高盛：美联储明年1月不太可能降息！

金十数据12-16

高盛的经济学家认为，美联储在本周晚些时候的会议上可能会暗示未来降息步伐放缓，并在明年1月份跳过降息。虽然这家美国银行预计美联储周四仍会降息25个基点，但近期评论暗示，美联储存在“明确”的愿望来抑制降息步伐，终端利率也可能高于其最初的预期。包括Jan Hatzius在内的高盛经济学家在上周日发布的一份报告中写道。这是因为失业率将低于美联储对2024年的预测，通胀率仍高于目标。高盛的经济学家还指出...

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Hatzius在内的高盛经济学家在上周日发布的一份报告中写道。这是因为失业率将低于美联储对2024年的预测，通胀率仍高于目标。\n高盛的经济学家还指出，美联储官员已表示对最终利率持更加开放的态度，并且可能对在何处停止降息持谨慎态度。\n他们写道，“声明和新闻发布会的关键问题是，美联储是相对于强调放慢降息步伐，还是强调继续依靠逐次会议和数据做出决定，我们预计会同时听到这两种信息，包括在声明中增加一项同意放缓降息步伐的内容。”\n在11月份通胀数据具有粘性之后，人们对美联储利率的预期发生了变化，而其他数据也显示了劳动力市场的弹性。\n高盛的观点正与市场定价相符，后者认为本周美联储降息的可能性为90%，但已经很大程度上消除了明年1月份再次降息的可能性。高盛继续预计美联储将在明年3月、6月和9月降息，终端利率预期略微提高，至3.5%-3.75%。\n经济学家写道，“我们的基准和概率加权美联储预测都比市场定价更为温和，一个关键原因是，我们认为在第二个特朗普政府的潜在政策变化下，利率面临的风险比通常假设的更具双面性。”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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