Premiumization Could Be Long-Term Tailwind for China Liquor Stocks -- Market Talk

Dow Jones11-28

0708 GMT - The premiumization trend in China's baijiu sector should be a long-term tailwind to sales and offset expected volume declines, Morningstar analysts say in a research note. China's premium baijiu market is highly concentrated, and the top three players--Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao--account for 95% of market share, they say. However, China's diminishing demographic dividend will likely dampen the liquor's demand outlook, the analysts say, forecasting baijiu demand to fall 22% over the next 10 years. However, as China's GDP per capita continues to rise, the average baijiu price could rise 6.3% annually over the next 10 years, they say. The top 20 leading baijiu players could increase supply by at least 50% over the next decade amid market consolidation and consumers' preference for better-quality baijiu, Morningstar adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 28, 2024 02:08 ET (07:08 GMT)

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