Trump, tariffs, and one unpredictable economy in 2025

Yahoo Finance11-15 22:20

Listen and subscribe to Opening Bid on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you find your favorite podcasts. It’s no secret that all eyes are on the incoming Trump administration and what it ...

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President Joe Biden largely re-upped Trump's policy in May — and added new tariffs on certain sectors on top.\"We have learned [there] cannot just be tariffs on one partic","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"yahoo.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","AAPL":"苹果","LU1815336760.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","NVDY":"YIELDMAX NVDA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) INC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","NVDX":"T-REX 2X LONG NVIDIA DAILY TARGET ETF","BK4588":"碎股","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","NVDU":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","NVDS":"Tradr 1.5X Short NVDA Daily ETF","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","BAC":"美国银行","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","NVDD":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","NVD":"GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF","LU2361044949.HKD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0203202063.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"A2X\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD"},"translate_title":"特朗普、关税和2025年不可预测的经济","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1,"BAC":1,"NVDA":0.9,"NVD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6},"content_text":"Listen and subscribe to Opening Bid on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.\nIt’s no secret that all eyes are on the incoming Trump administration and what it might mean for every aspect of living, including markets and the economy. \nOne term likely to take center stage in the coming weeks as Trump builds out his Cabinet is the reemergence of tariffs and the larger implication on trade and the economy. \n“We think and anticipate tariffs will be implemented,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, to Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sozzi on his Opening Bid podcast (see video above or listen below).\nLuzzetti said tariffs will negatively impact economic growth.\n\nTariffs were a significant measure during the first Trump administration. \nTrump imposed more than $300 billion in duties on Chinese goods. President Joe Biden largely re-upped Trump's policy in May — and added new tariffs on certain sectors on top.\nBiden exclusively told Sozzi at the time the fresh tariffs were about \"being fair.\"\nLooking ahead to the new administration, one proposed move involves a baseline tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports with an eye toward bolstering US manufacturing. Trump has also floated stiffer tariffs on China, and new ones on Mexico.\n“The jury’s out. We know the short run effects [from tariffs] so far from 2019, which is that it improved the trade balance with China, but didn’t necessarily improve the trade balance more broadly,” Luzzetti said.\nThe great economic unknown on tariffs was echoed by top leaders such as Bank of America (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan at this week's Yahoo Finance Invest conference.\nWatch more from the Invest conference here\nLuzzetti ultimately views the data from Trump's first term as useful when forecasting what could be in the cards this time around. \nThe tariffs of 2019 focused heavily on China alongside materials like steel and aluminum. Luzzetti notes that what the economy of 2019 experienced “was some uplift in inflation.\"\n“[The] economy did come under pressure as a result of the tariffs,” he said. “Now, it sparked a trade war. Financial markets took it very negatively.”\nChina experienced a devaluation in its currency and in turn, global market sell-offs ensued. \n“But you can actually see the manufacturing sector, industrial production had picked up in 2018 and then it was down negative in 2019,” Luzzetti pointed out. “We have clear evidence that tariffs do work as we expect, which is a negative supply shock for the economy in the short term.”\nSince the election results last Tuesday, markets have ignored tariff risk, in some cases rising to record highs on news of Trump’s victory. Closely watched stocks with global financial exposure such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) have also hovered near records.\n\"We have learned [there] cannot just be tariffs on one particular country, because it is unlikely that [it] reorients that production, say, out of China into the US,” Luzzetti warns. “There’s a lot of other stopping places that you get to before that.”\nGrace L. Williams is a writer for Yahoo Finance.\nThree times each week, Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi fields insight-filled conversations and chats with the biggest names in business and markets on Opening Bid. You can find more episodes on our video hub or watch on your preferred streaming service.\nClick here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks\nRead the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2483374730"}