Nov 25 (Reuters) - After a quiet spell that suited carry trades, those that profit from the direction of currencies could prosper in 2025 when volatility is likely to increase.
Markets have perked up with option vols rising for major currencies which has undermined once popular carry trades and boosted expectations for bigger movement that should encourage speculation.
EUR/USD, which is by far the most heavily traded pairing, has swiftly dropped from a high towards the peak of last year's range, through its low. This has had a big influence on all other pairs, and the likely continuation of a slide that few are prepared for is set to support the greenback broadly.
Traders are still betting that the dollar drops versus pound, Australian dollar and Mexican peso, and aside from a huge bet against Canada's dollar, not much is currently wagered on the greenback rising.
Without the restraint of speculative bets, the dollar, which is deemed safe as the word reserve currency, could do much better if fears of a trade dispute come to fruition.
Friday's rapid EUR/USD drop has given traders a clear warning about the potential speed and extent of the dollar rally. The lack of preparation was revealed by the post-PMI plunge, and while the pair has rallied, there is strong chance of a deeper drop which may include further abrupt falls below big levels.
Parity, which is probably the biggest level for everyone, is close by. Should it give way when few are gambling on the eventuality, the 2022 low could be swiftly revisited, resulting in a bumper pay day for the few who have opted to bet on direction.
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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own, editing by Ed Osmond)
((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))
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