Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will headline a busy week of central-bank officials' public remarks on Thursday. Investors and economists will be listening closely for clues about the Fed's interest rate decision for December and the outlook for policy in 2025.
Powell will take part in a moderated discussion at the Dallas Regional Chamber in Dallas on Thursday at 3 p.m. Eastern time, or 2 p.m. Central time.
Powell will be giving his first public remarks since his post-meeting press conference on Nov. 7, when Fed policymakers reduced their rate target by 0.25 percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, following a half-point cut in September.
The Fed chair stayed on script then, describing a solid U.S. economy at present but with significant uncertainty in the outlook. Monetary policy will remain data-dependent, with the Fed making rate decisions meeting by meeting, Powell said.
"We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation," he said then. "At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the [Federal Open Market] Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. We are not on any preset course."
Powell also didn't say much of substance about the implications of Tuesday's election result, which saw Republican Donald Trump take control of the White House. "I'm not going to talk about anything that relates directly or indirectly to the election," he said. When asked if he would resign if Trump asks him to, Powell gave a simple "No." His term as Fed chair expires in May 2026.
Powell may weigh in on recent economic data, including a largely as-expected inflation report for October which was published on Wednesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index gained 0.2% during the month and climbed 2.6% higher from a year earlier. Core CPI inflation was up 0.3% in October and up 3.2% year over year. Housing-related prices accounted for more than half the increase in the headline CPI last month.
In his recent remarks, Powell has emphasized balanced risks to the Fed's dual mandate of stable inflation and supporting maximum employment. He has described the Fed's rate cut path as a "normalization" of policy.
Interest-rate futures market pricing on Wednesday implied a greater than 80% chance of a quarter-point decrease in the federal-funds rate at the Fed's Dec. 17-18 meeting, with the balance of odds in favor of no cut.
The median forecast in policymakers' September update to their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections was for one percentage point of rate cuts in 2024, followed by another point of cuts in 2025. Officials will update the SEP, or so-called "dot plot," at the December meeting, giving them a chance to signal the path of policy in 2025 and beyond.
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