By Paul R. La Monica
The S&P 500 is near an all-time high, but that isn't stopping Wall Street strategists from predicting even headier gains next year for the stock market.
Oppenheimer Asset Management's John Stoltzfus is the latest to put a gaudy price target on the blue chip index. He boosted his forecast for 2025 to 7100 on Monday -- about 17% higher than current levels.
Even though the S&P 500 would be valued at nearly 26 times his 2025 earnings projections at 7100, Stoltzfus argued in a report the multiple could be justified because "companies in all eleven sectors could benefit from greater efficiencies via artificial intelligence to further serve the needs of business and customers."
In other words, companies such as chip giant Nvidia and other tech firms won't be the only winners thanks to AI. Stoltzfus referred to the rise of AI as "a watershed point on the historic timeline of technology and economic progress" and said it could be comparable to the automobile's contribution to the economy from the 1920s.
He acknowledged skeptics would point out that stocks already have enjoyed a big run-up. Concerns still remain about inflation as well. But Stoltzfus believes the recent broadening out of the rally -- with value-oriented cyclical and defensive sectors as well as small and mid-cap stocks -- is an encouraging sign.
"The current bull market likely has legs strong enough to climb the proverbial 'wall of worry' into and through 2025," wrote Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist.
Stoltzfus might be the most optimistic of Wall Street strategists, but he is by no means a lonely raging bull. His new price target is just slightly higher than the forecast put out by Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha for the S&P 500 to hit 7000.
Some on Wall Street have cited the return of "animal spirits" in the wake of Donald Trump's presidential victory and the Republican sweep in Congress. Investors are hopeful corporate tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, and deregulatory efforts will offset any inflation concerns that could arise from higher tariffs or a trade war. UBS has even suggested the rest of the decade could be a new Roaring '20s.
Still, investors should probably be cautiously optimistic as opposed to overly giddy. Drew Matus, chief market strategist with MetLife Investment Management, told Barron's he is a little concerned both valuations and earnings expectations are too high. But he is willing to live with those risks.
"Yes, valuations are high but what else are you going to do? We're not seeing a consistent pattern that tells you things are in bad shape," he said. "Until there is evidence or a rationale for sustained weakness, it's hard to pass up opportunities."
The question then is just how much longer this bull market could last -- and what happens when it is over? Emily Roland and Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategists at John Hancock Investment Management, said in a report Monday "the similarities between now and [the mid-to-late 1990s] are eerily alike."
With that in mind, Roland and Miskin said investors should favor tech, momentum, and quality stocks as well as riskier segments of the fixed-income market, such as convertible bonds, preferred securities, and high yield corporates.
The potential bad news? The mid-to-late '90s exuberance eventually led to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
"On a valuation basis, we are getting closer to levels reached in 2000," Roland and Miskin wrote.
But we might not be at peak frothiness just yet, suggesting the bull market could last longer. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven exchange-traded fund now trades at 32 times earnings estimates. And while that is only slightly below its multiyear high, it isn't nearly as rich as the valuations for tech stocks in the late 1990s or for blue chips such as Coca-Cola, Xerox, McDonald's, and IBM in the 1970s.
"I don't think the Magnificent Seven are as overvalued as the Four Horsemen of tech were in 2000 or the Nifty Fifty in the early 1970s," said Kane Brenan, CEO of TIFF Investment Management.
The lesson is that pricey stocks could climb even higher until there is a definitive catalyst to knock them down. And for now, Wall Street is betting the good times will keep rolling for a little while longer.
Write to Paul R. La Monica at paul.lamonica@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 09, 2024 14:37 ET (19:37 GMT)
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