest through attractive opportunities.\n\nTPG (NASDAQ: TPG): Morgan Stanley sees meaningful growth ahead as significant secular tailwinds and strong management execution  underpins  our  growth  outlook  for  +16%  /  +24% FRE and +31% / +23% EPS growth y/y in 2025 and 2026. We  see  a  high-quality,  capital-light  business  model  that offers an attractive way to play the secular growth in private markets and the ongoing capital markets activity rebound.\n\nCVC Capital Partners (AMS: CVC): CVC  was  recently  added  to  Morgan Stanley’s  Financials' Finest list given its higher skew to carry recovery as activity continues  to  improve.  The  declining  rate  path  and  more supportive capital markets environment should benefit CVC more, driving approximately 25% earnings 2024-26e CAGR, at the upper end of global peers. \n\nVanEck Global Listed Private Equity ETF (ASX: GPEQ): This ETF aims to track the performance of the LPX 50 TR AUD Index, a market capitalisation-weighted index providing exposure to a portfolio of the 50 largest and most liquid global listed Private  Equity  companies. \n\n\nYou can read the full 17-page paper by downloading the PDF that is attached to this wire.\n\nLearn more about Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nMorgan Stanley's fundamental objective is to provide first-class service while helping their clients achieve their financial goals. Their Financial Advisers harness the firm’s global resources and intellectual capital to help create a financial plan tailored to you and your goals. Learn more here\n\n \n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? 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