Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2024

seekingalpha11-21

US GDP growth in 2025 has been revised to 2.1% from last month’s estimate of 1.9%.World petroleum stocks are expected to fall in 2024Q4 and 2025Q1 and then build for the rest of 2025 based on current ...

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the estimate for World C+C output from September 2024 to December 2024 in the chart below is based on crude oil estimates in the STEO for World minus US C+C output and the ratio of the STEO crude estimates and C+C estimates from the EIA's International Energy Statistics for World minus US C+C output for the most recent 12 months (September 2023 to August 2024).  In my view, the estimate for World C+C annual output in 2025 (83.9 Mb/d) looks optimistic. I expect World C+C will average about 82.5 Mb/d in 2025, about 500 kb/d higher than the 2024 estimate, which appears reasonable.  US crude oil forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are unchanged from last month, but Brent Oil price for 2025 has been revised lower by $2/b from last month's STEO and Henry Hub natural gas prices have also been revised lower in 2024 and 2025 compared to last month. US GDP growth in 2025 has been revised to 2.1% from last month's estimate of 1.9%.   World petroleum stocks are expected to fall in 2024Q4 and 2025Q1 and then build for the rest of 2025 based on current EIA estimates. Brent prices are slightly lower in the last 3 quarters of 2025 compared to the October STEO estimate.  From 2010 to 2019, World petroleum consumption (includes NGL) increased at an average annual rate of 1.5 Mb/d. In 2024, consumption is expected to increase at 1 Mb/d and in 2025 at 1.2 Mb/d, below the recent historical rate (excluding pandemic and recovery period up to 2023).  This chart gives more detail on which parts of the World have been responsible for petroleum consumption increases and the expectations for 2024 and 2025.  US natural gas output grew rapidly in 2022 and 2023, but no annual growth is expected in 2024 and growth in 2025 is expected to be nearly 5 times smaller than in 2022 (21% of the growth rate in 2022). Most of the growth in 2025 is forecast to come from the Permian Basin.  US electricity generation is expected to increase by 3% in 2024 due to a hotter summer than 2023 and by 1% in 2025. From the STEO: We expect natural gas and solar power to be the largest sources of growth in U.S. electricity generation in 2024. Natural gas use for power generation has risen this year as a result of relatively low fuel prices, while solar is powering more generation as U.S. generating capacity grows. We expect U.S. natural gas generation will grow by 3% in 2024. Slower growth in U.S. electricity demand and higher natural gas prices in most regions next year is likely to reduce generation from natural gas, which we expect will fall by 5% between 2024 and 2025.  Higher natural gas prices in 2025 are expected to increase annual wholesale electricity prices in most parts of the US. In the Northwest, more hydro generation than 2024 causes prices to drop a bit from 2024. In Texas, expanding output from solar generation allows prices to drop further from their already low levels, leading to the lowest prices by a $5/MWh compared to the next lowest price region.  NGL output grows more slowly in 2024 and 2025 compared to 2022 and 2023 due to slower growth in natural gas output.  US consumption of liquid fuels is nearly flat in 2024, and in 2025, almost all of the growth in consumption is from increased distillate fuel use (aka diesel), the annual growth rate in liquid fuel consumption in 2025 is under 1%.  The increase in hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) in 2024 accounts for all of the increase in liquid fuel consumption in the US, but in 2025, is only about 10% of the total increase in liquids consumption.  The US continues to be a net importer of crude oil, most of the net exports are HGL.  US consumption of natural gas has been relatively flat in 2023 and is expected to be flat in 2024, despite strong increases in natural gas used in power generation in those 2 years. Higher natural gas prices in 2025 is forecast to decrease natural gas fired power generation and lead to an overall decrease in natural gas consumption (only a tiny decrease of half a percent).  The increased US natural gas output is forecast to lead to higher exports of natural gas, with nearly a 50% increase in exports over the 2021 to 2025 period.  Electricity prices are forecast to increase more slowly in 2024 and 2025 compared to the 2021 to 2023 period.  Electricity generation (right side of chart above) for coal is expected to decrease from 17% in 2023 to 15% in 2024 and 2025 and natural gas power generation is expected to fall from 42% in 2024 to 40% in 2025. Wind power generation increases from 10% in 2023 to 11% in 2024 and 2025 and solar power increases from 4% in 2023 to 5% in 2024 and to 7% in 2025. Nuclear and Hydro power remain at 19% and 6% respectively for the 2023 to 2025 period.  US electricity consumption fell by 55 TWh in 2023 and is expected to increase by 78 TWh (1.9%) in 2024 and 67 TWh (1.6%) in 2025. Note that this is higher than the average annual rate of growth from 2005 to 2023 of about 0.27% per year for US electricity consumption. Perhaps data centers and EVs are expected to lead to higher electricity use.  The share of US GDP spent on energy is expected to continue the decline that started in 2008.  Natural gas production is expected to be flat over the forecast period from Sept 2024 to Dec 2025.  US L48 output excluding GOM is expected to increase more slowly over the forecast period than over the previous 15 months. This is mostly due to a slower increase in Permian Basin output than in the past 15 months.  US natural gas production has been growing more quickly than US natural gas consumption over the 2005 to 2025 period (including forecast for 2024 and 2025 from STEO); the excess since 2013 has been exported. Notice the slope of the production curve becoming flatter since 2023, this may not allow further increases in US exports of natural gas in the future, unless US natural gas consumption starts to decline.  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