US natgas prices edge up 2% on forecasts for more cold, heating demand

By Scott DiSavino

Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 2% on Monday on forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand next week than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.7 cents, or 2.4%, to $2.890 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:37 a.m. EST (1337 GMT).

With gas futures up about 25% over the past four weeks, speculators last week cut their net short futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges to the lowest since mid October, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.

Capping recent price increases was another forecast for mild weather and less demand this week that should allow utilities to keep injecting more gas than usual into storage for another week.

Analysts said utilities likely added more gas to storage than usual during the week ended Nov. 15. If correct, that would be the first time inventories rose by more than usual for five weeks in a row since October 2022.

There was currently about 7% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Prior to the last month or so, however, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 straight weeks because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained relatively soft since then.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, however, output hit a two-week high of 102.3 bcfd on Nov. 16, up from a recent nine-month low of 98.5 bcfd on Nov. 10.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 28 before turning colder than normal from Nov. 29-Dec. 3.

With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108.3 bcfd this week to 117.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher.

The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.4 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Gas prices held near an 11-month high of $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 on worries Russia was cutting off supplies at the same time colder winter weather was boosting heating demand. NG/EU

Gas was also trading at a 14-week high of around $14 per mmBtu at the Japan-Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

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For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

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For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

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