Meet the top casino stock picks in Macau 3.0

seekingalpha2024-11-21

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Jefferies has a positive view on the Macau casino sector on the expectation for normalized gross gaming revenue growth in 2025-2626, broadly in line with China's nominal GDP growth. Mass market players are expected to be the key driver of the growth.

The firm assumed coverage of the sector with a Buy rating on Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYY) (OTCPK:SCHYF) (NYSE:LVS), Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF), Wynn Macau (OTCPK:WYNMF) (OTCPK:WYNMY) (WYNN), MGM China (OTCPK:MCHVF) (OTCPK:MCHVY) (MGM) and a Hold rating on SJM Holdings (OTCPK:SJMHF) (OTCPK:SJMHY). The anticipated return to normalcy was called Macau 3.0 by analyst Anne Ling.

"The new 10-year concessions (granted in Nov 2022, and came to effect on 1st Jan 2023) marked a new era of Macau gaming industry with the Macau government’s demand for diversification to non-gaming investment and attracting international visitors. On top of that, operators’ focus are on luring premium mass customers with all rounded services. Enhancing property margin is also a common target for operators."

Ling singled out Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYY) (OTCPK:SCHYF) (LVS) as its top pick in the Macau casino sector, due in part to a hotel capacity increase and efficiency gains. The forecast for Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYY) (OTCPK:SCHYF) (LVS) is for the casino operator to report 5% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2024, 17% growth in 2025, and 12% growth in 2026. Sands China's market share is seen increasing to 26% by 2026 from the 24% level in 2026.

Macau gross gaming revenue rose 6.6% year-over-year in October to 20.8 billion patacas ($2.6 billion) to roughly match the consensus estimate from analysts. The GGR tally was up 20% from the September total and was the highest since the pandemic shutdown in 2020, according to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. Macau casinos saw strong traffic during the Golden Week holiday at the beginning of October, and were also boosted by a series of concerts by Hong Kong and Korean musicians in the final week of October.

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