Why a dramatic jump in small business optimism is about more than small business: Chart of the Week

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The NFIB's small business optimism index surged dramatically in November, riding the post-election euphoria over Donald Trump's incoming presidency to post the biggest monthly gain since 1980.This didn't come as a surprise. The barometer is notoriously tied to politics, thanks to the strong link between Republican leadership, loose regulatory environments, and lower taxes, which drive small business morale.Whether this is true is, of course, up for debate. The NFIB release says that small businesses expect a \"repeat performance\" of Trump's sub-2% first-term inflation — while hardly any economists expect those numbers amid plans for tariffs, tax cuts, and other inflationary policies.In his 2025 equity outlook, Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist David Kostin wrote that his team expects the improved small business outlook to \"lift the earnings and valuation of ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"yahoo.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU2317271919.USD":"BGF FUTURE CONSUMER \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1236620834.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM DIVIDEND \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU2506951875.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","BK4104":"贸易公司与经销商","LU2506952097.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4137":"综合支持服务","LU2552382132.HKD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4597":"股息贵族","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU0476273544.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"BU\" (USD) ACC","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU2413666699.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU0203201768.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) INC","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","INTU":"财捷","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","WM":"美国废物管理","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","BK4220":"综合零售","LU2720916845.USD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","GRPN":"GroupOn","URI":"联合租赁","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","CTAS":"信达思","GTLS":"查特工业","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2237957811.SGD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (SGD) ACC","LU0472753341.HKD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","DE":"迪尔股份有限公司","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"translate_title":"为什么小企业乐观情绪大幅跃升不仅仅与小企业有关：本周图表","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WM":1,"INTU":1,"GTLS":1,"GRPN":1,"DE":1,"SHOP":1,"URI":1,"CTAS":1,"META":0.9},"content_text":"This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:\n\nThe chart of the day\nWhat we're watching\nWhat we're reading\nEconomic data releases and earnings\n\nThe NFIB's small business optimism index surged dramatically in November, riding the post-election euphoria over Donald Trump's incoming presidency to post the biggest monthly gain since 1980.\nThis didn't come as a surprise. The barometer is notoriously tied to politics, thanks to the strong link between Republican leadership, loose regulatory environments, and lower taxes, which drive small business morale.\nWhether this is true is, of course, up for debate. The NFIB release says that small businesses expect a \"repeat performance\" of Trump's sub-2% first-term inflation — while hardly any economists expect those numbers amid plans for tariffs, tax cuts, and other inflationary policies. \nBut warranted or not, a surge in optimism that big for this oft-ignored index deserves a second look this time — and our selection as Chart of the Week. Because sentiment can have real dollar effects in markets.\n\nIf the jump — which puts the index at June 2021 levels and above its 50-year average for the first time in a couple of years — is big enough to change how small businesses hire and spend, the knock-on effects will reverberate throughout markets.\nIn his 2025 equity outlook, Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist David Kostin wrote that his team expects the improved small business outlook to \"lift the earnings and valuation of stocks with revenues tied to that spending.\"\nHe made a list of 60 stocks that derive most or even all of their income from small businesses. You can guess many of them. A sampler: United Rentals (URI), Groupon (GRPN), Intuit (INTU), Cintas (CTAS), Deere (DE), Waste Management (WM), and Shopify (SHOP).\nSome of them are even the biggest of Big Tech: Just think of all the companies that market on Facebook and Instagram. Their parent company Meta (META) gets 75% of its revenue from small businesses. Though artificial intelligence has distorted the stock's valuation, it's the little guy who's keeping Meta's lights on. The money is real.\nKostin's argument is bolstered by the latest sentiment reading — and by the gains and the broadening of the post-election stock market. However, the details of the NFIB's small business optimism release show that it's something to monitor through surveys for very small businesses and quarterly releases for small public companies.\nWhile the \"expects economy to improve\" component surged — along with sales expectations — respondents who actually plan to increase spending only grew by the mid-single digits. \nEthan Wolff-Mann is a Senior Editor at Yahoo Finance, running newsletters. Follow him on X @ewolffmann.\nClick here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices\nRead the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2491581563"}