BOE’s Mann Says UK Economy Would Be Hit by Global Trade Tensions

Bloomberg11-14

(Bloomberg) -- Bank of England rate-setter Catherine Mann warned that shockwaves from a global trade war sparked by Donald Trump would hit UK growth and inflation.Mann said on Thursday that even ...

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BOE policymakers would need to balance the inflationary effect of any trade war with the disinflationary impact from a weaker economy.“Uncertainty about trade policy in itself may have damaging economic effects and increase volatility,” Mann said in a speech at the Society of Professional Economists annual conference. “The latest political developments across the Atlantic have not made a disorderly trade scenario less likely, which would have consequences for output and inflation in the UK.”Mann said protectionism, climate change and a more expansionary fiscal policy are among the threats that could mean a more volatile economy. She said that inflation volatility will likely mean higher interest rates in the long-run.She said that the “Great Moderation” — the period of stable economies and low inflation before the financial crisis — may have been down to “luck” as well as policymaking.Mann is the most hawkish rate-setter on the Monetary Policy Committee and was the sole official to vote against last week’s quarter-point cut in the BOE benchmark rate.She reiterated her caution against rate cuts, saying she prefers an “activist” approach where she waits for more evidence that inflation has been tamed before loosening policy quickly.“In the current context, an activist stance holds the policy rate firmly until sufficient evidence on diminished inflation persistence is revealed; and then to move forcefully,” she said.The MPC has guided markets toward a “gradual” easing in policy, prompting traders to fully price in just two more quarter-point rate reductions by the end of 2025. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first budget is expected to keep the BOE wary over rushing into more cuts given it is expected to be a boost to inflation.©2024 Bloomberg L.P.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2483893383"}