Al Root
Next year is shaping up to be difficult for car companies.
As the U.S. auto industry faces falling demand amid tariff-induced price increases, the Chinese auto industry faces more intense price competition.
Chinese electric-vehicle maker BYD recently sent a letter requesting 10% price reductions by its suppliers, according to Bloomberg. BYD didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
That report came just after Tesla announced new discounts on its Model Y in China, spurring "market concerns over whether the intense price competition would further dent suppliers' margin," wrote Citi analyst Jeff Chung on Tuesday.
All car companies operating in China have been dealing with falling prices for months. Demand isn't the issue. Chinese consumers are on pace to buy about 23 million new cars in 2024, up 10% year over year. All-electric-car sales are likely to hit 6.3 million, up 27% year over year. Plug-in hybrid sales should be about 4.7 million, up almost 100% year over year.
Growth isn't expected to slow. For 2025, Citi's Chung projects almost 24 million new cars sold, including 7.3 million all-electric vehicles and 7.3 million plug-in hybrids.
For car makers' sales and profitability, the problem isn't demand. It's supply. There are too many cars. Chung counts 254 all-electric models for sale in 2024, up from 198 in 2023. In 2025, he sees 293 models on the market. For plug-in hybrids, there are about 156 models for sale, up from 101 in 2023. For 2025, he counts 174 models on the market.
For auto makers, there isn't much to do right now besides looking for cost savings to offset lower prices.
For U.S. investors, don't forget what happens in China doesn't stay in China. It's the largest market for new cars on the planet and American car companies operate there.
Tesla generated roughly 40% of its third-quarter sales volume in China, selling about 182,000 EVs.
General Motors called China "challenging" on its third-quarter earnings conference call in October. GM's international business earned just $50 million in the third quarter, down $300 million year over year.
Ford Motor management said in October the company's Chinese business was profitable too, helped by Ford exporting vehicles out of the country.
At BYD, China's largest maker of electrified vehicles, operating profit margins are expected to be about 6% in 2024, down a little year over year. Wall Street projects a little bit of margin improvement in 2025. It looks as if it will have to get cost savings to make that happen.
BYD stock was up 0.8% in overseas trading Wednesday. Coming into Wednesday, U.S.-listed American depositary receipts were up about 20% year to date, trailing the S&P 500 by about six percentage points.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 27, 2024 09:38 ET (14:38 GMT)
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