Goldman’s Rubner sees S&P 500 charging up to 6,200 in year-end rally

seekingalpha03:37

sitox Heightened corporate demand, billions of dollars of inflows into U.S. equities and FOMO are drivers that should propel the S&P 500 (SP500) up to 6,200 by the time 2024 wraps up, according to ...

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Rubner sees a rally in U.S. stocks starting next week through the end of the year. The benchmark (SP500) on Friday afternoon was roughly 3.8% below 6,200. It logged its all-time closing high of 6,001.35 this month.  “We are entering the best seasonal period of the year for U.S. equities. I don't think that many will be eating turkey on Thursday and then shorting the S&P?,” Rubner said in a note Friday.  Bullish factors include investors pushing $105B worth of inflows back into the U.S. stock market in the three weeks after the U.S. elections, one of the largest monthly inflows on record, Rubner said. European and emerging market funds have logged outflows for eight and seven consecutive weeks, respectively. “There appears major FOMO from the retail/private wealth management/high-net worth community to increase U.S. equity exposure into financials, industrials, energy, and transports,” said Rubner, managing director for global markets at Goldman Sachs.  The S&P 500 (SP500) soared to its peak after Donald Trump won re-election as U.S. president early this month, firing up so-called Trump Trades including financial (XLF) and small-cap stocks (RTY), as well as bitcoin (BTC-USD).  At the same time, “retail euphoria is accelerating across equities and crypto, and high gains YTD may increase leverage from this cohort,” he said. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) this week has soared past $99,000, on the doorstep to the highly anticipated price of $100K.  Meanwhile, November-December is the strongest two-month period of the year for corporate demand for U.S. equities. “We got a lot of runway” with a corporate blackout window starting on December 23, he said. Goldman estimated ~95% of S&P 500 (SP500) corporates are in an open window. Authorizations stand at $1.105T YTD, up ~17% compared with 2023 YTD authorizations, Rubner said.  The S&P 500 (SP500) has climbed ~25% this year. “Historically, good years tend to follow more good years for U.S. equities, and January is when capital gets deployed from the largest asset base,” the strategist said. “I placed my order for an SPX 7K hat.”   ETFs that track the S&P 500 (SP500) include (SPY), (VOO), (SDS), and (IVV).","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2485213709"}