Roblox: A Transformative Force Reshaping The Gaming Landscape

seekingalpha11-19 21:00

User-generated content platforms, like Roblox, are poised for significant growth, transforming game creation, distribution, and experience akin to YouTube's evolution.Roblox aims to capture 10% of the...

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JasonDoiy  The following segment was excerpted from this fund letter.  User-generated content platforms are likely to see formidable growth in the coming years. Given the industry trends we’ve discussed - limited engagement time and increasingly difficult game industry economics - user-generated content platforms (where games are developed by micro studios, semi-professionals, and hobbyist creators) open up a new dimension of gameplay. This evolution is strikingly reminiscent of YouTube's ascent. The platform began with amateur videos - often simple clips of cats - but as it became the central hub for video content, it attracted professional creators seeking the largest audience. The aggregation of both content and viewers created a virtuous cycle that reinforced YouTube's dominance. Similarly, we're witnessing a long tail of hobbyist-created games in the gaming industry. While many of these games cater to niche interests, a few breakout hits rise to the top, propelled by innovative game dynamics and the sheer accessibility of the platforms. This diversifies the types of games available and disrupts traditional distribution and monetisation models. Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) has firmly established itself as the dominant player in user-generated gaming within Western markets. Meanwhile, Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) has developed a similar ecosystem in China with its WeChat Mini-games platform. Owning both gives us a unique vantage point to assess the evolving landscape of user-generated gaming platforms globally. At its recent investor day, Roblox set an ambitious target of reaching 10% of gaming content revenue, of which it estimates the total pool is around $180bn (for context, in the last twelve months, it made $4bn in bookings). We think this will be a challenging target, but it will be positive for the business directionally. The reason is that Roblox has spent the last three years heavily investing in re-engineering its game platform to be high fidelity, performant and widely available across platforms. They also share economics with their creators to the point now that the absolute numbers in highly engaged games are enough to support a small game studio. The result is that the quality of games has materially improved, attracting additional engagement - particularly from older users. For game developers, Roblox presents an increasingly attractive platform. Developers gain instant access to 79 million daily active users (4x that in quarterly active users). More importantly, their games become immediately accessible across iOS, Android, game consoles, PC, and VR without developing separate versions for each platform. This cross-platform accessibility dramatically shifts studio economics. Developers can avoid the costs of hiring infrastructure specialists or platform-specific engineers and sidestep common support issues on various devices. For example, content creators upload videos to YouTube without worrying about distribution logistics, and developers can focus solely on creating engaging games while Roblox handles the rest. This platform architecture has drawbacks. Roblox needs to continuously spend money to make its platform safe for its younger audience, upgrade its infrastructure, and improve its game engine. It also pays a significant portion of every dollar to the app platforms (Apple and Google). The next opportunity for Roblox is to monetise its vast user base with advertising. We expect this will be an increasingly important part of the investment thesis over the next few quarters to show that Roblox can generate the types of returns on capital that we think it can. For Roblox, the future growth in this segment isn't just about more games - it's about a fundamental shift in how games are created, distributed, and experienced. User-generated content platforms are not just a new bucket but a transformative force reshaping the gaming landscape.   Disclaimer Collective investment schemes are generally medium to long-term investments. The value of participatory interest (units) or the investment may go down and up. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Collective investment schemes are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A schedule of fees, charges, minimum fees, and maximum commissions, as well as a detailed description of how performance fees are calculated and applied, is available on request from FundRock Management Company ('RF') ('PTY') Ltd (\"Manager\"). The Manager does not guarantee the capital or the portfolio's return. The Manager may close the portfolio to new investors to manage it efficiently according to its mandate. The Manager ensures fair treatment of investors by not offering preferential fees or liquidity terms to any investor within the same strategy. The Manager is registered and approved by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority under CISCA. The Manager retains full legal responsibility for the portfolio. FirstRand Bank Limited is the appointed trustee. SaltLight Capital Management ('PTY') Ltd, FSP No. 48286, is authorised under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37 of 2002 to render investment management services  Click to enlarge  Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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