FACTBOX-Brokerages see 'uncertain' 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

Reuters11-29
FACTBOX-Brokerages see 'uncertain' 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

Updates with Societe Generale forecast for U.S. 10-year yield target, FX forecasts and global GDP; Morgan Stanley's forecast for FX and U.S. 10-year yield; Berenberg's and BNP Paribas' inflation, GDP, U.S. 10-year yield targets and FX forecasts; J.P.Morgan's S&P 500 target

Nov 29 (Reuters) - Uncertainties around U.S. policies may slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs to fuel volatility across global markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in turn, limiting the scope for major central banks to ease monetary policy.

World economies and equity markets have had a robust year, with global growth expected to average 3.1% this year, a Reuters poll published in October showed.

Following are forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025:

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

Brokerage

S&P 500 target

U.S. 10-year yield target

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CNY

UBS Global Research

6400

3.80%

1.04

157.0

7.60

Goldman Sachs

6500

4.25%

1.03(next 12-months)

159(next 12-months)

7.50(next 12-months)

UBS Global Wealth Management

6600

4.00%

1.12

145

7.50

Wells Fargo Investment Institute

6500-6700

4.50%-5.00%

0.98-1.02

158-162

Societe Generale

4.50% (Q4'25)

1.09

146.3

7.28

Deutsche Bank

7000

4.7% (Q4'25)

1.03 (Q4'25)

Nomura

135

6.93

Morgan Stanley

6500

3.55% (Q4'25)

1.10 (Q4'25)

138 (Q4'25)

7.60 (Q4'25)

J.P.Morgan

6500

4.10% (Q3'25)

1.08

148

7.50

BofA Global Research

6666

4.25%

1.10

160

7.40

Wells Fargo

4.00%

BMO Capital Markets

6700

Jefferies

6000

Barclays

6600

Piper Sandler

6600

Berenberg

4.90%

1.08

140

7.20

BNP Paribas

3.65% (Q4'25)

1.15 (Q4'25)

131 (Q4'25)

U.S. Inflation:

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage

Headline CPI

Core PCE

Goldman Sachs

2.5%

2.4%

J.P.Morgan

2.4%

2.3%

Morgan Stanley

2.3%

2.5% (Q4/Q4)

Barclays

2.3%

2.5%

Wells Fargo

2.6%

2.5%

Societe Generale

2.3%

2.5%

Deutsche Bank

2.6%

2.6% (Q4/Q4)

Wells Fargo Investment Institute

3.3%

UBS Global Wealth Management

2.6%

Citigroup

2.1 (Q4'25)

2.3 (Q4'25)

BofA Global Research

2.4%

Berenberg

2.7%

2.6%

BNP Paribas

2.3%

Real GDP Growth:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025

Brokerage

GLOBAL

U.S.

CHINA

EURO AREA

UK

INDIA

UBS Global Research

2.9%

1.9%

4.0%

0.9%

1.5%

6.3% (for FY 26)

Goldman Sachs

2.7%

2.5%

4.5%

0.8%

1.3%

6.3%

Barclays

3.0%

2.1%

4%

0.7%

1.2%

7.2%

Morgan Stanley

3.0%

2.1%

4.0%

1.0%

1.4%

6.5% (FY25/FY26)

J.P.Morgan

2.4%

2.2%

3.9%

0.8%

1.0%

6.0%

UBS Global Wealth Management

2.9%

1.9%

4.0%

0.9%

1.5%

6.3%

Wells Fargo

2.5%

2.0%

4.0%

1.0%

1.6%

5.9%

Societe Generale

3.3%

2.2%

4.7%

1.0%

1.6%

Citigroup

1.1%

1.0%

Nomura

4.0%

6.9%

BofA Global Research

3.3%

2.4%

4.5%

1.1%

Deutsche Bank

3.1%

2.5%

4.8%

0.8%

1.3%

6.5%

Wells Fargo Investment Institute

2.5%

Berenberg

2.7%

2.4%

4.5%

1.0%

1.6%

6.5%

BNP Paribas

2.1%

4.5%

1.5%

1.5%

6.7% (March 2026)

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva)

((Kanchana.Chakravarty@thomsonreuters.com;))

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