By Dan Gallagher
Qualcomm sees a bright future for itself away from smartphones. But getting there is going to take time--a lot more time than some investors have on their horizons.
The chip maker's stock slipped 7% as Wall Street reacted to a diversification plan laid out in an analyst meeting the previous afternoon. Qualcomm, best known for its modem processors for wireless phones, said it plans to be generating about half its revenue from non-handset businesses by the end of the decade.
It's an ambitious target, as handsets account for about three-quarters of the company's business now. And it requires a lot to go right, including strong growth in sales of chips for cars and traction for personal computers using the company's on-device AI technology. The latter would also require a break in the longtime stronghold that x86 chips from Intel and AMD have had on the PC market; Qualcomm's processors use Arm-based designs more common in mobile devices.
Wall Street is mixed. "We are optimistic Qualcomm's expertise in low-power processing will drive diversified growth in AI-infused embedded applications, an attractive setup for the stock," wrote Josh Buchalter of TD Cowen in a note to clients on Wednesday. Tim Arcuri of UBS noted the "impressive set of opportunities" outlined by the company, but said the event "underscored the view that this is a company in transition through the remainder of the decade with growth significantly muted by headwinds in the handset business." About 51% of analysts rate Qualcomm as a buy, according to FactSert.
One big question mark is what happens to the company's business with Apple--and when? Apple is well known to be hard at work on its own modem chip for the iPhone, but the exact timing of that remains uncertain. It's not a small business; analysts estimate sales to Apple totaled $5.6 billion in Qualcomm's last fiscal year--about 17% of the company's total chip revenue in that time, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha.
Qualcomm didn't address the timing of Apple's exit from its business on Tuesday, which leaves some risk to the company's numbers if that happens sooner than later. Analysts are projecting about $4.8 billion in revenue from Apple this fiscal year and more than $3 billion in the next year. Chris Caso of Wolfe Research wrote Wednesday that "we don't think the Apple loss is yet reflected in street numbers." Some calls are especially hard to make.
This analysis comes from the Journal's Heard on the Street team. Subscribe to their free daily afternoon newsletter here.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 20, 2024 15:15 ET (20:15 GMT)
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