FOMC Projections

Calculated Risk12-18 14:09

Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been...

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Since the last projections were released,economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations.So, the projections for GDP were revised up for 2024, the unemployment rate revised down for 2024, and inflation revised up for the next couple of years.In September, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 3.375% at the end of 2025  and the long run range was 2.5% to 3.5%. The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 3.875% at the end of 2025  and the long run range is2.8% to 3.6%.The BEA'ssecond estimate for Q3 GDP showed real growth at 2.8% annualized, following 3.0% annualized real growth in Q2, and 1.6% in Q1. Current estimates for Q4 GDP are around 2.6%. That put real growth in 2024, Q4 over Q4, at 2.5% - well above the top end of the Sep","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"calculatedriskblog.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"FOMC":"FOMO CORP.","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务"},"translate_title":"FOMC预测","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FOMC":1},"content_text":"Statement here.\n\nFed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.\n\nHere are the projections.  Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although there are some \"base effects\" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4).So, the projections for GDP were revised up for 2024, the unemployment rate revised down for 2024, and inflation revised up for the next couple of years.In September, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 3.375% at the end of 2025 (3.1%–3.6%) and the long run range was 2.5% to 3.5%.  The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 3.875% at the end of 2025 (3.6%-4.1%) and the long run range is 2.8% to 3.6%.  The BEA's second estimate for Q3 GDP showed real growth at 2.8% annualized, following 3.0% annualized real growth in Q2, and 1.6% in Q1.  Current estimates for Q4 GDP are around 2.6%.  That put real growth in 2024, Q4 over Q4, at 2.5% - well above the top end of the September FOMC projections.  \n\n\nGDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1\nProjection Date2024202520262027\nDec 20242.4 to 2.51.8 to 2.21.9 to 2.11.8 to 2.0\nSept 20241.9 to 2.11.8 to 2.21.9 to 2.31.8 to 2.1\n\n\n1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  \n\nThe unemployment rate was at 4.2% in November (and 4.1% in October).  This is below the low end of the September projections for Q4.\n\n\nUnemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2\nProjection Date2024202520262027\nDec 20244.24.2 to 4.54.1 to 4.44.0 to 4.4Sept 20244.3 to 4.44.2 to 4.54.0 to 4.44.0 to 4.4\n\n\n2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  \n\nAs of October 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY). This is in the middle of the September projection range.\n\n\nInflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1\nProjection Date2024202520262027\nDec 20242.4 to 2.52.3 to 2.62.0-2.22.0Sept 20242.2 to 2.42.1 to 2.22.02.0\n\n\nPCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY in October. This was slightly above the range of FOMC projections for Q4.\n\n\nCore Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 \nProjection Date2024202520262027\nDec 20242.8 to 2.92.5 to 2.72.0-2.32.0 Sept 20242.6 to 2.72.1 to 2.32.02.0","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2492213707"}