Global crude oil demand is expected to stabilize and grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, driven by recovery in Asia and steady demand from developed economies, ANZ Research said in a Thursday note.
The firm expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to delay production increases to allow the group to review the impact of US trade and foreign policies.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC oil production continues to disappoint, with growth forecasts steadily falling over the course of 2024 due to Brazil's underperformance, outages in the Gulf of Mexico and Nigeria, and reduced expectations for Venezuela's output.
Despite promises by US President-elect Donald Trump to ease regulations and expand access to federal lands, financial constraints are likely to limit the impact on US oil production, the firm said.
Trump's plans to reintroduce "maximum pressure" policies on Iran and Venezuela could further curtail their crude and condensate exports by mid-2025, ANZ Research added.
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