Dec 11 (Reuters) - Next year may see a flight to the safety of the dollar with demand for the global reserve currency fuelled by risk aversion stemming from a trade dispute between U.S. and China.
Should a spat become an all out trade war, the greenback - the go-to asset in any crisis - could rise significantly, but even a war of words may be suffice to boost the already rising U.S. currency.
The greenback is approaching the peak of a bull trend that has unfolded since 2011 and is already supported by positive technical picture and one of the highest interest rates for a major traded currency. Despite the backing of both technicals and fundamentals, far fewer traders own dollars now then when it peaked in 2022,
A further rise in the value of the trade-weighted dollar of around 1 percent would be suffice to take it above 2022's peak, with traders holding $22 billion of bets on that outcome compared with $36 billion earlier this year.
Almost 40 billion was staked on the dollar rising in 2022 and over $51 billion in 2015, which means there is ample room for the current bullish wager to grow. Given the backdrop, 2015's record wager may be eclipsed.
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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))
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