MW The latest $5 meal? This year's Thanksgiving dinner.
By Zoe Han
Thanksgiving dinner is more affordable than it was last year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation
Forget McDonald's $5 meals - falling turkey prices and heavy promotions could mean the cost of your Thanksgiving meal is around the same price per person.
The average cost of a Thanksgiving meal will inch down to $5.80 per person from over $6 last year, according to the latest survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, an agriculture-industry lobbying group.
For a classic meal featuring a 16-pound turkey that feeds 10 people, the average cost for the full meal costs $58.08 in 2024, the Farm Bureau said. That's 5% cheaper than the 2023 cost of $61.17, which was 4.5% cheaper than the 2022 cost of $64.05.
Despite turkey typically being the main attraction and the most expensive part of a traditional Thanksgiving meal, declining demand has brought down prices, Bernt Nelson, an economist at the Farm Bureau, said in a statement.
The cost of a 12-item meal during Thanksgiving has typically been below $5 per person since 1986, when the Farm Bureau began tracking the data. The two exceptions were in 2022 and 2023, when inflation took a toll on American pocketbooks. Despite the decrease this year, the per-person cost is still higher in 2024 than it was in 2021, at $5.33.
Grocery chains compete over steep Thanksgiving meal deals
Retailers have been eager to drag down the cost of Thanksgiving dinner even more.
Kroger $(KR)$ announced earlier this week that its turkey meal costs no more than $4.85 per person, making it the latest contender in the Thanksgiving meal price competition among retailers. Aldi was among the earliest to tease its Thanksgiving promotions, announcing that its meal costs $4.70 per person. Amazon Fresh $(AMZN)$ and Target $(TGT)$ also announced Thanksgiving dinners priced at $5 or less per person.
Read more: Amazon, Walmart and Aldi compete to offer supercheap Thanksgiving meals - while other retailers wait in the wings
Food in general has become more expensive due to inflation, especially for dining out and takeout. Even for fast-food restaurants, the average price of a meal was $7.63 in 2023, according to Circana data, while a meal at a casual restaurant cost $16.53 per person on average.
Cost is a top concern for the average person hosting Thanksgiving dinner. In a separate Circana survey, about a third of respondents said they expect to pay more for Thanksgiving groceries this year, but said they will purchase the same amount that they did last year.
Some hosts are downsizing their Thanksgiving meals and guest lists this year, according to a recent Deloitte survey. Three in 10 Americans surveyed said they would offer something less fancy, and about the same share said they would leave some of their relatives or friends off the guest list. The average number of guests this year is just over 10 - 10.4, to be exact - and the average total budget for hosting the dinner is $260 in total, according to the survey.
Americans are turning away from turkey
Though inflation has eased, prices for some grocery items haven't decreased. While the overall cost of the average Thanksgiving meal this year will be lower, the Farm Bureau noted, some ingredients - including fresh cranberries and whipping cream - have increased in price since last year.
But the average price of turkey, the main course for many families, will be slightly lower than it was last year. A 16-pound turkey costs about $25.67, or $1.68 per pound, according to the lobbying group. That's 6% cheaper than in 2023, when it was $1.71 per pound.
"The turkey is traditionally the main attraction on the Thanksgiving table and is typically the most expensive part of the meal," Nelson, the Farm Bureau economist, said in a statement.
The reason for the price decrease is that people have been moving away from turkey, and there's plenty of turkeys in cold storage that usually were not from this year's flock, Brian Earnest, CoBank's lead economist on animal protein, told MarketWatch. Bird flu has impacted the American turkey flock, but its effect will not show up much in prices because of low feed prices and a stable supply of turkeys in cold storage, he said.
Demand for turkey has been on a decline, Earnest wrote in a research note. The consumption of wholesale retail turkey during the holiday season last year, from October to December, was the lowest since 1980, he said, and shoppers are increasingly switching to other kinds of centerpiece items, such as beef and pork.
In addition to offering lower prices, retailers usually give heavy discounts on turkey, often at a loss, according to analysts. Sometimes, they even give away free turkeys after shoppers spend more than a certain amount. Retailers hope these giveaways will help attract shoppers to buy items at their stores to offset the loss, Earnest said in his note.
This year, most retailers priced their turkeys much lower than the Farm Bureau's average cost. Amazon Fresh priced its Thanksgiving turkey at $0.49 per pound, and Walmart $(WMT)$ has its at $0.88 per pound. On Kroger's website, a turkey costs $0.49 per pound.
The steep promotions this year are for a reason, analysts said. Many shoppers have traded down and turned away from national brands and big grocers, feeling the pressure of high prices. Thanksgiving this year is an opportunity to win them back, analysts told MarketWatch.
The average price of ingredients for a Thanksgiving meal
Here's a breakdown by the American Farm Bureau Federation of the average price of ingredients for a Thanksgiving meal that serves 10 people this year, compared with their 2023 price levels:
-- 16-pound turkey: $25.67 or $1.68 per pound (down 6.1%)
-- 14 ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $4.08 (up 8.2%)
-- 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.40 (down 2.9%)
-- Half pint of whipping cream: $1.81 (up 4.7%)
-- 1 pound of frozen peas: $1.73 (down 8.1%)
-- 1 dozen dinner rolls: $4.16 (up 8.4%)
-- Miscellaneous ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.75 (down 5.1%)
-- 30-ounce can of pumpkin-pie mix: $4.15 (down 6.5%)
-- 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.21 (down 14.3%)
-- 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $2.93 (down 26.2%)
-- 1-pound veggie tray (carrots and celery): $0.84 (down 6.4%)
-- 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.35 (up 11.8%)
-Zoe Han
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 23, 2024 07:00 ET (12:00 GMT)
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