3M's (MMM) initial 2025 guidance will likely be "better than feared" after management's recent comments triggered investor concerns, UBS Securities said Tuesday in a report.
UBS estimates buy-side expectations for the industrial conglomerate's 2025 per-share earnings in the $7.50 range, compared with Wall Street's projections for $7.90, driven by $0.30 of headwinds "below the line."
"Bottom-up work" by UBS puts the initial outlook in the $7.80 range, the report said. "The 30c below-the-line headwind in 2025 does not include any prospective share repurchases, which is an important point given our estimate of $3 billion of buybacks in 2025," UBS said.
UBS also projects a $275 million benefit from nonrecurrence of restructuring charges and some benefit from 3M's net productivity actions.
"There are plenty of nonrevenue-driven cost items that should allow for nice operating profit and margin improvement," UBS said. "We see additional benefits in 2026 as growth accelerates and additional productivity savings are realized."
UBS has a buy rating on 3M stock and a $184 price target.
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