North American Morning Briefing: Futures Slip as PMIs Awaited; Bitcoin Near $99,000

Dow Jones11-22 19:13

OPENING CALL

Stock futures, led by tech were lower along with government bond yields, as worse-than-expected eurozone data raised questions about the health of the global economy.

Treasury yields saw pressure after weak flash purchasing managers index data out of the eurozone and in France in particular.

The data had a bigger impact on German bond yields, as the market now prices in the possibility a half percentage point rate cut from the European Central Bank in December.

The eurozone data comes ahead of U.S. flash PMI data and the final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, both for November on Friday.

Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 edged up, paring earlier gains after the PMIs.

In Asia, China tech stocks like Baidu and Alibaba fell, helping pull the Hang Seng Index down nearly 2%. The Shanghai Composite lost more than 3%, while the Nikkei 225 rose slightly after data showed slowing consumer inflation.

Premarket Movers

Elastic rose 29% after it reported fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped analysts' models.

Gap was up 14% after topping third-quarter earnings expectations and raising fiscal-year guidance.

Intuit reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations but shares fell 5.7% after the company issued guidance for the second quarter and fiscal year that was below forecasts.

MicroStrategy was up 0.6% following a fall of 16% on Thursday after short-seller Citron Research said it shorted the stock against a long position in Bitcoin.

NetApp gained 4.3% after beating fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates.

Reddit fell 7.4% after shareholder Advance Magazine Publishers said it was seeking to establish a credit facility using an equity stake in the social media company, Bloomberg reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Third-quarter earnings and revenue at Ross Stores rose from a year earlier and the stock was up 7%.

Snowflake fell 1.4% after its shares closed with a gain of 33% following third-quarter earnings and product revenue that topped Wall Street estimates.

Texas Pacific Land rose 5.2%. The company, which owns significant acreage in the energy-rich Permian Basin, will join the S&P 500, replacing Marathon Oil before the start of trading on Nov. 26.

Watch For:

University of Michigan Final Consumer Survey for November

Today's Headlines/Must Reads:

-Google's Government Foes Are Aiming Too High

-Huawei's Chip Advances Threaten Apple in China

-U.S. to Add Nearly 30 Chinese Companies to Forced-Labor Blacklist

-China's Plan B to Save the Economy: A Crusade Against Busywork

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar hit a 13-month high on safe-haven flows and cautious remarks from a Federal Reserve official about prospects for interest-rate cuts, ING said.

"Markets are clearly taking the escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war more seriously, which is favouring a broader rotation to [safe] haven assets like the dollar."

The Fed's John Williams also likely supported the dollar by saying the U.S. isn't quite there yet on inflation and the jobs market needs to cool further.

Sterling fell against the euro but was little moved versus the dollar after data showed U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell in October.

Consumers were "scared off the high street" ahead of an anticipated tough U.K. government budget on October 30, Ebury said.

A rise in energy prices and other cost of living concerns also weighed on consumer confidence, it said.

Bitcoin hit another record high as it nears the key $100,000 level on bets Donald Trump will deliver more crypto-friendly regulation, and Jefferies said the positive momentum should continue.

Energy:

Oil was on track for weekly gains of more than 5% as escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine have kept energy markets on edge.

Russia fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads at Ukraine for the first time on Thursday, warning against further escalation after Kyiv used long-range Western arms this week.

"The exchange indicates the war has entered a new phase, raising concerns around disruptions to supply," ANZ Research said.

Prices were also supported by a Reuters report that OPEC+ might keep output cuts in place for longer due to weak demand, as well as fresh Chinese measures to boost trade.

Goldman Sachs has forecast Brent crude to average roughly $80 barrels a day this year despite elevated geopolitical uncertainties and a modest supply deficit.

The recent decline to the low-to-mid $70s reflects market confidence in a large surplus next year due to solid growth from the Americas and OPEC+'s planned production increases, Goldman Sachs said.

Next year, Brent is estimated at $76 a barrel on average, but could rise to the mid-$80s in the first half if Iran supply drops by 1 million barrels a day due to stricter sanctions enforcement.

In the medium term, price risks are instead skewed to the downside due to high spare capacity and potentially higher U.S. tariffs hurting demand, Goldman Sachs said.

Metals:

Gold futures rose to their highest since the election sparked a selloff, reflecting safe-haven demand as market concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensify.

While a stronger dollar and reduced interest-rate cut expectations are keeping pressure on gold, geopolitical factors are back in the driving seat for prices for now, according to market watchers.

Industrial metals continue to struggle in the wake of the elections and the rising dollar, while disappointments over the strength of Chinese stimulus measures have also weighed to the downside, BMI said.

Looking ahead, Trump's victory presents a downside risk to base metal prices given rising expectations of a stronger-for-longer dollar, BMI added.

   
 
 
   
 
 

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

 
 

DirecTV to Scrap Merger With Rival Dish

DirecTV has decided to walk away from its proposed merger with rival Dish Network, abandoning a tie-up that the two satellite-TV companies have attempted several times.

DirecTV said that it informed Dish owner EchoStar it plans to scrap the deal at 11:59 p.m. ET Friday. The decision came after a rebuke from bondholders representing about $10.7 billion of debt in Dish and its DBS subsidiary. The broader tie-up depended on the creditors' approval.

   
 
 

A Miami Financier Is Quietly Trying to Buy Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline

An American investor with a history of dealmaking in Russia has asked the U.S. government to allow him to bid on the sabotaged Nord Stream Pipeline 2 if it comes up for auction in a Swiss bankruptcy proceeding.

Stephen P. Lynch spent two decades doing business in Moscow and now wants to buy the natural-gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany. He has argued to U.S. officials and lawmakers that American ownership of the pipeline would provide leverage in any peace negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine and serve U.S. long-term interests.

   
 
 

Bitcoin Surges Toward Milestone. What Gensler's SEC Exit Will Mean for Crypto.

Bitcoin hit yet another record on Friday following Gary Gensler's decision to resign as chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The world's largest token climbed as high as $99,518 in early trading, before retreating slightly. It'd have to rise just 0.5% from that level for its price to pass six figures for the first time ever.

   
 
 

VC Returns Have Lagged Behind Stocks. Are Secondary Markets the Solution?

Venture-capital firms traditionally have been bit players in the secondary markets, but that is changing as some funds look to boost disappointing liquidity, distributions and returns for investors.

It is unclear the extent to which selling startup shares through private sales is a better strategy than waiting for the initial public offering market to open up or other opportunities to cash out, however.

   
 
 

Trump Considers Warsh Serving as Treasury Secretary-and Then Fed Chair

President-elect Donald Trump has floated selecting the financier Kevin Warsh as his Treasury secretary with the understanding that he could later be nominated to lead the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell's term as chair ends in 2026, according to people familiar with the matter.

Trump discussed the potential arrangement with Warsh during a meeting Wednesday at Mar-a-Lago, the president-elect's private club in Florida, some of the people said.

   
 
 

Japan Approves $141 Billion Stimulus to Boost Economy, Offset Living Costs

TOKYO-Japan's cabinet on Friday approved an economic stimulus package worth more than $140 billion, in Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's latest push to tackle inflation and boost growth after his coalition suffered a bruising electoral defeat last month.

The package totalling 21.9 trillion yen, equivalent to $141.71 billion, is aimed at easing rising living costs and promoting business innovation and investment. The government estimates that, when factoring in private-sector spending as a result of the stimulus, the package's impact could be as much as Yen39 trillion.

   
 
 

Trump's Oil and Gas Donors Don't Really Want to 'Drill, Baby, Drill'

Donald Trump wants oil companies to "drill, baby, drill" on the first day of his presidency, but his fossil-fuel benefactors have a different agenda.

Many of the tycoons who backed the Republican's victorious campaign say what they need help with is shoring up demand for their products-not pumping more fossil fuels, which they have little incentive to do.

   
 
 

Kim Jong Un's Message to Trump: We're Not Interested

SEOUL-North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appeared to rebuff the prospect of reviving his nuclear diplomacy with President-elect Donald Trump, according to his first public remarks about disarmament talks since the election.

North Korea's state media reported Friday that the 40-year-old dictator called the U.S. a superpower that operated by force rather than a will to coexist and belittled the value that previous talks had for his cash-strapped regime.

   
 
 

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

November 22, 2024 06:13 ET (11:13 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment