Imperial Oil Maintained at Hold at TPH as It Updates its Q4 Results Model; Price Target at C$115.00

MT Newswires Live12-04

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Wednesday maintained its hold rating on the shares of Imperial Oil (IMO.TO, IMO) with a C$115.00 price target as its updated its models for the oil producer and refiner's fourth-quarter results.

"Following our update, we're slightly above Street Q4'24 expectations on cash flow. Our model sees C$3.24 CFPS (prior C$2.98) vs. Street C$3.13, with the delta primarily driven by upstream (price deck refresh and above-consensus production of TPHe 471mboepd vs. Street 459), and downstream more in-line on earnings with TPHe 414mbopd throughput comparing to Stret 407. On Q4'24 capex, we're slightly above expectations at TPHe C$448MM vs. Street C$415MM. Looking ahead to FY'25 at strip, we model C$11.57 CFPS vs. Street C$11.91 and TPHe C$1.79B capex vs. Street C$1.73B; TPHe 8% FY'25 FCF/EV. Delta owes to upstream (TPHe 442mboepd vs. Street 448; TPHe C$5.24B EBITDA vs. Street C$5.67B), with our downstream estimates more in-line across the board (TPHe 409mbopd throughput vs. Street 407; TPHe C$1.33B EBITDA vs. Street C$1.32B). Bigger picture, with recently discussed spending plans setting expectations on capital returns over the short-term, we look to forthcoming updates in December on the 2025 outlook and next year's investor day for operational updates across the portfolio, particularly around Kearl production trajectory and opex," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

Price: 101.90, Change: -0.55, Percent Change: -0.54

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