By Connor Hart
China's decision to end an incentive on exports of aluminum is jolting the market, boosting prospects for aluminum makers and raising costs for a host of industries that use the metal.
The measure, which the Ministry of Finance on Friday said is effective Dec. 1, will materially increase export costs for the country's aluminum-products producers, analysts said.
The change boosted prices for the metal and also stands to make Chinese aluminum less competitive on the international market, where China has been the dominant player for decades.
Aluminum futures closed up 5.3% to $2649.50 for their best one-day gain since January 2023 on the London Metal Exchange.
Higher aluminum prices and less production in China will help manufacturers such as Alcoa and Century Aluminum. On the other hand, industries that use the metal to make everything from cars to soda cans may see higher costs weigh on their bottom line.
Shares of Alcoa ended Friday's trading session up 6.8% at $44.02. Century Aluminum's stock closed with a gain of 7.1% to $22.62, after hitting a 52-week high of $24.21 earlier in the day.
China, after building up its smelting capacity to produce more aluminum, has been scaling back of late, according to B. Riley Securities analyst Lucas Pipes, including implementing a capacity limit on the metal in 2017. That has given companies outside of China an opening to gain market share. Ending the tax rebate provides another opening for competitors.
"Smelters around the world were not able to compete with Chinese material when China was massively increasing its smelting capacity," Pipes said. "I think we're at a new paradigm."
Since China began capping its aluminum production, Alcoa has restarted some capacity that had been previously idled in Brazil. Century Aluminum discussed building a new smelter earlier this year.
The cancellation of China's export-tax rebate may further invigorate aluminum producers' efforts to grow their operations and expand their market share, Pipes said. Any initiatives, however, would likely be tempered by the exceedingly high cost of manufacturing the metal, he added.
Analysts at IGN said that higher aluminum prices will ding a number of industries. That includes the automotive industry, which uses the metal to manufacture vehicle frames, and drink makers, who package sodas and beers in aluminum cans, as among the most affected.
Ultimately, those higher costs should trickle down to consumers.
"When aluminum is more expensive," Pipes of B. Riley said, "then all of the products made out of aluminum are slightly more expensive."
Write to Connor Hart at connor.hart@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 15, 2024 17:29 ET (22:29 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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