Top industrial CEOs warn Trump's tariff and budget plans could slow growth, increase consumer prices

Yahoo Finance12-07

President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda is generally good for business, top executives and analysts told me at the Goldman Sachs Industrial and Materials conference this week. “It’s very bullish,...

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But as strategists and economists have warned over the last few weeks, there are a few potential overhangs or challenges from his proposed policies.For the industrials sector, two risks loom large: tit-for-tat tariffs resulting in inflationary pressures and proposed budget cuts.HEICO’s Mendelson told me tariffs are something the company “has its eye on,” and it plans to “pass any price increases along to its customers.”On the spending side, Elon Musk’s promise to s","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"yahoo.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4597":"股息贵族","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","SWK":"美国史丹利公司","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","ITA":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Aerospace","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","HEI":"海科航空","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc"},"translate_title":"顶级工业首席执行官警告特朗普的关税和预算计划可能会减缓增长并提高消费者价格","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"HEI":1,"ITA":1,"SWK":0.9},"content_text":"President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda is generally good for business, top executives and analysts told me at the Goldman Sachs Industrial and Materials conference this week.\n“It’s very bullish,” HEICO (HEI) co-president Eric Mendelson told me. “The Trump administration would be very positive for aerospace and defense and the vast majority of the CEOs and the executives with whom I speak feel 100% the same way.”\nTrump’s economic policies include plans to extend tax cuts, scale back regulation, and promote domestic industries. But as strategists and economists have warned over the last few weeks, there are a few potential overhangs or challenges from his proposed policies. \nFor the industrials sector, two risks loom large: tit-for-tat tariffs resulting in inflationary pressures and proposed budget cuts.\nHEICO’s Mendelson told me tariffs are something the company “has its eye on,” and it plans to “pass any price increases along to its customers.”\nCompanies with greater exposure to China, including Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), are adjusting their global supply chain — a strategy that’s been underway for years. Roughly a quarter of the company's product is from China, down from approximately 40% about a decade ago.\n“We're going to have to continue reducing our US market exposure to the China market … and this administration might accelerate the pace,” Stanley Black & Decker CFO Patrick Hallinan said at the Goldman conference. “We will accelerate it if we see new tariffs coming into the market.\"\nThe potential for higher prices as a result of tariffs has been echoed by others on Wall Street. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income chief investment officer Sonal Desai told me shortly after the election that a trade war and additional government spending could potentially lead to “greater inflation and wider fiscal deficits.”\nRecently, the president-elect wrote in a post on Truth Social that he plans to impose a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as “an additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs” on goods from China “as one of my many first Executive Orders.” \nTrump has also threatened to impose a 100% tariff on BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — if they attempt to undermine the US dollar.\nHis more aggressive approach on trade is a risk to economic growth and could be an “upside risk” to current inflation forecasts, Deutsche Bank chief economist Matthew Luzzetti warned on Yahoo Finance’s Morning Brief.\n“It will lift inflation … it will tend to weaken growth and weaken sentiment, and therefore also damage the labor market to a certain extent,” Luzzetti said.\nLuzzetti and his team estimate tariffs on Canada and Mexico would likely lift core PCE inflation above 3% in 2025, with more marginal effects beyond.\nOn the spending side, Elon Musk’s promise to slash spending costs as head of a newly created Department of Government Efficiency, or “DOGE,” could pose challenges for defense companies as defense budgets become potential targets.\nThe Tesla (TSLA) CEO, along with DOGE co-chair Vivek Ramaswamy, met with Republican leaders on Thursday on Capitol Hill to discuss plans. Musk has set an ambitious goal to eliminate $2 trillion from the federal budget; the government spent a total of $6.8 trillion in fiscal 2024.\n“Many parts of the new incoming administration are talking about ways to get the government more efficient, whether it’s DOGE or elsewhere, and that could be a top-line headwind to companies in the defense space,” warned Goldman Sachs’ Noah Poponak, who covers the aerospace and defense sector.\n“Conditions in that market are going to be a little bit more challenging going forward,” Poponak added.\nDefense stocks, which initially spiked following Trump’s election victory alongside the broader market, have largely remained range-bound in recent weeks due to growing uncertainty. The iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) has gained 5.6% over the past month.\nSeana Smith is an anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Smith on Twitter @SeanaNSmith. Tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, or anything else? Email seanasmith@yahooinc.com.\nClick here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices\nRead the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2489562492"}