CONY: 5 Critical Lessons All Dividend Investors Must Learn From Mega Yielding ETF

seekingalpha11-25

Be cautious of speculative new ETFs, which can be highly risky and charge high fees.Leveraged ETFs like MSTU offer short-term gains but can lead to significant losses due to daily leverage resets and ...

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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCONY: 5 Critical Lessons All Dividend Investors Must Learn From Mega Yielding ETF\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-25 20:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739688-cony-5-critical-lessons-all-dividend-investors-must-learn-from-mega-yielding-etf><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Be cautious of speculative new ETFs, which can be highly risky and charge high fees.Leveraged ETFs like MSTU offer short-term gains but can lead to significant losses due to daily leverage resets and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739688-cony-5-critical-lessons-all-dividend-investors-must-learn-from-mega-yielding-etf\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"CONY","symbol_name":"YIELDMAX COIN OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739688-cony-5-critical-lessons-all-dividend-investors-must-learn-from-mega-yielding-etf","article_id":"2486891083","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1367402313/image_1367402313.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2486891083","pubTimestamp":1732536000,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"MSTU: The Ultimate Case Study In Speculative ETFs The T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF  is the ultimate example of how Wall Street will provide any speculative options if investors are willing to pay the high fees .   Wall Street will let you take on as much risk as you want. Leverage on top of leverage, on top of leverage on top of Bitcoin.  What is MSTR?It's 2X daily leverage on MicroStrategy . What is MicroStrategy?It's effectively a leveraged play on Bitcoin. Here's what I mean. MicroStrategy is theoretically a software company. FactSetLook at MSTR's sales growth. There has been no growth since 2010, and analysts don't expect any through 2029. The company went from $44 million in annual profits in 2010 to losing money, and that's not expected to change anytime soon. YChartsMSTR is trading at 185X sales... 2028 consensus sales. MSTR is up almost 600% i","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"CONY":"YIELDMAX COIN OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF"},"translate_title":"CONY：所有股息投资者必须从Mega Yielding ETF中学到的5个重要教训","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CONY":0.9},"content_text":"Be cautious of speculative new ETFs, which can be highly risky and charge high fees.Leveraged ETFs like MSTU offer short-term gains but can lead to significant losses due to daily leverage resets and beta decay.YieldMax ETFs may offer high yields, but are not sustainable long term. They often result in capital erosion and high tax inefficiency (sometimes over 100% of returns to taxes).CONY yields 155%... on paper, in the short term. However, for investors taking distributions in cash, real returns are -15% CAGR since inception. Yield traps like these will steadily erode your investment.For reliable income, invest in strong companies with growing earnings and cash flows. Dividend aristocrats like MO, ED, and FRT have generated positive inflation-adjusted returns even for investors who took 100% of their dividends in cash and spent them.   LumerB Bottom Line Up Front: Be Very Careful About Specialty Speculative ETFs Several DK members have asked me to review the YieldMax COIN Option Income Strategy ETF (NYSEARCA:CONY) because it appears to yield 155%. YieldMaxI will use this opportunity to create a special report about smart (and low-risk) ETF investing in general. This includes three critical lessons that all dividend investors need to know. It concerns not just ETF investing but also safe income investing in general. Critical Lesson 1: Be Cautious Of Speculative New ETFs YChartsETFs have grown impressively in the last six years, nearly doubling to 3,500, surpassing the number of stocks traded on US exchanges. YChartsThere are many new ETFs because new actively managed strategies, like JEPI and the YieldMax series of ETFs, can charge much higher fees than index funds.  YieldMax charges 1% expense ratios. Alternative ETF strategies (including liquid alternatives) charge 0.8% to 2%.  JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) is a gold-standard, actively managed ETF for many reasons, one of which is that it charges a modest and highly justified 0.35%.  OK, but am I not being slightly alarmist by warning investors to be careful or at least skeptical about speculative new ETFs? MSTU: The Ultimate Case Study In Speculative ETFs The T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) is the ultimate example of how Wall Street will provide any speculative options if investors are willing to pay the high fees (1.05%).   Wall Street will let you take on as much risk as you want. Leverage on top of leverage, on top of leverage on top of Bitcoin.  What is MSTR? It's 2X daily leverage on MicroStrategy (MSTR). What is MicroStrategy? It's effectively a leveraged play on Bitcoin. Here's what I mean. MicroStrategy is theoretically a software company. FactSetLook at MSTR's sales growth. There has been no growth since 2010, and analysts don't expect any through 2029. The company went from $44 million in annual profits in 2010 to losing money, and that's not expected to change anytime soon. YChartsMSTR is trading at 185X sales... 2028 consensus sales. MSTR is up almost 600% in 2024, a nearly 7X increase in less than a year. YChartsWhy is MicroStrategy soaring when it's not making any money and not expected to anytime soon? There has been no sales growth or profit yet, and in 2024, MSTR will be running circles around even mighty NVIDIA (NVDA).  MicroStrategy's \"All In\" Bet On Bitcoin MicroStrategy has been aggressively acquiring Bitcoin since 2020. Recently, the company announced a plan to invest $42 billion into Bitcoin over the next three years, split evenly between debt and equity, with $10 billion earmarked for 2025 alone. This strategy, known as the \"21/21\" plan, aims to increase the company's Bitcoin holdings significantly. In other words, MSTR plans to sell $21 billion worth of new shares (25% dilution) and then sell another $21 billion of convertible bonds.  As long as the stock price goes above the strike price of the bonds, the debt can be repaid in new stock. While not automatic, the entire reason for owning MSTR is the price going up, and the same is true for bond investors.  In other words, MSTR is flying high because the higher the stock price, the more shares, and convertible bonds (to be repaid with more shares later) they can sell. All to raise more money to buy Bitcoin, which helps create a steady bid for Bitcoin. The more Bitcoin increases, the more MSTR increases (even faster). And that allows MSTR to raise even more cash to buy more Bitcoin. Due to its leveraged Bitcoin strategy, MSTR is in a virtuous cycle that could potentially result in its becoming one of the world's most valuable companies. What Could One Day Go Potentially Wrong For MicroStrategy What happens if a company that's losing money has to repay its debt and can't? It goes bankrupt. Which almost always means the share price goes to zero. As long as Bitcoin goes up, MSTR share price rises, and the convertible debt doesn't have to be repaid in cash. Or refinancing existing debt with new convertible debt. Nonconvertible bonds can be repaid with new share issuances. Which only works as long as the share price rises. If Bitcoin's price falls, MSTR's price falls even faster. And if that happens when bond maturities hit, MSTR may be negatively impacted. The company would then sell all those Bitcoins it's been buying (called the \"Federal Reserve of Bitcoin\"). The relentless bid for Bitcoin, where the more it goes up, the more MSTR prints new cash to buy more BTC, would run in reverse. In other words, MSTR is like someone who has been playing blackjack. If they win, they double their money. And as long as they keep winning, they double their money every hand. Eventually, the player will lose, and if they keep letting it ride, they will wind up with nothing. This is the ultra-speculative bet that MSTR investors are making, that they will get out before the company is challenged by its mountain of convertible debt and some of the largest share dilution of any company in history. YChartsAs long as Bitcoin's price only goes up, MSTR's hyper-leveraged Bitcoin strategy may make it the most valuable company in the world. Of course, that won't happen, but it's the bullish case for MSTR. Warning: Leveraged ETFs Are Not Long-Term Leverage Now that you understand how MSTR works and why it's up almost 7X this year, a 7X leveraged play on Bitcoin, you might imagine that leveraging MSTR is a genius idea. Or at least an even more aggressive play on Bitcoin, right? After all, if MSTR is a 7X Bitcoin play, then 2X MSTR is a 14X Bitcoin play! If BTC is up 115% in 2024, then MSTU should be up around 1600%. Right? Wrong. MSTU is designed to provide 2x daily leveraged exposure to MSTR's performance. It does this through options. However, this leverage is reset daily, which means the fund aims to provide twice the daily return of MSTR, not twice the long-term return. Over longer periods, the effects of daily compounding can cause the ETF's performance to deviate significantly from simply doubling MSTR's return over the same period. The fund's prospectus warns: \"The Fund's performance for periods greater than a trading day will result from each day's returns compounded over the period, which is very likely to differ from +/-200% of MSTR's performance.\" Historical Returns Since October 2024 Portfolio Visualizer MSTU is up more than 2X since Bitcoin has been moving almost purely up since its inception. Effectively, MSTU has done 7X better than Bitcoin, which is impressive but not the kind of 14X leverage you'd have expected. That's because the leverage is good for the day only. Beta Decay Will Destroy Leveraged ETFs In A Choppy Market Seeking Alpha, Jay CooperOver time, even a flat market, if it's choppy enough, will lead to losses in daily leveraged ETFs. What's the lesson here? ETFs are being created to harness the manic animal spirits of today's speculators.  $2.3 billion in AUM in less than a month. $23 million in annual fees. The ETF company will make money, but long-term investors probably won't.  Why Stacking Leverage On Top Of Leverage on Top Of Bitcoin Is Wildly Speculative Historical Returns Since Jan 2020 Portfolio Visualizer MicroStrategy has delivered exceptional returns since the Pandemic, but not without an 81% peak monthly decline. YChartsThe peak decline is closer to 90% and had MSTU existed in 2023. It would likely have fallen 95% or more. Options On MSTU: 3X Leverage On Top of 2X Leverage On Top Of MicroStrategy (Up to 7X Bitcoin Leverage): 42x Leverage On Bitcoin Yahoo FinanceIn other words, if you want to gamble with hyper-leverage, on something that has had 70% annual volatility in the last four years, Wall Street is happy to take your money via high fees and let you gamble to your heart's content. 42X effective leverage on a 70% volatility asset.  Critical Lesson 2: Not All Yield ETFs Are Designed For Long-Term Investors OK, so MSTU is the classic example of Wall Street becoming a casino, stacking leverage (2X daily) on top of leverage (MicroStrategy) on top of Bitcoin (itself a speculative asset with no intrinsic value). And you can gamble with options to achieve 42X Bitcoin leverage. For context, that's higher leverage than Bear Sterns had for credit default swaps on subprime mortgages in 2008 before it blew up and required a congressional bailout.  30X leverage that eventually killed the company. OK, sure, but MSTU is a pure return ETF; it's not designed to generate income like YieldMax ETFs are. YieldMaxYieldMax has 32 ETFs designed to maximize short-term monthly income, but let's look at CONY since the company advertises it as a 155% yield. Historical Returns Since September 2023 Portfolio Visualizer CONY has only been around for just over a year, and at that time, BTC was up 3.5X. Coinbase is up 4X, and CONY, thanks to its use of covered calls, has generated 120% returns, all from sky-high monthly income. Portfolio Visualizer The most recent distribution was $2.02 per share, or 151% of the current price of $16, on an annualized basis. However, it's important to remember that this income is highly variable, ranging from $2.80 to $1 in the last few months. Critical Lesson 3: Only Sustainable Yield Is Worth Buying At first glance, those considering CONY might think of it like this. An ultra-yield play on Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin generates no income, this covered call strategy on Coinbase, a proxy for Bitcoin, might seem like an income-focused strategy for this new digital asset. However, it's critical to remember how dividends work. On the Ex-div date, the value of the stock price (CONY in this case) will be adjusted for the distribution. In other words, that $2 November distribution reduced the stock price by $2. What does a 100%-plus dividend yield mean? If those dividends were to be sustained, they would steadily reduce the stock price by over 100% each year. Historical Returns (Not Reinvesting Dividends) Since September 2023 Portfolio Visualizer Portfolio Visualizer CONY has been down 15% since its inception (17%, including inflation) in terms of stock price. What does this mean? If you live off the income rather than buying more shares of CONY with the distributions, you're losing money at a rate of about 15% per year. In the short term, the income generated by option has still resulted in huge gains, but that income is not sustainable. What Sustainable Income Looks Like Returns Since September 2023 (No Dividend Reinvestment) Portfolio Visualizer Contrast CONY with Ultra Sleep Well At Night (Ultra SWAN) dividend aristocrats like Altria (MO) or Enbridge (ENB). Portfolio Visualizer OK, but that's just one year; how about over the long term? How about high-yield aristocrats since 1985? A period of 40 years? Historical Total Returns Since 1985 (Including Dividend Reinvestment) Portfolio Visualizer Here are dividend aristocrats and kings showing the power of income compounding over 40 years. $1,000 Invested In 1985 Becoming 180% to 611% Yield On Cost  Portfolio Visualizer Ok, but here's the key to understanding long-term income investing. The Difference Between A Yield Trap And Great High-Yield Blue-Chips Historical Returns Since 1985 (No Dividend Reinvestment) Portfolio Visualizer If you had invested in Con Ed in 1985 and lived off the dividends (spent them all) rather than reinvesting into more shares, your $1,000 would have been worth $6,273. Portfolio Visualizer Adjusted for inflation, $1,000 invested in Con Ed is worth $2,100 today after you have spent thousands of dollars on dividends. Federal Realty (FRT) is worth almost $3,000 and Altria (MO) is worth almost $6,000. Real businesses with sustainable cash flows funding their dividends allow for long-term growth in the business. For example, Con Ed usually pays out 65% of its earnings as dividends, reinvesting the remaining 35% into growing its business. Altria pays out 80% of earnings and FRT about 85% of AFFO. This allows them to grow their businesses over time by acquiring more assets that generate more income per share, which drives dividend growth and share price gains. What CONY Is Likely To Look Like Long-Term What does an ultra-high-yielding options-based ETF like CONY look like in the long term? 2 Dangerous Yield Traps That Could Kill Your Retirement Consider the Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund (CLM), one of the oldest ultra-yield closed-end funds. As I explain in this deep dive on CLM, it effectively mirrors the S&P but pays out a 15% to 20% yield. That yield comes from the underlying investable assets, called destructive return of capital, or ROC. CLM has spent decades growing its AUM by attracting high-yield investors who don't understand they are being \"paid\" in their own money.  $1.7 billion assets under management. 2% annual fee (mirrors the S&P). $34 million annual fees.  Historical Returns Since 1988 (Dividends Reinvested) Portfolio Visualizer PremiumCLM looks like it's at least generated positive returns, though 7% (9.2% pre-fee) is rather underwhelming. Portfolio Visualizer PremiumCLM has almost 5Xed investor funds since its inception in 1988, adjusted for inflation. Except it hasn't, not really. Historical Returns Since 1988 (No Dividends Reinvested) Portfolio Visualizer PremiumCLM's principle is that the stock price, not including reinvested dividends, has fallen 7% annually for almost 40 years. Inflation-Adjusted Historical Returns Since 1988 (No Dividends Reinvested) Portfolio Visualizer PremiumA good long-term yield investment will preserve your buying power over time, adjusted for inflation, while generating income you can spend, such as in retirement. For example, MO, adjusted for inflation, has grown nearly 3X while generating 7X your original investment worth of dividends since 1988. In contrast, CLM's value would have gone from $1,000 to $31 if you had spent the distributions rather than just accepting new shares. -9.2% CAGR real return on principle. Critical Fact 4: Don't Forget About Taxes! Never forget that total returns always include dividend reinvestment and exclude taxes. In real life, Uncle Sam gets his cut (unless in a tax-sheltered account). YieldMax investors need to be very careful here because, like all options-based covered call ETFs, the distributions from CONY (or any YieldMax ETF) are taxed at ordinary income tax rates. Your top marginal tax rate. YieldMax Are Crazy Tax Inefficient           ETF Pre-Tax Annual Return Since Inception Post-Tax Return Tax Expense Ratio % Of Returns Eaten By Taxes   TSLY 0.57% -21.84% 22.41% 3932%   OARK 1.95% -12.91% 14.86% 762%   GOOY 4.65% -6.24% 10.89% 234%   CONY 56.47% 10.31% 46.16% 82%   AMZY 32.46% 15.62% 16.84% 52%   FBY 49.07% 24.37% 24.70% 50%   NVDY 109.16% 65.02% 44.14% 40%   JEPQ 16.87% 11.82% 5.05% 30%   JEPI 13.37% 9.47% 3.90% 29%   Average 31.62% 10.62% 20.99% 579%   Median 16.87% 10.31% 16.84% 52%   Click to enlarge (Source: Morningstar) JEPI and JEPQ pay around 30% of total returns (almost all income) as taxes. Compare that to CONY, where 82% of returns go to taxes, and for some YieldMax ETFs, like TSLY and OARK (Tesla and ARKK-based), they have lost money after factoring in taxes. Critical Fact #5: Who CONY Is Designed For OK, so I've just shown you why ultra-yield investing is perilous. If the dividends aren't based on sustainable and growing cash flow and earnings, the returns aren't real. I've shown you how CLM, as a 15% to 20% yielding CEF, has lost investors 9.2% per year, adjusted for inflation, if they took their distributions in cash. 10% historical market return - 17% average historical yield = -7% annual return = -9% inflation-adjusted return. Thus far, CONY has generated exceptional returns from tax-inefficient option income and is losing value at -15% adjusted for inflation, assuming you take your distributions in cash, not stock. So, who is this ETF for? Speculative ETFs: Tread Very Carefully Who is MSTU for? This is for short-term traders who want maximum leverage on hyper-volatile growth assets like Bitcoin. Who is YieldMax for? This is for traders looking to scalp short-term high incomes and sell before the underlying price collapses. While unsustainable dividends can't continue forever, they can for a few years or at least months. YieldMax is all about letting those who want to leverage something like Bitcoin generate a high short and unsustainable yield that you can capture in the short term if you get lucky. If you own these ETFs in a tax-free account (like a Roth IRA), you avoid the massive tax-expense ratios that can eat up most or even all of the returns (and then some). Are you looking for a truly life-changing, high-yield ETF strategy? Something like Schwab's U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), but better?  Well, that's what part 2 of this high-yield ETF series (coming in a few days) will show you.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2486891083"}