By Mackenzie Tatananni
Three blockbusters are slated to earn millions at the box office this month, which would deliver a healthy boost to two of the largest movie theater chains in the U.S.
Wicked, one of the most anticipated films of the year, opens Nov. 22 following early-access screenings at AMC Entertainment Holdings locations across the country. It is estimated to bring in around $100 million, up from the $80 million projected a few weeks ago.
Landing in theaters the same day is Gladiator II, the high-production sequel to the 2000 historical epic flick of the same name. It is expected to pull in around $65 million.
The dual premiere has already drawn comparisons to "Barbenheimer," the simultaneous release of Barbie and Oppenheimer last summer that had both movies facing off at the box office.
All that hype proved advantageous for theaters: AMC stock closed 33% higher on the first trading day after the "Barbenheimer" opening weekend.
Lately, however, the stock hasn't fared as well. AMC has fallen 26% over the past year, and is down 99% from its all-time closing high of $339 in June 2021. The stock was trading at $4.55 on Friday.
By contrast, shares of AMC's largest competitor, Cinemark, have surged. Cinemark stock has skyrocketed 128% so far in 2024, putting it on pace for its best year on record, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
B. Riley analyst Eric Wold says the Wicked and Gladiator double-feature could boost both stocks.
The much-awaited debut of Moana 2 is also on the horizon, with the animated Disney film hitting theaters Nov. 27. It is projected to rake in more than $100 million, offering even more of a helping hand to the industry.
Wold says this variety of genres -- musical, action, and animation -- will create favorable conditions for both AMC and Cinemark.
"We believe strong box office results could help to boost investor optimism into the 2025 and 2026 film slates -- highlighting the opportunity to bring all moviegoer demographics back to theaters with a more diversified and consistent film slate," the analyst wrote in an email to Barron's.
Wold maintains a Neutral rating for AMC and Cinemark, as both stocks "already reflect the potential for a strong box office recovery in 2025."
His firm, meanwhile, rates IMAX stock at Buy. B. Riley raised its price target on the stock to $33 from $30 last week.
"We believe that continued evidence of consumers trading up to premium moviegoing experiences for Gladiator II and Wicked could further bolster the outlook for Buy-rated IMAX into next year," Wold said.
Other names to keep an eye on are Comcast and Paramount. Universal Pictures, a division of Comcast, produced Wicked, while Paramount Pictures will distribute Gladiator II.
Comcast stock slipped 0.5% to $43.30 on Friday, snapping a two-day winning streak, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Paramount stock was rising for the third consecutive day Friday. However, it has slumped 25% over the past 12 months and is on pace for its worst calendar year since 2022, when the stock plummeted 44%.
It remains to be seen just how much opening weekend will help.
Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 22, 2024 12:50 ET (17:50 GMT)
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