Are Red Lines Broken? Nuclear Threat Out Of Russia And Gold As The Doomsday Hedge

seekingalpha11-21 06:25

Russia has changed its nuclear doctrine, which increases the risk of a nuclear conflict.Broadly, the global geopolitical situation is escalating and the probability of a wider conflict is increasing....

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Nuclear Threat Out Of Russia And Gold As The Doomsday Hedge","media":"seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>Russia has changed its nuclear doctrine, which increases the risk of a nuclear conflict.Broadly, the global geopolitical situation is escalating and the probability of a wider conflict is increasing....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739133-are-red-lines-broken-nuclear-threat-out-of-russia-and-gold-as-the-doomsday-hedge\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are Red Lines Broken? 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Nuclear Threat Out Of Russia And Gold As The Doomsday Hedge\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-21 06:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739133-are-red-lines-broken-nuclear-threat-out-of-russia-and-gold-as-the-doomsday-hedge><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Russia has changed its nuclear doctrine, which increases the risk of a nuclear conflict.Broadly, the global geopolitical situation is escalating and the probability of a wider conflict is increasing....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739133-are-red-lines-broken-nuclear-threat-out-of-russia-and-gold-as-the-doomsday-hedge\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4570","symbol_name":"地缘局势概念股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739133-are-red-lines-broken-nuclear-threat-out-of-russia-and-gold-as-the-doomsday-hedge","article_id":"2485004174","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1391261074/image_1391261074.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485004174","pubTimestamp":1732141552,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Russia has changed its nuclear doctrine, which increases the risk of a nuclear conflict.Broadly, the global geopolitical situation is escalating and the probability of a wider conflict is increasing.Over the next two months, until the Trump Administration takes over, Gold is an appropriate hedge.   VladK213/iStock via Getty Images Post-election geopolitical escalation I warned about the post-election geopolitical escalation. However, my primary warning was about the Israel-Iran situation. Specifically, I expected that Israel would take the given opportunity and attack Iran's nuclear and energy infrastructure. The nuclear Iran is the biggest threat. After the recent Israel's strikes, Iran is exposed - given that Israel destroyed some of its defense capabilities. Yet, it appears that Israel believes that Iran does not have the capability to imminently launch a nuclear warhead, and thus, it is waiting for the Trump Administration to take over in January, before making any further action t","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"translate_title":"红线被打破了吗？俄罗斯核威胁和黄金作为世界末日对冲","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GLD":0.9},"content_text":"Russia has changed its nuclear doctrine, which increases the risk of a nuclear conflict.Broadly, the global geopolitical situation is escalating and the probability of a wider conflict is increasing.Over the next two months, until the Trump Administration takes over, Gold is an appropriate hedge.   VladK213/iStock via Getty Images Post-election geopolitical escalation I warned about the post-election geopolitical escalation. However, my primary warning was about the Israel-Iran situation. Specifically, I expected that Israel would take the given opportunity and attack Iran's nuclear and energy infrastructure. The nuclear Iran is the biggest threat. After the recent Israel's strikes, Iran is exposed - given that Israel destroyed some of its defense capabilities. Yet, it appears that Israel believes that Iran does not have the capability to imminently launch a nuclear warhead, and thus, it is waiting for the Trump Administration to take over in January, before making any further action towards Iran. However, the geopolitical situation significantly escalated in the Russia/Ukraine war, to the point where Russia changed the nuclear doctrine, which many view as a direct nuclear threat. Russian nuclear threat So, what happened? First of all, here is the context. The context The post-World-War 2 order created a Cold War between the Soviet Union and the NATO alliance, led by the US. The Soviet Union collapsed, went bankrupt in the late 1980s, and split in several independent countries, one of them is Ukraine. Russia still views all of the former Soviet Union countries as the Russian satellite states. Thus, it does not want NATO to spread to these countries. Ukraine wanted to join NATO, so Russia invaded Ukraine. No country can join NATO unless it controls its borders. So as long as Russia occupies part of Ukraine, Ukraine cannot join NATO. Thus, Russia views the war in Ukraine as the anti-NATO expansion war - to the key former Soviet Union country. The United States and the European Union view the war in Ukraine as the attempt of Russia to regroup the Soviet Union, which threatens the EU directly. The fear is that Russia would not stop with Ukraine. The Biden strategy The Biden Administration, together with the UE, wants to win the war in Ukraine. It is a proxy war for the US and the EU against Russia. Thus, the Biden Administration and the EU have provided Ukraine with weapons needed for Ukraine to defend itself and to free the occupied territory. The ultimate victory would be Ukraine's acceptance into the EU and NATO. The war is now 1000 days old, and it seems like the frontlines have been mostly frozen over time. The NATO strategy has shifted to encourage Ukraine to occupy part of Russia, the Kursk region, at which point Ukraine and Russia could negotiate to simply return each other's land and end the war. The strategy worked to the point where Russia needed help from North Korea to fight the war in the Kursk region. North Korea sent over 10,000 soldiers to Russia. The Trump strategy Trump wants to end the war. The strategy is to freeze conflict as is, given the current frontlines. This would benefit Russia, as it would keep the occupied parts of Ukraine. However, Russia needs to free the Kursk region before January 20, when Trump takes over. Thus, with the help of North Koreans, Russia is aggressively advancing in the Kursk region. The Biden Administration and the EU see the problem, and given that Russia is getting help from North Korea, the US, France, and the UK decided to allow Ukraine to use the long-range missiles provided by them to attack the military targets deep inside the Kursk region of Russia - to stop the Russian advance. The major problem The problem with the Biden strategy is that it's getting directly involved in the war by providing 1) the US-made missiles, 2) the US staff to operate those weapons, and 3) the satellite images to guide those missiles deep inside Russia. Specifically, this operation is designed to help Ukraine retain the occupied part of Russia. The Russian response Russia now views the situation as the NATO-supported attack on Russian sovereignty. Thus, Russia changed the nuclear doctrine in which it states that it can defend itself using nuclear weapons if the non-nuclear country (Ukraine) attacks its' sovereignty aided by the nuclear country (the US, the UK, France). So, that's the Russian nuclear threat. Should we worry? The situation now is similar to the situation in February of 2020 - when there was a \"virus in China\" but nobody thought it would be possible that the entire World would be in lockdown. The same goes now, nobody really thinks Russia would actually use the nuclear weapons. This is probably true; the probability of a nuclear war is still low - but it's the highest it has ever been. If Ukraine fires off these long-range missiles, but it fails to change the war dynamics, and Russia still manages to free the Kursk region before January 20, Russia will not use the tactical weapons. However, if these long-range missiles start making the difference - cause casualties in Russia, as well as damage the Russian military infrastructure, Russia could be forced to use the tactical nuclear missiles. How would NATO respond if Russia uses the tactical nuclear weapons? No response means Russia wins. Thus, NATO might be forced to respond proportionally. So, that's the nuclear war. What happens on January 20th? Trump wants to end the war. But, if the conflict escalates to the point where the US is more directly involved, Trump might be forced to fight the Biden war. Otherwise, he might appear weak - if the withdrawal means the US lost the war. Russia is not going to negotiate as long as the Kursk region is occupied. The bigger picture is who else gets involved in the war. Russia has a formal alliance with North Korea and China, and informal with Iran. North Korea is already directly involved. Iran is already fighting the US interests in the Middle East. Will China open the new front in Taiwan? Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan said in late October that the World War 3 has already started. Gold as the doomsday scenario hedge Even though the probability of a nuclear war is still low, the current geopolitical situation is destabilized, and as Dimon said, we are heading towards a major global conflict. Gold is considered as the doomsday hedge asset. I view gold as a hedge against inflation, negative real interest rates, falling US dollar, but never really as the doomsday hedge asset. My view has been that you don't need that hedge - never viewed it as a possibility, and if it does happen, you'll not need money the day after. Thus, I have been neutral on gold over the recent run, it did not fit my investment thesis. Yet, gold has been rising, and it has to do with the geopolitical situation. Given the recent change in the Russian nuclear doctrine, and a very complex situation, the geopolitical situation is likely to continue to escalate over the next two months. Thus, I recommend Gold as a hedge (and hope it goes down).  The ETF that tracks Gold, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD), is appropriate for most investors, although physical gold is a better hedge.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2485004174"}