By Teresa Rivas
Walmart stock has soared past the S&P 500's gains in 2024, and analysts think its star moment can continue.
Everything seems to be going right for the discount behemoth, whose shares have climbed 78% this year. Persistent inflation has led even six-figure earners to shop at Walmart, thanks to its reputation for value. Its investments in tech are paying off, and the company now has multiple revenue streams that are helping its business diversify beyond the core retail segment.
Walmart has easily outperformed the broader market since Barron's made the case for it in the summer of 2023.
It's little wonder then that analysts see its winning streak continuing.
"Walmart remains one of our top ideas heading into 2025," noted Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe on Thursday. He reiterated a Buy rating and a price target of $111 -- the highest on the Street, but one that he feels is justified given the company's catalysts.
Those stock drivers include its gains in market share among higher-income shoppers, along with an inflection in discretionary spending. As people start to spend more on things that they want -- not just essentials -- Walmart seems to be benefitting from more than its big rival, Target.)
Meanwhile, the company's nontraditional revenue sources, which include advertising, fulfillment services, and membership fees for its Walmart+ subscription service lead him to believe that the company can grow same-store sales 4% or higher in the longer term, ahead of consensus estimates.
That's key, given that Tarlowe's analysis dating back two decades shows that same-store sales growth has historically supported multiple expansion for the stock.
Walmart currently trades around 34 times forward earnings, well above its five-year average and many retail peers' multiples. However he believes that comparable sales momentum will allow the valuation to approach 40 times. He sees "substantial upside to estimates and the multiple ahead."
He's not alone. Ninety percent of the 41 analysts tracked by FactSet are bullish on the stock, with only one bear on the Street. Consensus estimates call for Walmart's earnings per share to jump more than 11% this year and next.
Walmart shares famously outperformed during the depths of the financial crisis, climbing more than 10% in 2008 when the S&P lost well over a third of its value. Even this week, this pattern was evident: The stock lost meaningfully less than the broader market during Wednesday's selloff. This shows that while it has run ahead of the recent years' rally, it also hasn't lost its defensive bona fides.
Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 19, 2024 11:44 ET (16:44 GMT)
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