American Tower: An Undervalued Dividend Stock Benefiting From Durable Competitive Advantages

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American Tower, a real estate investment trust that owns, operates, and develops broadcast communications infrastructure worldwide, is now a $94 billion (by market cap) real estate titan.AMT increased...

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(NYSE:AMT) is a real estate investment trust that owns, operates, and develops broadcast communications infrastructure across the world. Founded in 1995, American Tower is now a $94 billion (by market cap) real estate titan that employs more than 5,000 people. American Tower has a presence in 25 countries worldwide. The company's main tower portfolio includes nearly 150,000 communications sites - split roughly 2/3 international and 1/3 US and Canada. Also, after the acquisition of CoreSite Realty Corporation in 2021, American Tower now owns and operates a portfolio of interconnected data center facilities across the US. American Tower expects this acquisition to enhance the value of its existing tower real estate through emerging edge computing opportunities, although the data centerpiece is a small part of the overall puzzle. The main business model is very simple: American Tower builds and then rents out vertical antenna sites. Tenants sign multiyear leases in order to access these towers and install certain equipment. This equipment is used for a variety of purposes and used to carry out services such as telephony, mobile data, radio, and broadcast television. The convergence of 5G and IoT makes the company's towers, and the equipment they carry, even more critical than they already were before. From AI-powered smartphones to vehicles embedded with advanced infotainment systems (which are now starting to drive themselves), demand for reliable, consistent, high-speed, low-latency data on a 24/7 timetable is rapidly rising. We almost cannot live without this high-speed data access. Our various everyday devices are becoming more interconnected (i.e., IoT), which naturally translates into escalating demand for high-speed, low-latency data - playing right into the hands of American Tower and its army of towers and interconnected data centers. This interconnection of technology is penetrating all aspects of modern-day society. One can easily imagine a future (and one not all that far off from today) in which AI-powered robots - for consumer and/or commercial purposes - require 24/7 access to high-quality, high-speed data in order to remain functional. On the other hand, it's difficult to imagine a future in which we use less technology and demand for all of this data goes down. So demand is trending in American Tower's favor over time. Furthermore, American Tower has an advantage built right into the type of real estate it specializes in. This infrastructure real estate can be easily leveraged, which makes it uniquely unlike any other type of real estate. Once a tower is built, the immediate scalability is huge. Each tower is a bit of a compounding money machine for American Tower: Adding tenants, equipment, and upgrades results in much higher returns per tower, as revenue is added with minimal incremental cost. Well, American Tower has built an empire of these compounding money machines all over the world. In the process of doing that, the REIT has become a compounding money machine unto itself, leading to rising revenue, profit, and dividends. Dividend Growth, Growth Rate, Payout Ratio and Yield American Tower has increased its dividend for 14 consecutive years. The 10-year dividend growth rate is 19.1%, which is astounding (REITs are typically income plays not known for growth). American Tower has a longstanding history of raising its dividend at a nice clip on a quarterly basis. This is impressive and highly unusual (most REITs will increase the dividend once per year). But the engine is slowing. The five-year dividend growth rate is 16%, and the three-year dividend growth rate is 13.4%. A pretty clear deceleration, and it's gotten worse. The current $1.62/share quarterly dividend is actually the same as it was a year ago, as American Tower has already right-sized the 2024 dividend and is guiding for flat near-term dividend growth. The total dividend payout for 2024 is roughly 4% higher than what it was for 2023, and I expect little improvement over the near term. American Tower has matured and isn't seeing the kind of business growth it used to, which is impacting the company's ability to increase the dividend at a rate shareholders have become accustomed to. Put simply, it's starting to look more and more like the REIT that it is. Why do I say that? Well, because a REIT is legally required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders, REITs are often income plays with modest growth. The market has already sniffed this out and adjusted the stock's yield higher in order to reflect American Tower's true nature. That's far higher than what this stock has usually offered. It's 120 basis points higher than its own five-year average.  Is the higher yield worth the slowdown in growth? I suppose that depends on what kind of investor you are, but one could argue the lower valuation (which we'll get into) and higher yield have \"de-risked\" the shares through the repricing. American Tower's dividend does appear to be easily covered, as the payout ratio is 61.5% (based on midpoint AFFO/share guidance for FY 2024). For a REIT, that's actually quite a low payout ratio. Overall, even though near-term dividend growth is subdued, American Tower's history, business model, and payout ratio all add up to a supportive framework for sizable dividend raises over the years to come, and one starts off with a respectable yield of nearly 3.5%. This is a differentiated, infrastructure-facing REIT offering a much higher yield than usual. In my view, it's a compelling setup. Revenue and Earnings Growth As compelling as the numbers may be, though, many of these dividend metrics are looking in the rearview mirror. However, investors must always be looking through the windshield, as the capital of today gets risked for the rewards of tomorrow. As such, I'll now build out a forward-looking growth trajectory for the business, which will be of service when the time comes to estimate fair value. I'll first show you what the business has done over the last decade in terms of its top-line and bottom-line growth. And I'll then reveal a professional prognostication for near-term profit growth. Amalgamating the proven past with a future forecast in this manner should give us the information necessary to make a judgment call on where the business might be going from here. American Tower advanced its revenue from $4.1 billion in FY 2014 to $11.1 billion in FY 2023. That's a compound annual growth rate of 11.7%. This is surprisingly strong top-line growth. But it's also misleading. With REITs, it's critical to look at profit growth on a per-share basis. Due to the aforementioned legal requirement to distribute almost all of taxable income to shareholders, which is a constraint in terms of internal reinvestment, REITs turn to capital markets (via equity and debt) in order to fund growth. Tapping equity dilutes existing shareholders and makes per-share growth more challenging. That tends to create distortion between absolute revenue growth and profit growth relative to shares outstanding. Also, when assessing profit for a REIT, we want to use funds from operations instead of normal earnings. FFO (or adjusted FFO) is a measure of cash generated by a REIT, which adds depreciation and amortization expenses back to earnings. American Tower grew its AFFO/share from $4.54 to $9.87 over this 10-year period, which is a CAGR of 9%. This 9% mark is a more accurate reflection of American Tower's growth profile as it pertains to the last decade. Again, this is strong, especially for a REIT. I know of few REITs able to sustain near-10% bottom-line growth. Again, though, more recent bottom-line growth has slowed down pretty dramatically, with the most recent quarter showing only 2.3% YOY AFFO/share growth. American Tower may have become a victim of its own success. It's successfully built out a global network of highly profitable antenna sites. This turned American Tower into one of the largest REITs in the world (by market cap). But it's also saturated the field, and its size has made it more challenging to grow on a relative basis. In addition, consolidation in the telecom space has caused downward pressure on tenants per tower and rents. In response to all of this, American Tower has been recently focused on cost control and debt reduction. Looking forward, CFRA currently has no three-year growth forecast for American Tower's FFO/share. It's unfortunate, as I do like to line up the proven past with a future forecast, but CFRA seems to almost always lack growth projections for REITs (for some unknown reason). But there's still much to glean about the possibility of what's to come. CFRA includes a number of passages that I think excellently sum up the investment thesis, including this one: \"We are optimistic about long-term demand, driven by mobile video growth, unlimited data plans, and buildouts in 5G bands. International markets pose the greatest growth opportunity for [American Tower] moving forward, by our analysis, as 4G/5G penetration remains moderate in many international markets such as Latin America (currently about 50%) and Africa (around 15%). [American Tower] will continue investing significantly in these regions while continuing to see healthy organic growth within the U.S. through both tower acquisitions and new builds, in our view. [American Tower] will not increase the dividend in 2024 as it looks to de-lever the balance sheet, but it expects to resume dividend growth again in 2025.\" That's really where things are at with American Tower. It has a great business model, an excellent geographic footprint, and secular tailwinds. An intelligent move to improve the balance sheet comes at the expense of near-term dividend growth, but long-term shareholders should appreciate this. CFRA also highlights American Tower's decision to eliminate its exposure to India, which should further improve the firm: \"On January 4, 2024, [American Tower] entered into an agreement with Data Infrastructure Trust to sell its ownership interest in ATC TIPL ([American Tower]'s India subsidiary) for $2.5B. [American Tower] exited the Indian market, following a few years where high churn weighed on portfolio results. The deal closed on September 12, 2024 and [American Tower] expects to receive $2.2B in proceeds after tax. Proceeds enhance its ability to deleverage and focus on international markets with better growth and lower churn rates.\" American Tower's management is clearly focused on optimizing the asset base and balance sheet, which should bode well for results over the coming years. Although American Tower has a global footprint (although a bit less so after the sale of the India assets), it should be noted the company gets about half of its revenue from the three major US telecom giants -AT&T Inc. (T), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), and T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)- and a majority of the leases are due after 2028 (American Tower's leases tend to run five to ten years). When those leases are renewed, the built-in escalators (~3% in the US) will kick in precisely when American Tower has become a leaner and more focused operation. Also, American Tower's acquisition of CoreSite Realty Corporation was prescient, preparing the business for growing cloud demand and edge computing. But Mr. Market's infamous impatience has caused this stock to suffer from a pretty severe drawdown, now down roughly 35% from recent all-time highs. This drawdown may have been a gift to investors looking to get in now, as the drop has already happened, and it's all about what will happen on a go-forward basis. A severe selloff in the stock against the backdrop of a business optimizing itself could be setting up shareholders for a great run over the coming years. CFRA also touches on this point, noting \"…risks surrounding a potential recession and lower capex spend from telcos in 2024 have been more than priced into valuation, leaving room for upside to shares moving forward.\" While the next year or so will feature no/muted dividend growth, American Tower's longer-term track record easily makes it one of the best REITs out there. And even in this environment of slower growth for American Tower, this year's AFFO/share guidance is still calling for 6.8% YOY growth at the midpoint. If that's a less-than-optimal American Tower, just imagine what an optimized version of this business can do. All in all, while I wouldn't anticipate the ~20% dividend growth of yore, a high single-digit dividend growth rate over the longer run doesn't at all seem like a high hurdle for this business to clear. And the starting yield, which has already been adjusted higher to over 3%, is juicy enough to provide a decent amount of current income while those dividend raises come in and add up. It's really not a bad situation at all. Financial Position Moving over to the balance sheet, American Tower has a relatively good financial position. Now, REITs use leverage by design (by tapping debt for growth), so the balance sheet must be looked at through that lens. Elevated debt loads across the REIT space, in general, is also why I think it makes sense to be cautious with one's overall exposure to REITs. A common measure for a REIT's financial position is the debt/EBITDA ratio. American Tower finished its most recent quarter with a net debt/annualized adjusted EBITDA ratio of 5.2. I see REITs range from 3 to 7 on this ratio, which would put American Tower right about in the middle. I'd like to see a lower ratio here, but American Tower's leverage isn't egregious. American Tower's credit ratings are in investment-grade territory: BBB, S&P; BBB+, Fitch; Baa3, Moody's. It's already a good balance sheet, but the deleveraging will improve things further. Directionally, I'm a fan. Yes, American Tower isn't putting up the kind of growth it used to, but it's still a world-class infrastructure REIT. And with economies of scale, switching costs, and entrenched infrastructure, the company does benefit from durable competitive advantages. Of course, there are risks to consider. Litigation, regulation, and competition are omnipresent risks in every industry. A REIT's capital structure relies on external funding for growth, which exposes the company to volatile capital markets (through equity issuances) and interest rates (through debt issuances). Adding to the rate conversation, higher rates can hurt this particular business model twice over: Debt becomes more expensive to take on and service, and equity can also become more expensive at the same time (because income-sensitive investors suddenly have investment alternatives, which puts downward pressure on the stock's price). American Tower's international footprint offers more growth opportunities, but it also exposes the company to currency exchange rates, idiosyncratic market dynamics, and geopolitics. Customer concentration is a risk, as three major telecommunications companies account for about half of the company's revenue. American Tower's massive scale is an advantage, but it also introduces the law of large numbers and makes growth on a relative basis more challenging. LEO satellites present a technological obsolescence risk to towers, as the possible viability of LEO satellites as an antenna alternative in the future could make towers obsolete. There are certainly some risks to consider, which is also true for any investment. But a lot of risk - perhaps too much risk - has already been priced into the stock after its 35% drawdown… Valuation The P/AFFO ratio, based on this year's guidance at the midpoint, is just 18.5. This is somewhat analogous to a P/E ratio on a normal stock, and it just goes to show how undemanding the valuation has become. Another multiple we can use to judge a REIT's valuation is the cash flow multiple. The P/CF ratio is now down to 15.8, which is well below its own five-year average of 21.1. And the yield, as noted earlier, is significantly higher than its own recent historical average. So the stock looks cheap when looking at basic valuation metrics. But how cheap might it be? What would a rational estimate of intrinsic value look like? I valued shares using a dividend discount model analysis. I factored in a 10% discount rate and a long-term dividend growth rate of 6.5%. To be honest, this kind of dividend growth rate is on the lower end of what I allow for in this kind of model. But I am usually pretty conservative when dealing with REITs, in general. And I think it's warranted in this specific case anyway. This dividend growth rate jibes with what I noted earlier about American Tower's clear ability to grow the dividend at a high single-digit rate over time (notwithstanding the temporary pause on dividend growth). It's obviously nowhere near the ~20% dividend growth rate of American Tower's vaunted past. But it is pretty close to where near-term AFFO/share and dividend growth has been at. The DDM analysis gives me a fair value of $197.18. The reason I use a dividend discount model analysis is because a business is ultimately equal to the sum of all the future cash flow it can provide. The DDM analysis is a tailored version of the discounted cash flow model analysis, as it simply substitutes dividends and dividend growth for cash flow and growth. It then discounts those future dividends back to the present day, to account for the time value of money since a dollar tomorrow is not worth the same amount as a dollar today. I find it to be a fairly accurate way to value dividend growth stocks. I see the stock as fairly valued, at worst, and that's even after a cautious valuation model. But we'll now compare that valuation with where two professional stock analysis firms have come out at. This adds balance, depth, and perspective to our conclusion. Morningstar, a leading and well-respected stock analysis firm, rates stocks on a 5-star system. 1 star would mean a stock is substantially overvalued; 5 stars would mean a stock is substantially undervalued. 3 stars would indicate roughly fair value. Morningstar rates AMT as a 4-star stock, with a fair value estimate of $230.00. CFRA is another professional analysis firm, and I like to compare my valuation opinion to theirs to see if I'm out of line. They similarly rate stocks on a 1-5 star scale, with 1 star meaning a stock is a strong sell and 5 stars meaning a stock is a strong buy. 3 stars is a hold. CFRA rates AMT as a 4-star \"buy\", with a 12-month target price of $240.00. I came out pretty low, but I do approach REITs with a leery stance. Averaging the three numbers out gives us a final valuation of $222.39, which would indicate the stock is possibly 12% undervalued.  Bottom line: American Tower Corp. is one of the largest real estate investment trusts in the world. It's a premier, infrastructure-facing business model that has numerous built-in advantages and tailwinds, and it has one of the best long-term track records in real estate. With a market-beating yield, a double-digit long-term dividend growth rate, a reasonable payout ratio, nearly 15 consecutive years of dividend increases, and the potential that shares are 12% undervalued, dividend growth investors looking to up their exposure to real estate and/or infrastructure should take a close look at this name after its large drawdown. Note from D&I: How safe is AMT's dividend? We ran the stock through Simply Safe Dividends, and as we go to press, its Dividend Safety Score is 78. Dividend Safety Scores range from 0 to 100. A score of 50 is average, 75 or higher is excellent, and 25 or lower is weak. With this in mind, AMT's dividend appears Safe, with an unlikely risk of being cut.  Disclosure: I'm long AMT. 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