Costco Stock Climbs After Earnings. Why Analysts Don't Mind Its High Price Tag. -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones12-14

By Sabrina Escobar

Costco Wholesale stock was on track to set yet another record close Friday following its latest earnings report.

Analysts were cheering the company's fiscal first-quarter earnings beat and continued sales growth -- and raised their price targets for the stock even higher. The shares' average price target was $1,017.41 as of Friday morning, according to FactSet. The average target was $940.37 at the end of November.

Shares were climbing higher Friday in a bid to meet those goals. The stock was up 0.7% in early afternoon trading to $994.74.

"We continue to believe that COST is the highest quality company in our coverage, with multiple decades of global warehouse expansion opportunities ahead, which supports its high valuation," wrote Zhihan Ma, an analyst at Bernstein. She rates the stock Outperform, and raised her price target to $1,132 price target on Friday from $1,062. Costco trades hands at 53.8 times forward earnings -- well above most of its retail peers.

Analysts like Ma say the company has proven time and again that its stock is worthy of its lofty price tag.

Late Thursday, Costco posted earnings of $4.04 a share on $62.2 billion in revenue for its quarter ended Nov. 24. Same-store sales increased 5.2%.

E-commerce same-store sales rose by 13% this quarter compared with a year ago.

Groceries remain at the heart of Costco's business, but the strong online performance suggests that nonfood categories are also performing well. Indeed, items such as gold and jewelry, gift cards, home furnishings, sporting goods, health and beauty, and hardware all saw sales increase by double-digits this quarter, executives said. That bodes well for the holiday season, analysts say.

Management "sounded positive on the health of the consumer and indicated that holiday sell-through has been very strong," wrote Paul Lejuez, an analyst at Citi. "COST has seen a shift towards food at home vs food away from home, which should also be a favorable dynamic."

Lejuez has a Neutral rating on the stock with an $800 price target.

The results also suggest that the company is seeing traction with e-commerce. Costco is behind many of its peers in terms of the company's digital and technological capabilities, Ma wrote.

But it makes sense for Costco to "selectively embrace" e-commerce, she added, given that its higher wages make it cost-prohibitive to bring same-day grocery delivery in-house.

"We continue to make progress with our technology road map and enhancements made to the member experience, like the ability to check warehouse inventory via the Costco app, are resonating well," said Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip.

The company is also making early inroads into building out its advertising business. Throughout the quarter, Costco completed its first targeted media campaign through third-party media channels, achieving a higher return on ad spend than expected, executives said. Costco's media team is now working with more than 25 suppliers who are "eager to participate" in the company's next set of campaigns.

Companies like Amazon.com and Walmart have invested heavily in growing their advertising business, also called retail media networks, in a bid to pad profits. Indeed, Walmart bought TV maker Vizio this year in a bid to expand its advertising reach.

Costco's media network isn't as well-developed as those of its competitors, but it could provide a "substantial opportunity" in the future, wrote Karen Short, an analyst at Melius Research. She rates the stock Hold with a $1,050 price target.

Write to Sabrina Escobar at sabrina.escobar@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

 

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December 13, 2024 13:10 ET (18:10 GMT)

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