The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0901 ET - U.S. natural gas futures hand back gains after spiking ovenight in volatile trade ahead of next week's December contract expiration. Milder overnight weather-model runs likely contributed to the reversal, although coming weeks are still forecast to be colder than normal, while production is beginning to edge up, curbing some supply risk, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "The trend toward bearish contract rollovers and recently weak spot prices tilt near-term risks downward, but gas prices will likely be a function of weekend production trends and weather forecast shifts." The Nymex front month is down 5.1% at $3.168/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0849 ET - Oil futures are lower but on track for weekly gains, lifted by added risk premium on the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. "With the week winding down and the Russia/Ukraine geopolitical factor fully discounted in our opinion, we will expect some gravitation today at around the $70 WTI level with the market working its way lower in next week's holiday-shortened trade," Ritterbusch says in a note. Market focus is likely to turn to OPEC's December 1 meeting to determine output strategy in 2025. Another month's delay in tapering output cuts would continue to support higher non-OPEC production "with most OPEC members likely growing impatient in relinquishing market share over such a lengthy period of time," the firm adds. WTI and Brent are both down 0.5% at $69.72 and $73.83 a barrel, respectively. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0810 ET - McDonald's says it's introducing a new value menu to U.S. stores in January. The menu will include the $5 meal bundle the burger giant tested this year, app offers and a new buy-one-add-one for a dollar deal. Restaurants will also offer local food and drink deals. The chain told investors in October that it aimed to further sharpen its value offers after the $5 meal bundle helped bring back customers this year. (heather.haddon@wsj.com; @heatherhaddon)
0800 ET - Base metal prices slide, with LME three-month copper down 0.85% at $8,947 a metric ton and LME three month aluminum down 0.9% at $2,610 a ton. Industrial metals have pared recent gains as a stronger U.S. dollar has outweighed any optimism for China stimulus, SP Angel analysts say in a note. The greenback has soared since President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the presidential elections early November. Copper's latest slide follows a sell-off in China, with the yuan's struggle against the dollar limiting Chinese buyers in international markets, SP Angel writes. That said, there are hints of market optimism for fresh stimulus announcements at the country's upcoming December policy meeting, after previous measures fell short of expectations, SP Angel adds.(joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)
0623 ET - Gold futures rise, as safe-haven demand outweighs a stronger U.S. dollar. Futures are up 1.25% at $2,708.80 a troy ounce. The precious metal has returned to growth after nearly three weeks of declines, reversing last week's drop entirely, says FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich. The growing tensions around the Russia-Ukraine war have bought gold firmly back into investor focus, alongside pressure in equity markets. Gold found buyers shortly after falling below the 50-day moving price average. The ability to rise further would be an important price signal, Kuptsikevich says in a note. The extent of gold's downward correction in early November was ultimately shallow, and if gold manages to regain prior highs soon, the long-term target will be in the $3,400 an ounce area, he adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)
0510 ET - Palm-oil prices ended lower amid intense profit-taking, weaker export fundamentals and losses in related vegetable oils, says Sathia Varqa, senior analyst at Palm Oil Analytics. Market sentiment shifted sharply this week after building up large gains since early October, he adds. Lower soybean oil prices further weighed on palm-oil prices today, says David Ng, proprietary trader at Iceberg X. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for February delivery fell MYR132 to MYR4,640 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0451 ET - Goldman Sachs says it forecasts Brent crude to average roughly $80 barrels a day this year despite elevated geopolitical uncertainties and a modest supply deficit. The recent decline to the low-to-mid $70s reflects market confidence in a large surplus next year due to solid growth from the Americas and OPEC+'s planned production increases, according to the U.S. bank. Next year, Brent is estimated at $76 a barrel on average, but could rise to the mid-$80s in the first half if Iran supply drops by 1 million barrels a day due to stricter sanctions enforcement. In the medium term, price risks are instead skewed to the downside due to high spare capacity and potentially higher U.S. tariffs hurting demand, Goldman says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0410 ET - European natural-gas prices continue to hover around this year's highs as the war between Russia and Ukraine escalates, threatening supplies. The U.S. on Thursday sanctioned Gazprombank--the lender tied to Russia's state-controlled gas export giant--to further restrict Moscow's access to the international financial system. "The sanctions increase the risk of Russian natural gas being cut off to the handful of central European nations still receiving supplies via pipelines," ANZ Research analysts say. The move follows Gazprom's halt of supplies to OMV after the Austrian company said it withheld payments for the gas to offset an arbitration award. Meanwhile, colder temperatures have been draining EU gas storage levels faster, further supporting prices. In early European trade, the benchmark Dutch TTF trades 0.7% higher at 48.64 euros a megawatt hours. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0407 ET - Base metal prices slide, with LME three-month copper down 0.3% at $8,996 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.5% at $2,619 a ton. Industrial metals have struggled in the wake of the U.S. elections and the rising dollar, while disappointments over the strength of Chinese stimulus measures have also weighed to the downside, BMI analysts say in a note. Copper sits down 6.4% on month, while aluminum is down 0.6% on month. The greenback had pushed higher on the back of the potential for higher inflation under the Trump presidency alongside lower Federal Reserve interest rate-cut expectations, BMI says. Looking ahead, Trump's victory presents a downside risk to base metal prices given rising expectations of a stronger-for-longer U.S. dollar, a headwind for base metals, BMI adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)
0406 ET - Gold futures rise, reaching their highest point since the U.S. presidential election sparked a selloff. Futures rise 1% to $2,700.90 a troy ounce, surpassing the $2,700 mark for the first time since Trump's victory ignited a dollar rally and suppressed gold demand. Gold's gains reflect safe-haven demand as market concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensify. The yellow metal has risen 5.1% over the week to date. On Thursday, Russia's Vladimir Putin said the country launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine for the first time, and warned the West against further escalation. While a stronger dollar and reduced U.S. interest-rate cut expectations are keeping pressure on gold, geopolitical factors are back in the driving seat for gold prices for now, market watchers say. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)
0342 ET - Oil prices are on track for weekly gains of more than 5% as escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep energy markets on edge. In early European trade, Brent crude and WTI are both up 0.6% at $74.66 and $70.53 a barrel, respectively. Russia fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads at Ukraine for the first time on Thursday, warning against further escalation after Kyiv used long-range Western arms this week. "The exchange indicates the war has entered a new phase, raising concerns around disruptions to supply," ANZ Research analysts say in a note to clients. Prices are also supported by a Reuters report that OPEC+ might keep output cuts in place for longer due to weak demand, as well as fresh Chinese measures to boost trade. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
2137 ET - Palm oil prices are lower in early Asia trade, weighed by soybean oil's weakness overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Palm olein's softness on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also put pressure on palm prices, it says. Palm oil's demand is expected to wane off as India's festival buying period has concluded, it adds. AmInvestment Bank sees support for crude palm oil futures at 4,699 ringgit and resistance at 4,799 ringgit. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for February delivery falls MYR82 to MYR4,690 a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 22, 2024 09:15 ET (14:15 GMT)
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