MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
Stocks indexes in Europe were higher on Thursday following fresh Wall Street records, with investors taking the French government collapse in their stride.
"Although the future for France is uncertain, there is hope that one, a budget can be passed and two, the bond vigilantes may force French politicians to limit their spending plans," XTB said.
Swissquote bank said, "investors will move on with their lives and look elsewhere to the European Central Bank to decide what to do next with their positioning."
Societe Generale said the French crisis has weakened market confidence in the country and the political uncertainty is likely to hamper investment and consumer spending.
The situation has reinforced its call to go long on the DAX and short on the CAC.
Stocks to Watch
TotalEnergies ' recent share dip versus the sector presents an opportunity for long-term investors to build a position ahead of the growth to come, RBC Capital Markets said as it lifted its rating on the stock to outperform from sector perform.
With soft oil prices and refining margins, 2025 could be seen as a lost year in the sector, shifting focus to underlying cash flow, which would be an advantage for Total, it said.
U.S. Markets:
Dow futures stalled and S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged down as Jerome Powell pushed back against hopes of a swift rate-cutting cycle.
The Fed's Musalem also said he sees a greater risk today of easing monetary policy too much, too soon than moving interest rates lower too slowly and not enough.
Stocks to Watch
Crypto prices soared following Trump's nomination of cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins as SEC chair.
Forex:
The euro rose, and the scaling back of European Central Bank rate cut expectations and resilience to the French uncertainty has strengthened support for the currency near $1.05 and should allow a further rebound, Swissquote Bank said.
Christine Lagarde said Wednesday the battle against inflation wasn't over.
Given an uncertain outlook, the most cautious option for the ECB is a 25 basis-point interest-rate cut this month rather than a 50 basis-point reduction, Swissquote Bank said.
ING said the euro's current resilience to the news from France could prove short-lived as the country faces weaker economic growth, ING said.
While some might see it as positive that any fiscal tightening will be delayed, weak business investment means France could only grow by 0.6% next year, it said, and Germany is likely to contract by 0.2% next year.
"We see the European Central Bank cutting [the deposit facility rate] to 1.75% next year [from 3.25% currently]."
This should keep short-dated euro-dollar rate spreads in favor of the dollar in 2025, bringing the euro close to parity versus the dollar.
The dollar fell as investors continued to bet on the Fed delivering a 25 basis-point interest-rate cut at its December meeting after weaker-than-expected U.S. data, Swissquote Bank said.
Bonds:
Metzler said market reaction to the fall of the French government should be muted as it was expected and the widening of the French government bond yield spread over German Bunds has already gone "quite far, especially compared to lower-rated EU countries."
However, increased political uncertainty is already impacting French consumers and business and this is expected to weigh on growth in 2025, it added.
AXA Investment Managers said the likely path of interest rates should produce a decent yield in fixed-income markets.
"Prevailing yield levels in developed bond markets provide the basis for robust income returns, which should remain above inflation."
Valuations are a concern, however, and investor sentiment toward credit will be subject to the uncertain evolution of policy and geopolitical risks, it says, "but on a risk-adjusted return basis, credit is attractive."
Energy:
Oil prices were broadly stable as traders awaited OPEC+'s output policy meeting later and continued to monitor geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Swissquote Bank said OPEC and its allies need to keep voluntary output cuts in place for more than three months to bolster market confidence. But even then, ample supplies and weaker demand will likely keep prices from rising substantially.
Metals:
Gold edged lower as traders maintained a cautious stance ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday for more insights into the Fed's next policy move.
Meanwhile, political turmoil in France and South Korea was supporting safe-haven demand.
Gold Chart
Comex gold futures were poised to resume their uptrend, based on the daily chart, says RHB said.
China Lithium
China's lithium oversupply is likely to persist, Daiwa Capital Markets said, forecasting a 12%-28% increase in lithium supply worldwide over 2025-26.
EMEA HEADLINES
French bond risk premium dips and stocks rise after government falls
French assets were taking the government's fall in their stride early Thursday, though the extra cost Paris must pay to borrow remained close to 12-year peaks.
Prime minister Michel Barnier lost a vote of no confidence in the national Assembly late on Wednesday, the first time a French premier had been forced out by such a mechanism since 1962.
Eurozone Retail Trade Declines as Political Worries Climb
Retail trade in the eurozone fell in October for the first time since June, a sign of jitters among consumers despite accelerating wages and the economy expanding more than expected.
The volume of retail trade declined 0.5% on month in October, reversing the 0.5% rise of September, statistics agency Eurostat said Thursday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a softer 0.3% fall in October.
Airbus to Move Ahead With 2,000 Job Cuts at Struggling Defense and Space Business
Airbus said it would push ahead with plans to cut around 2,000 positions at its embattled defense and space division, targeting mostly management support roles as it seeks to rein in costs.
The European aircraft maker on Thursday said it would cut 2,043 jobs, around 5% of the division's workforce, fewer than the up to 2,500 positions Airbus had initially sought to eliminate two months ago.
Equinor and Shell to Merge U.K. Offshore Oil-And-Gas Businesses
Equinor and Shell plan to merge their U.K. offshore oil-and-gas assets to form a new company focused on the U.K. North Sea.
The two energy majors will create a joint venture they say will be the biggest independent producer in the North Sea to help sustain domestic oil-and-gas production and secure energy supply in the U.K.
Safran Targets Further Growth, Profitability to 2028
Safran anticipates further growth and profitability after unveiling targets for next year and 2028.
On a preliminary basis, the French aerospace-industry supplier said it is targeting recurring operating income next year between 4.7 billion and 4.8 billion euros ($4.94 billion-$5.05 billion), on revenue expected to grow around 10%.
GSK, China's Zhifei Extend Shingles Shot Collaboration to 2034
GSK PLC extended its collaboration with Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products to commercialize its shingles vaccine Shingrix in China until 2034.
The British pharma company said Thursday that it expects China's largest vaccine maker to purchase volumes of Shingrix valued up to 2.3 billion British pounds ($2.92 billion) at current exchange rates from 2024 to 2029. Zhifei's previously contracted minimum Shingrix purchase levels no longer apply, it said.
Vodafone's U.K. Merger With Three Gets Conditional Approval From Antitrust Watchdog
Vodafone Group's deal to merge its U.K. business with rival operator Three has been conditionally approved by the country's antitrust authority, putting an end to investigation that lasted more than a year.
The Competition and Markets Authority's decision marks a key milestone for Vodafone, Chief Executive Margherita Della Valle said in a call. The approval recognizes the important link between investment and better connectivity, and will pave the way for a more reliable infrastructure across the country, she added.
Balfour Beatty on Track to Beat Earnings Expectations, Plans More Buybacks
Balfour Beatty said it is on track to deliver earnings growth ahead of market views this year, and that it plans further share buybacks in 2025.
The U.K builder on Thursday said pretax profit for 2024 is expected to be ahead of the prior year's 205 million pounds ($260.4 million) and slightly ahead of market expectations, driven by support services. Analysts had forecast pretax profit for the year at 209 million pounds, according to a company-compiled consensus.
Frasers Group Cuts View Amid Weak Consumer Confidence
Frasers Group lowered its expectations for its fiscal year, citing recent tough business conditions and weak consumer confidence.
For the year ending April, the U.K. sports-fashion retailer said it now anticipates adjusted pretax profit between 550 million and 600 million pounds ($698.5 million- $762 million). The group had previously forecast adjusted pretax profit in a range of 575 million and 625 million pounds.
GLOBAL NEWS
German Factory Orders Drop on Car Industry Struggles
German manufacturing orders fell in October on lower automotive orders, continuing the trend of weak signals for the country's troubled industrial sector.
Factory orders slipped 1.5% on month in October, according to data published Thursday by Germany's statistics agency Destatis. This was slightly less weak than economists' expectations for a 2.0% decline, according to a Wall Street Journal poll.
Ukraine Opens Talks With Trump Team on Halting War With Russia
WASHINGTON-Ukrainian officials are holding high-level talks with the incoming Trump administration, seeking to narrow wide differences on achieving a settlement of Kyiv's war with Russia even before President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
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December 05, 2024 05:25 ET (10:25 GMT)
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