Portillo's: Units Of The Future Are Coming Out Of The Oven, But I'm Hoping For A Greater Margin Of Safety

seekingalpha11-23

Fast-casual chains like Portillo's are maintaining premium pricing despite fast-food value promotions, impacting traffic but preserving margins.Portillo's lacks a loyalty program and value platform, ...

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Other direct competitors like Popeyes from Restaurant Brands International Inc.  and Taco Bell from Yum!","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"PTLO":"Portillo’s Inc.","BK4209":"餐馆"},"translate_title":"波蒂略：未来的装置即将出炉，但我希望有更大的安全边际","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PTLO":0.9},"content_text":"Fast-casual chains like Portillo's are maintaining premium pricing despite fast-food value promotions, impacting traffic but preserving margins.Portillo's lacks a loyalty program and value platform, leading to a -0.9% decline in comparable sales and a 3.5% drop in traffic in Q3 FY 2024.New 'Units of the Future' reduce construction costs by 27%, boosting ROI and enabling expansion in the Sunbelt with a projected 25% IRR.I maintain a 'Hold' rating on Portillo's with a price target of $11-$12, awaiting better margins of safety and improved comparable sales trends.   Joe Hendrickson  Another Fast-Casual That Will Maintain Its Premium Pricing Fast-casual is all the rage. There's no denying that. This segment's growth trend only intensified after the 'Fast-Food Exodus' in mid-2022, but you probably already know that. It turns out that in the midst of the fast-food ‘value promotions hurricane’ that began in July, some fast-casual chains are feeling the pinch. This is the case with Portillo's Inc. (NASDAQ:PTLO). As inflation has taken hold in fast food restaurants over the past decade, the average check has become increasingly close to that of entry-level fast-casual restaurants (price points in the mid-single digits to low double digits in dollar terms). In fact, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) has seen its menu prices increase by over 100% cumulatively over the past decade! That's about three times the amount of headline inflation over that period. Other direct competitors like Popeyes from Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) and Taco Bell from Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) have increased their prices over the same period by 86% and 81%, respectively. It's escalated to the point where 8 in 10 Americans consider fast food a luxury (FinanceBuzz). With this perceived lower value has come a decline in value scores (as evidenced in YouGov's latest survey) and a decline in traffic. Fast food restaurants initially tried to keep their comparable sales growing by increasing prices more and more. Now, this boosted the average check and ended up offsetting the drop in traffic. Everything changed in Q1 2024 when these increases became unsustainable. It’s safe to say that this movement wasn’t as abrupt as I’m making it out to be, but rather a smooth and sequential one, but January sent a message to QSRs. Something had to be done, and fast. On the other side of town were fast-casuals. They were the only ones who benefited from the “Fast-Food Exodus.” While some guests who were more sensitive to the price increase were trading their favorite QSR for a bakery or C-store, some of these guests were closing ranks and trying out these concepts that, despite being more expensive, offered fresher food, larger portions, and a more enjoyable experience. At the end of the day, they weren’t even that much more expensive. These incremental traffic beneficiaries have seen a sequential increase in traffic since mid-2022, creating tailwinds for exponential comparable sales growth. Examples include Wingstop Inc. (WING), Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG), CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA), Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG), El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO), Portillo's, and many others. The counterattack has arrived. Fast-food restaurants have deepened their value proposition by offering full meals for the price of $5. Typically, these value platforms included a drink, fries, and a burger, but of course, there was also room for craved-style offerings and LTOs. This was the case with McDonald's '$5 Meal Deal', Burger King's 'Your Way Meal', Jack In The Box's 'Munchies Under $4' and much, much more. Now competing with lower price points, there was an influx of guests returning to fast-food restaurants, despite their value scores not increasing after the launch of the value promotions (indicating opportunity purchases, not loyalty per se). Many fast-casuals that compete directly with fast-food restaurants have had to adjust their promotional mix to handle some of this influx. Here, both a quick adaptation, offering an everyday value platform with promotional price points, and a well-designed hook and build strategy through a loyalty program are key. One success story here is Potbelly Corporation (PBPB). The sandwich chain revamped its Perks loyalty program earlier this year. The main change was a top-down shift in the royalty structure, allowing for faster redemptions of options like cookies, shakes, toppings, and even sandwiches. This change encouraged both incrementality and repeat visits, creating a base of occasional guests who came to the restaurant frequently to redeem quick rewards, especially cookies. As a complementary strategy, Potbelly also launched its $7.99 'Everyday Value Meal' value platform in July to complement its 'Pick Your Pair'. Note that those who do not have a loyalty program are missing out on a lot of incrementality, especially when aggregator channels come into play. Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) is an example of this. They joined the aggregator channels in 2019, with the newly revamped Papa Rewards, but with a very poor rewards structure, requiring a lot of Papa Dough to redeem rewards. It got to the point where a quarter of active Papa Rewards users were unable to redeem any rewards. This has led to a preference for 3P channels, creating both a drag on P&L due to a weaker mix and loss of experience control, not to mention a lack of incentive for repeatability. Papa John’s plans to completely revamp Papa Rewards in early FY 2025, but to alleviate the pressure, they have made it easier to earn Papa Dough over the current model. Interestingly, they have already seen improvements in Q3 2024, with positive year-over-year takeout transactions and Halloween 2024 being the strongest day in the brand’s history within the United States. Portillo's, on the other hand, has done neither. The chain does not yet have a rewards program in place and is not planning on launching a value platform. Management has made it clear that they are not a discount chain, and they will remain that way regardless of the macro scenario. Certainly, decisions like these have allowed Portillo's to keep its margins under control, as there was indeed top-line sales growth to offset operating leverage. However, same-store sales have declined due to traffic headwinds. These headwinds could not be overcome simply by raising prices; last year Portillo's applied an 8.5% year-over-year price increase. In FY 2024 they had to settle for only half of that. Now, that is the only way to try to signal daily value without getting into the promotion game, but to do that you need guests to perceive it and keep transactions flowing. That is not what we saw here. It's a similar situation to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) but within LSR. In Q3 FY 2024, Portillo’s saw a -0.9% decline in comparable sales. As I mentioned earlier, this was a headwind for revenue, which was fully offset by new openings year over year. This mix led to revenue growth of 7% year over year in Q3 FY 2023. Breaking down comparable sales, Portillo’s saw its traffic decline by 3.5% year over year. This is not a worrying number, considering that entry-level fast-casuals are going through the same issue. While they are the first to benefit from fast-food inflation, they are the first to lose opportunity purchases. There is indeed a competition for this more price-sensitive guest here. Of course, this is not the case for upscale fast-casuals like Shake Shack, Sweetgreen, and CAVA, which saw their traffic grow by 0.3%, 2%, and 12.9%, respectively. When we look at other entry-level fast-casuals like El Pollo Loco and Potbelly, traffic in Q3 dropped 7.6% and 3.8%, respectively. Now looking at average check growth, we can see a slowdown compared to FY 2023 for two reasons. The first, as I already mentioned, is a more conservative policy on price increases in FY 2024. Last year, management worked with an 8.5% year-over-year price increase, which softened to just over 4% this year. The second factor is a softer mix, as guests are looking for bargains and reducing their orders, even more so when there are not enough levers to do so (remember, Portillo's does not have a value platform with upsell and cross-sell levers, nor a loyalty program, and this ends up weighing on the mix). In Q3, price increases were 4.4% year-over-year and the mix was -1.8% year-over-year, resulting in an average check growth of 2.6%. Now, with this negative mix, we can say that the impacts of the kiosks are not yet helping to increase the average check per guest, although management has said that their implementation has generated higher adoption rates, especially for add-ons such as cheese sauce, chili, fries, and beverages. Portillo's began implementing them in late Q2, and in August, they only had them in two restaurants. They are now system-wide and are being used to handle high numbers of transactions per hour, relieving pressure on the staff at the counter. This is extremely necessary when in many regions you have AUVs that exceed $10 million and peak hours of $5,000 per hour. It is a fair trade, as the lack of practical effects on the mix is offset by more accurate control of labor and an improvement in the overall guest experience. Kiosks and drive-thru lanes were already widely used at QSRs, but with traffic growing at fast-casuals, they are being systematically implemented by high-growth chains. In addition to Portillo’s, Shake Shack is adding kiosks and drive-thru lanes to select locations; El Pollo Loco is expected to roll them out in Q1 2025 after taking a step back and not launching in FY 2024 as expected; and Sweetgreen’s kiosks are a centerpiece of its Infinity Kitchen, with orders ready in 3.5 minutes. Even Subway is utilizing them as one of the centerpieces of its brand-new 'Fresh Forward 2.0' prototype that is set to roll out system-wide in FY 2025. We still have little news about Portillo's loyalty program, but it should launch sometime in FY 2025. Looking ahead, comparable sales are expected to remain under pressure through Q4 2024. To drive traffic going forward, Portillo's will continue to not use promotional platforms, but will instead focus on improving drive-thru efficiency, improving satisfaction metrics, and driving average check per guest growth. In a scenario where pricing remains around 4% and traffic remains in the mid-single digits due to fast-food promotions, comparable sales are expected to remain negative in Q4. However, the pipeline remains strong, and top-line sales will be driven by these openings as Portillo's gets used to its 'Units of the Future.' This could see comparable sales pick up again in FY 2025 as macro pressures dissipate and the brand penetrates the Sunbelt. Before we move on to the next topic, I'd like you to take a look (as usual) at Portillo's comparable sales compared to other fast-casuals:   Comparable sales (Author) Note that while Portillo's is facing tougher comps alongside Potbelly, Pollo Loco has been seeing declining traffic, which they've been offset by their recent high-single-digit price increases. For Portillo's, FY 2025 will offer some easier comparisons, especially toward the end of the year, which will help ease comparable sales. Pipeline Comes With a Surprise: 'Units of the Future' Coming Out in Q4 When I first heard about the 'Units of the Future', I was immediately intrigued by the idea. Now, Portillo's locations generate top-notch AUVs, but their construction costs make expansion risky. Now, average construction costs were $7.6 million, requiring new openings to generate AUVs of more than $7 million to reach Portillo's ROI target. This severely limited its expansion, since AUVs outside of Chicagoland varied widely, but never near the $11 million seen there. With sales reaching maturity in the Chicago markets, Portillo's needed a strategy to reach the Sunbelt. This is the fastest-growing region in the United States, the 'holy grail' of restaurants. But if the first locations in this market were generating AUVs of $6.7 million, how could it increase exposure there and achieve the necessary ROI? The answer was 'Units of the Future'. Firstly, these units keep the AUVs intact while reducing the cost to a range of $5.2 million to $5.5 million. This represents a 27% reduction in construction costs. And yes, the Future Units can handle AUVs worth over $10 million like the ones seen in Chicagoland and are also a prototype that fits into large and mid-sized markets. However, with these construction costs, Portillo's can still achieve its ROI target of AUVs worth at least $5.9 million to $6.3 million. This is also a 10% to 15% reduction in the minimum AUVs needed to justify opening. Currently, the Future Units are able to boost the Sunbelt pipeline, as the $6.7 million AUVs seen there are enough to justify the ROI needed for nearly $1 million in sales. That is, there is a nice buffer to protect Portillo's if comparable sales decline going forward. However, the Midwest remains slightly below its sales target, with $5.7 million AUVs and Portillo's is planning to develop a 2.0 model to cover even smaller markets. So, it's a green light for the Sunbelt, but still a red light for further expansion in the Midwest in FY 2025. Here are some details for you on how ‘Future Units’ can increase ROI and make expansion more attractive. Sure, they’re not as revolutionary as Sweetgreen’s Infinity Kitchens, but they’re enough to accelerate the company’s footprint in the Sunbelt, something previously unimaginable given the company’s IRR below the 20% target:  Assuming an AUV of $6.7 million for the Sunbelt units, construction costs reduced by over 20%, and Portillo's capital structure, the IRR for Portillo's new Sunbelt units is approximately 25% and the payback period is 5 years. This is a difference of 8% and a full year compared to units built there in 2023. Cost-Benefit Index here is 3.04; Looking at the Midwest and projecting $5.7 million AUVs, plus considering the construction costs of the 'Units of the Future', the IRR for this project is approximately 19%. The payback is 6 years and the Benefit-Cost Ratio is 2.59. This is similar to the performance of the 2023 units, but lags behind the 2022 batch; With the new model in Chicagoland and considering the astronomical $11.3 million AUVs, we have an IRR of over 35%, far exceeding the company's target. The Cost-Benefit ratio is 5.13 and the payback is only 3 years. However, we have to consider that Portillo's has already matured in Chicagoland, making it less attractive given the danger of cannibalization of the system there.  This puts Portillo’s in the game, as other fast-casuals such as Shake Shack, Sweetgreen, and El Pollo Loco have already launched their prototypes of lean units, achieving numbers similar to or better than Portillo’s. Shake Shack, for example, reduced its construction costs by 10%, increasing its IRR to 25.7%. Sweetgreen, on the other hand, reduced its payback period from 3 to 2 years by increasing its construction costs by 41% when implementing IKs. Potbelly, on the other hand, reduced its construction costs by 21% and saw its IRR increase from 25% to 30%. Looking ahead to Portillo’s openings in FY 2024, the chain is on track to reach 10 openings for the year, with four openings in Q3 alone. Portillo’s ended the quarter with 89 restaurants, growing at a rate of up to 15% year-over-year. With growth expected for FY 2025, Portillo’s will reach between 100 and 103 locations. During Q2, management said that the new prototypes would not be ready until FY 2025. However, they accelerated that to Q4 2024, building the first two in Texas. Speaking of which, in September, Portillo’s opened its first restaurant in the Houston market in Richmond. According to management, sales are in line with the FY 2022 launch in the Dallas market, specifically in The Colony. Portillo’s currently has 11 restaurants in Texas (counting the two under construction from the new prototype located in Katy and Grapevine). The Houston market becomes more important as we consider that it will be the site of pilot testing of a leaner menu, in line with what we're seeing of core menu simplification elsewhere. In addition to driving sales and reducing low-margin options, Portillo's can focus on menu innovation. This could potentially depress comparable sales if a Taco Bell-like approach is taken, but I don't think that will be the case. For the entry into Houston, learning from the Dallas market was essential. As soon as Portillo's entered the market, sales were very strong, with projected AUVs worth over $10 million. This made operational capacity fragile since alternatives such as drive-thru and kiosks had not yet been implemented. Now Portillo's has moved faster and is building two more units to relieve pressure in the Houston area. This will make the growth curve smoother and make the experience more enjoyable. Valuation Revisited: Is Portillo's a Good Buy Now? First, let us consider the DDM Models. Here I will consider the Modigliani-Miller Hypothesis on Dividend Irrelevance and consider EPS as D1 and D2 when necessary.  Looking first at the SPDDM and assuming the cost of equity as 7.57%, we have as D1 the EPS for the entire fiscal year. This gives us a D1 of $0.31, as does the EPS. As for the exit price, we have the consensus P/E for the sale (34.74) giving us $10.77. Bringing this to present value, we have a PT of $10.30. Considering the range of all EPS forecasts, we have a range of $7.97 to $11.30. An average of all these scenarios gives us a PT of $9.85; Now looking at DPDDM and considering the same assumptions for D1 and cost of equity as in the base case scenario, we have a consensus EPS for FY 2025 of $0.35, as well as D2. The expected P/E is 30.55 and, consequently, the exit price is $10.69. The sum of these cash flows brought to present value gives us a PT of $9.93. Exploring the other possibilities, we have a range of $8.29 to $13.47. The average of these scenarios gives us a PT of approximately $10.81.  Now, using other comparable companies as a parameter, such as Chipotle, Potbelly and El Pollo Loco, we can take a look at the multiples. Remember that I did not use other fast-casuals here, such as CAVA, Sweetgreen, or Shake Shack, as they are trading at very high multiples. Not that Chipotle isn't, but since I consider Portillo's to be in the middle of the road in terms of multiples, I will use these three. Looking first at the P/E and using the average of these three companies as a baseline, we find a multiple of 25. Here, we will work with the scenario that Portillo's presents an EPS in line with the top end/consensus of the EPS forecasts. This gives us a PT that ranges between $8.76 (EPS of $0.35) and $12.01 (EPS of $0.48). This gives us an average PT of $10.38. Note that all three of these metrics give us a similar price, close to $10 based on the top-end assumptions for FY 2025. This means that at best, Portillo's is priced. It will all depend on how it manages to handle its pipeline expansion in FY 2025 and reverse the negative comparable sales trend. Given all this, I reiterate my 'Hold' rating on Portillo's with a revised PT of around $11 or $12.  This is a bit lower than the Wall St. average of $15, but I prefer to remain a bit more cautious here until I see a more decent margin of safety like we saw in July/August. Back then the margin of safety was around 25%, but now we have a margin of safety of just over 10%, which I still consider insufficient to enter here given my buy-and-hold approach. But if you're a bit more adventurous and are happy with a margin of safety of just over 10%, go for it. The outlook is still a bit cloudy for Q4, but we should see comps accelerate through the second half of 2025. Until then, I'll continue to cover Portillo's and see if we have any entry points with a higher margin of safety.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2485682299"}