10月CPI符合预期！美联储12月降息稳了？

金十数据11-13

北京时间周三21:30，美国公布10月CPI数据，CPI年率录得2.6%，符合预期的2.6%，高于前值的2.4%，符合市场预期，为三个月高位，止步“六连跌”；10月季调后CPI月率录得0.2%，符合预期和前值的0.2%。核心CPI年率录得3.3%，符合预期和前值的3.3%；核心CPI月率录得0.3%，符合预期和前值的0.3%。这些数据突显了抗击通胀的缓慢和令人沮丧的本质，通胀在更大范围的下行...

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Has the Fed cut interest rates in December stabilized?","themeId":"712ed62d565aa065fdf06804d94f00db","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"北京时间周三21:30，美国公布10月CPI数据，CPI年率录得2.6%，符合预期的2.6%，高于前值的2.4%，符合市场预期，为三个月高位，止步“六连跌”；10月季调后CPI月率录得0.2%，符合预期和前值的0.2%。\n核心CPI年率录得3.3%，符合预期和前值的3.3%；核心CPI月率录得0.3%，符合预期和前值的0.3%。\n这些数据突显了抗击通胀的缓慢和令人沮丧的本质，通胀在更大范围的下行道路上经常出现横向波动——有时一次持续数月。最新的数据，加上强劲的消费者支出和经济增长，将使美联储官员在讨论未来几个月降低借贷成本的速度时保持谨慎。\n美国CPI数据公布后，现货黄金短线拉升7美元，美元指数短线下挫近30点，随后快速收回。非美货币普涨，欧元兑美元短线拉升近30点，英镑兑美元短线拉升超30点，美元兑日元短线下挫45点。\n\nCOMEX最活跃黄金期货合约北京时间11月13日21:30--21:31一分钟内买卖盘面瞬间成交3482手，交易合约总价值9.14亿美元\n\n\n\n\n交易员加大了对美联储12月降息的押注。据CME“美联储观察”，美联储到12月维持当前利率不变的概率为24.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为75.7%（CPI公布前分别为37.9%、62.1%）。到明年1月维持当前利率不变的概率为16.5%，累计降息25个基点的概率为59.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为24.3%。（CPI公布前分别为26.5%、54.9%、18.6%）。\n美联储卡什卡利表示，“CPI报告整体数据确认了我们目前的趋势。” 还没准备好宣布通胀会停留在2%的目标之上，目前尚未看到明显的通胀上行风险；更大的风险在于经济可能陷入停滞。劳动力市场的状况良好，希望能够保持这一状态。更高的生产率指向更高的中性利率水平。\n分析师Enda Curran表示，正如预期的那样，住房成本仍然是通胀的最大来源。劳工统计局表示，10月份住房占月度所有项目增长的一半以上。10月份汽车保险指数有所下降，但仍比一年前高出14%。\n一项受到密切关注的衡量住房成本的指标在上个月加速增长，衡量房主住房成本的业主等价租金（OER）上涨了0.4%，较9月份的0.3%有所上升。分析师Chris Anstey表示，由于抵押贷款利率不再下降，住房成本在一段时间内可能很难出现明显的通胀放缓趋势。\n虽然市场对物价涨幅不大感到宽慰，但值得注意的是，0.3%的核心CPI涨幅使得通胀趋势仍高于美联储2%的目标。这份报告对美联储来说有个好消息，剔除了住房成本的所谓“超级核心”服务指数在10月份的涨幅是三个月来最小的，0.31%的涨幅略低于今年0.35%的平均水平。\n华尔街日报指出，尽管通胀数据趋稳，但美联储决策者目前看来仍有可能在下个月举行今年最后一次会议时再降息25个基点。这首先是因为，尽管一路磕磕碰碰，但通胀似乎仍处于降温趋势。此外，数据中仍存在一定程度的“追赶型通胀”。美联储官员还认为，目前的短期利率水平是限制性的，这意味着如果不进一步降息，就业市场可能会比他们预期的进一步降温，甚至使经济面临衰退的风险。\n华尔街日报补充道，美国劳工部将于12月11日发布下一份消费者通胀报告，比美联储会议提前一周。如果数据比美联储官员希望的要坚挺得多，他们可能会选择暂时暂停进一步降息。如果定于12月6日发布的11月就业报告显示就业出现反弹，从而证实上个月的放缓仅仅是飓风和罢工相关问题的反映，那就更是如此了。\n对通胀的不满帮助美国共和党人特朗普在上周的总统选举中获胜，击败了民主党候选人兼副总统哈里斯。然而，经济学家预测，如果特朗普继续推行他的经济政策，包括减税和提高进口商品关税，明年的通胀率将会上升。此外，特朗普还誓言要大规模驱逐非法移民，经济学家说，这将减少劳动力供应，增加企业的成本，然后转嫁给消费者。尽管美联储预计将在12月再次降息，但经济学家认为明年进一步降息的空间有限。\n嘉信理财英国董事总经理表示，大选在一定程度上搅乱了未来几个月的前景。和其他许多人一样，他将密切关注即将上任的特朗普政府的关税、移民和减税计划。由于在12月美联储会议之前还有一次CPI数据公布，他不会过于看重这次数据。“对美联储下一次利率决议的预期可能不会受到今天这份报告的影响，因为目前美联储更倾向于就业方面的任务。”\n持续更新中……","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2483883173"}