Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0644 GMT - Thailand's economy looks set to hold up well, despite the fading boost from tourism, Capital Economics says in a note. 3Q GDP accelerated and the pick-up in economic growth was broad-based, says market economist Shivaan Tandon. Loose fiscal policy will likely support growth in the coming quarters, particularly once the government's cash handout scheme kicks off, helping to offset a slowdown in the tourism sector, he says. CE expects Thailand's economy to grow 3.0% in 2025, compared with its projection for 2.5% growth in 2024. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0640 GMT - Morgan Stanley Research is bullish on G-10 duration, it says in a global strategy outlook for 2025. "We suggest an overweight duration stance towards most government bonds over the first six months of 2025," Morgan Stanley analysts say. They expect U.S. Treasury yields to decline as they forecast to Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more than priced in by markets. The picture is similar in Europe and the U.K. Potential downside risks to growth from trade and immigration reforms mean that the short end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve will likely be biased lower, driving a steepening of the U.S. yield curve, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0552 GMT - The improvement in China's monthly economic-activity data is likely to persist as policies stay accommodative, CCB International analysts Li Cui and Huiting Yan say in a research note. Fiscal spending should accelerate in 4Q and catch up with annual objectives, financed through debt proceeds and budget adjustment funds, the analysts say. Continued policy support and still-positive global trade are likely to boost annual growth to the government's 2024 target of 5.0%, the CCB analysts say. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0516 GMT - The U.S. dollar is likely to strengthen more against Asian currencies in 2025, five members of Goldman Sachs' economics research say in a report. The "sharpest" move higher in dollar versus Asian currencies is expected to be "front-loaded on tariff risks, continued U.S. exceptionalism and still positive rate differentials between the USD and low-yield Asian markets," they say. China will probably bear the brunt of U.S. tariffs, and a 20% increase in the effective tariff rate on Chinese imports could shave 0.7 percentage point off China's GDP growth, they say. Under this scenario, USD/CNY could rise toward 7.4000-7.5000, they add. USD/CNY is 0.1% higher at 7.2367. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 18, 2024 01:44 ET (06:44 GMT)

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