Walmart Stock, Costco Rally As Consumers Say One Thing, Spend Another

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Even as the eruption of artificial intelligence and data center computing trends drives a historic market rally, the top U.S. grocer Walmart (WMT) and club membership leader Costco (COST) have outrun ...

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GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investors.com/news/walmart-stock-ecommerce-online-retail/><strong>Blockhead</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Even as the eruption of artificial intelligence and data center computing trends drives a historic market rally, the top U.S. grocer Walmart (WMT) and club membership leader Costco (COST) have outrun ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/news/walmart-stock-ecommerce-online-retail/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1629891620.HKD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) 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ACC","MSFT":"微软"},"translate_title":"沃尔玛股价和好市多上涨，因为消费者说一套，花另一套","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":1,"MSFT":1,"NVDA":1,"KR":1,"FIVE":1,"ETSY":1,"DLTR":1,"COST":1,"TGT":1,"BBY":1,"DG":1,"AMZN":1,"AAPL":1,"NVD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6},"content_text":"Even as the eruption of artificial intelligence and data center computing trends drives a historic market rally, the top U.S. grocer Walmart (WMT) and club membership leader Costco (COST) have outrun many of the top technology names.\nThe 62-year old Walmart, the king of retail superstores, has seen its shares roar almost 80% so far this year. On the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it has led all but Nvidia's (NVDA) 192% gain. Walmart stock made new highs each day over the past week amid robust industrywide holiday e-commerce sales.\nAmazon (AMZN), the great retail disrupter and another Dow Jones name, holds a year-to-date gain of 44%.\nThe 41-year old Costco Wholesale is in the midst of a modest digital reinvention. It has hashed out a 49% gain, edging past Amazon and easily outpacing AI innovators Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL).\n\n\n\n↑\nX\n\n\n\n\nTrump Wants To Increase Tariffs On Trading Partners. What That Plan Means For Investors.\n\n\nSee All Videos\n\n\n\n\nNOW PLAYING\nTrump Wants To Increase Tariffs On Trading Partners. What That Plan Means For Investors.\n\n\n\n\n\"We really like the discounters, the value retailers,\" said Joe Feldman, a retail analyst at Telsey Advisory Group. \"As you just saw with the election, the No. 1 issue was the economy. And despite the fact that economic activity is actually quite healthy in the U.S., the majority of Americans think it's pretty lousy, and they are really struggling to make ends meet and get food on the table.\"\nThe advisory has a buy rating on Walmart stock and Costco, as well as on Amazon and Target (TGT). Feldman was among 13 analysts who raised their price targets on WMT stock to 100 or above after the latest Nov. 19 earnings, according to FactSet. That suggests at least a modest upside for the Dow retailer's shares after their big rally.\nE-Commerce Embrace\nWalmart is famous for low prices and large stores. Costco is known for great value and high-volume warehouse shopping. But the traditional brick-and-mortar retail giants transformed themselves over the past several years, particularly Walmart. Both companies embraced technology to facilitate commerce and to make operations more efficient.\nWalmart's profitability surprised to the upside in the last 10 quarters. Costco has racked up five straight surprises.\nIn their most recent reports, Walmart and Costco increased e-commerce sales a respective 27% and 19% vs. total sales growth in the low-to-mid-single digits. The rates outpace the overall U.S. e-commerce market as well as Amazon's e-commerce sales. Those are growing at around 9% each.\nTarget, mired in a three-year slump, grew e-commerce sales 11% in its latest quarter, with total sales up just 1%.\nWalmart went on the offensive by using e-commerce sales to power newer and higher-margin businesses. Those include digital advertising, fulfillment services, consumer data, membership income and marketplace sales.\n\"They are kind of a near mirror image to Amazon\" in terms of that flywheel effect, Feldman told Investor's Business Daily. Growth powered by online sales, including groceries, is making the Amazon comparisons more relevant.\nDespite the difference in scale, Amazon and Walmart go head-to-head as the nation's two largest e-commerce retailers. They are also the two biggest U.S. online grocery retailers.\nWalmart was just a middling player for most of the 24 years it has been in the e-commerce space. It ramped up efforts with the $3.3 billion Jet.com acquisition in 2016. It then received a serious boost when pandemic lockdowns led consumers to go online to buy food and essentials.\nBlack Friday Shoppers Skip Stores For Mobile Devices\nThat shift was apparent in the past weekend's Black Friday sales. Led by Amazon and Walmart, 2024 Black Friday e-commerce sales soared almost 15% driven by steep discounts, according to the latest annual Mastercard SpendingPulse report, far outpacing eMarketer's forecast for a 5.5% increase. By comparison, in-store sales nudged up 0.7%.\nTrends driving the holiday e-commerce boom included mobile shopping, buy now pay later and genAI chatbots, eMarketer said. Moreover, online carts were twice the size of in-person carts, according to payment firm Block (SQ). Amazon reported record Black Friday week to Cyber Monday (Nov. 21-Dec. 2) sales.\nFacteus reported strong holiday sales performances for both Amazon and Walmart, while Target and Best Buy (BBY) were flat. The retail data provider highlighted \"remarkable growth\" for cheap Chinese online retail upstarts including PDD Holdings' (PDD) Temu, as well as privately owned Shein and TikTok Shop.\nWalmart Stock Rises As Retailer Mirrors Amazon\nFor Walmart, e-commerce growth is actually down from more robust pandemic levels. And Amazon still dominates e-commerce sales by a mile.\nBut Bentonville, Ark.-based Walmart is on track to generate $100 billion in 2024 e-commerce sales, according to eMarketer. That would be less than a fifth of its total anticipated annual sales and well behind Amazon's projected $487 billion. But it's a steady advance from $83 billion in 2023 and $68 billion in 2022.\nE-commerce profits remain elusive. But Walmart, the world's largest retailer, is seeing e-commerce losses narrow as years of investments pay off.\nIn Q3, more than 30% of online orders came from customers who chose to pay a convenience fee to receive their delivery within three hours. Meanwhile the company slashed delivery cost per order by 40%.\nManagement now expects the U.S. e-commerce business to become profitable in a year or two. Many factors have helped, including the use of physical stores to fulfill online orders, not to mention Walmart's 37% share of total U.S. online grocery sales.\nIn the latest October-end quarter, Walmart's global e-commerce sales surged 27%, speeding up from 21% in the prior two quarters. Advertising sales climbed 28%. Membership income advanced 22%. In the U.S. market, store-fulfilled deliveries jumped 50%. Marketplace, allowing third-party sellers to list their products on Walmart's website, surged 42%.\n\"The rapid growth from these newer businesses is helping us strengthen our business model,\" Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on a Nov. 19 quarterly earnings call.\nFor consumers, options like store pickup and curbside pickup of online orders have blurred the lines between e-commerce and traditional retail. Retailers call this an omnichannel strategy.\n\"Omni is our life, which we love,\" McMillon told analysts on the Nov. 19 call. \"We think it's an advantaged position.\"\nFor example, Walmart Plus members get free unlimited shipping for $98 per year, a lower cost than Amazon Prime. They also get benefits that Amazon Prime can't match, such as free home delivery after shopping at Walmart's more than 5,000 U.S. stores.\nThose stores, located within 10 miles of 90% of the American population, are rapidly evolving. They have doubled up since late 2019 as fulfillment centers for online orders, with more than half their volumes now automated.\n\"We have a great and huge store and club business around the world that is profitable,\" McMillon said in August. Further, he added, \"We make money in food. We make money in consumables. We make money in general merchandise.\" The Walmart chief vowed: \"And we'll eventually make money in e-commerce.\"\nMcMillon reiterated in November that Walmart is not in a \"race\" for e-commerce profitability. Telsey Advisory's Feldman took a similarly measured view.\n\"People like the market share gains Walmart is making online and are excited about the opportunity,\" he said. \"When they do turn to profitability, that should help a lot.\"\nRetail Stocks Brace For Trump, Holidays\nWalmart stock has continued to rally after an easy third-quarter earnings beat on Nov. 19. Costco shares also continued higher, heading into the company's Dec. 12 report.\nThe gains are notable amid what has overall been a tepid holiday shopping season. In addition, days after the Nov. 5 Election Day, Neil Saunders, managing director at retail consultancy GlobalData, told IBD that Trump's presidential victory brings \"a mixed bag\" for retail stocks.\nThe main positives? Tax cuts that will boost consumer spending, lower energy prices and less regulation. The biggest downside? Proposed tariffs on imported goods, which would again force retailers to either absorb a massive hit on profits or raise prices, when shoppers have had quite enough.\n\"The uncertainty here is how much of Trump's views are threats as part of a negotiating position, and how much are settled policy views,\" Saunders said in a Nov. 11 email. \"No one completely knows the answer to that.\"\nThe retail industry also stared at the specter of fresh supply disruptions. Some reports suggested retailers and manufacturers were already scrambling to bring forward shipment orders. Other reports said they are waiting for the Trump tariffs picture to become clearer.\n\"Most are undertaking risk assessments and looking at potential mitigations, but few have taken decisive action to date,\" he said.\nTariffs could cause all kinds of disruptions — pushing up shipping rates, increasing warehousing costs, and tying up more capital, Saunders said. Target, Best Buy (BBY), Five Below (FIVE), Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) got clobbered the day after Trump's win on the tariff threat.\nBut Walmart and Costco, which can use their size to navigate cost pressures, held up relatively well. Kroger (KR), the No. 2 grocer behind Walmart and ahead of Costco, spiked.\nAnother uncertainty from Trump's election is the impact on Temu and Shein. Those Chinese fast-fashion online retailers are proving a formidable challenge to established Western counterparts, from Amazon and Walmart to Etsy (ETSY).\nWalmart Stock, Costco: Inflation Winners\nAfter Walmart and Costco's outperformance this year, investors want to know: How will a Trump White House impact the Walmart and Costco stock rallies? Bottom line: President-elect Trump's proposed tax cuts could reinvigorate consumer spending. And if the pledged tariffs ignite a tit-for-tat tariff war, these retail giants' China or foreign exposure is not significant enough to hurt them, analysts say.\nTelsey analyst Feldman identified another insulating factor that often flies under the radar. Walmart and Costco generate as much as 60% of their revenue from groceries produced in the U.S. or sourced closer to home.\n\"The companies like Walmart and Costco that sell a lot of food have less exposure to tariffs than, say, a Target, which gets two-thirds of its business from discretionary goods\" like apparel, electronics and toys, Feldman said.\nMeanwhile, Christmas imports data, seasonal hiring trends and holiday spending forecasts all point to a subdued close to 2024 for the retail industry.\nIn November, Walmart gave an upbeat holiday season outlook. But Target and some other retailers went the other way.\nThe nature of the businesses explains the difference. \"Walmart is a grocery store that sells other stuff,\" said analyst Zak Stambor of digital market research firm eMarketer. \"Target is a store that sells other stuff and also sells groceries.\"\nThat focus on staples made Walmart stock and Costco inflation winners. But there's also a bit more to it.\n\"Walmart has made clear inroads with a more affluent customer base,\" Stambor said.\nAs shoppers hunt for value, there are signs that some are falling in love with Walmart at the expense of Target. Walmart has copied that rival's playbook to expand into higher-end private-label brands and affordable duplicates of premium products.\nWalmart's McMillon said on the Nov. 15 earning call that households earning more than $100,000 made up 75% of the company's Q3 market share gains.\n\"In the U.S., in-store volumes grew, curbside pickup grew faster, and delivery sales grew even faster than that,\" McMillon said. \"Becoming more convenient for our customers and members is helping drive our growth.\"\nWalmart And Costco Crowding Target\nStambor said much of that share was grabbed from Target.\n\"Walmart says consumers are buying groceries but they are also buying other stuff — the discretionary, nonessential spend that is the boost to the top line numbers, whereas Target sees some softness in discretionary spending,\" he explained. Target may be losing some share to Costco as well, he added.\nOne clue comes from the fact that Target's latest quarterly e-commerce sales grew at about half the rate of Costco's. Costco reports robust growth in nonfood sales. Gold jewelry, gift cards, toys and seasonal items, home furnishings, tires and housewares all rose by double digits in its last quarter, leading the way in comparable sales, the company said.\n\"Our buyers have done a fantastic job finding new and exciting items at great values,\" Costco CFO Gary Millerchip said on a Q4 earnings call.\nMembership income grew 6.5% in Costco's latest quarter. It jumped 16.5% for Walmart. By comparison, Target is just getting started. It entered the paid membership game in March with a new program called Circle 360.\nThough stung by inflation, Target has also had by its own fumbles. It leaned into value to fight the sales malaise by slashing prices, for example. That put it on turf well trod by Walmart and, to a lesser extent, Costco.\n\"Target has been squeezed by that and left without a place to play,\" Stambor said.\nThere are signs that the retail rally may be broadening. The end of election uncertainty, the prospect of more Federal Reserve rate cuts and improving consumer sentiment have helped fuel stocks. Costco and Walmart stock have both surged to record highs in November.\n\"A lot of people anticipate discretionary sales being better next year, so you've seen those types of companies already have a move,\" said Feldman.\nBefore an earnings miss sent Target stock to a one-year low on Nov. 20, shares had come well off August lows and were in the black for the year.\nHe added: \"People have anticipated mortgage rates coming down, so they've been buying Home Depot and Lowe's.\" Both of those stocks are now up just over 20% year to date.\nSqueezing Out The Best Possible Price\nInvestors are also watching efforts by Walmart and Costco to expand beyond brick-and-mortar superstores.\nBut after the big run for Walmart stock, the company must continue to grow its e-commerce sales in order to justify rich valuations, Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly says.\nEMarketer retail analyst Stambor said his firm expects Walmart's e-commerce growth to slow to a pace of 15% to 16% gains over the next two years. That should help Walmart's earnings to keep growing 11%-12% annually over this period, in line with the current year and roughly double from 5.7% last year.\nWith Walmart's e-commerce business approaching profitability sooner than many expected, the company could close the gap with Amazon in key areas such as global digital ad revenue. And though Walmart may never catch up with Amazon in e-commerce, it will keep that larger online rival wary, the analysts who spoke to IBD agreed.\n\"Walmart is really the only retailer with the size, the scale, the competitive spirit\" to take on Amazon head to head, said Charles Sizemore of Sizemore Capital Management, a Walmart stock investor who also owns Amazon, Costco and Target in client portfolios.\nSizemore spoke to IBD on Nov. 13, the day CPI data showed an uptick in inflation for the first time since March. He noted the numbers suggest this thorny issue for investors will be sticking around to see whether the new Trump administration brings any real relief.\n\"As long as you have this inflationary pressure that is not going away,\" Sizemore said. \"It's broadly good for Walmart, for Costco, basically for retailers that are good at squeezing out the best possible price.\"\nPlease follow Aparna Narayanan on X @IBD_Aparna for more coverage.\nYOU MAY ALSO LIKE:\nBest Growth Stocks To Buy And Watch: See Updates To IBD Stock Lists\nLooking For The Next Big Stock Market Winners? Start With These 3 Steps\nJoin IBD Live And Learn Top Chart Reading And Trading Techniques From Pros\nLearn How To Time The Market With IBD's ETF Market Strategy\nFind The Best Long-Term Investments With IBD Long-Term Leaders","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2489887467"}