Federal Reserve, Treasury Yields Put Trump On Notice; Stocks May Be 'Sloppy'

Blockhead03:11

The Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell's discourse clearly spooked the bond market on Wednesday. Markets had priced in 50 basis points in rate cuts next year, and that's exactly what Fed ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2492483531?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/stock-Jerome-Powell-01-fed-150x150.jpg","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2024-12-20 03:11","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2492483531","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Federal Reserve, Treasury Yields Put Trump On Notice; Stocks May Be 'Sloppy'","media":"Blockhead","content":"<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell's discourse clearly spooked the bond market on Wednesday. Markets had priced in 50 basis points in rate cuts next year, and that's exactly what Fed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/news/economy/federal-reserve-treasury-yields-trump-sp-500/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investor_business_daily_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve, Treasury Yields Put Trump On Notice; Stocks May Be 'Sloppy'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve, Treasury Yields Put Trump On Notice; Stocks May Be 'Sloppy'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-20 03:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investors.com/news/economy/federal-reserve-treasury-yields-trump-sp-500/><strong>Blockhead</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell's discourse clearly spooked the bond market on Wednesday. Markets had priced in 50 basis points in rate cuts next year, and that's exactly what Fed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/news/economy/federal-reserve-treasury-yields-trump-sp-500/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"VOO","symbol_name":"Vanguard标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/news/economy/federal-reserve-treasury-yields-trump-sp-500/","article_id":"2492483531","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/stock-Jerome-Powell-01-fed-150x150.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2492483531","pubTimestamp":1734635510,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"investor_business_daily_highlight","name":"Investor’s Business Daily"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Why did the Federal Reserve meeting send Treasury yields soaring and the S&P 500 tumbling? It has a lot to do with President-elect Trump's agenda.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"investors.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","NVDS":"Tradr 1.5X Short NVDA Daily ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","NVDU":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","NVDX":"T-REX 2X LONG NVIDIA DAILY TARGET ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","NVDY":"YIELDMAX NVDA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","SPY":"标普500ETF","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NVD":"GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","NVDD":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","LU2452424414.USD":"BGF ESG MULTI-ASSET \"A10\" (USDHDG) INC","LU0251132253.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","SH":"标普500反向ETF","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","BK4529":"IDC概念"},"translate_title":"美联储、国债收益率让特朗普受到关注；股票可能“草率”","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1,"US7Y.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US10Y.BOND":1,"VOO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"The Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell's discourse clearly spooked the bond market on Wednesday. Markets had priced in 50 basis points in rate cuts next year, and that's exactly what Fed projections showed. But the market now sees just one quarter-point rate cut in 2025.\nIn other words, markets didn't believe what the Fed said, and the reason has seemingly everything to do with President-elect Donald Trump's agenda.\n\n\n\n↑\nX\n\n\n\n\nThis Is How A New President Will Impact Fed Rate Cuts In 2025\n\n\nSee All Videos\n\n\n\n\nNOW PLAYING\nThis Is How A New President Will Impact Fed Rate Cuts In 2025\n\n\n\n\nFederal Reserve Projections Soft-Pedal Trump Agenda\nPowell has said that the Fed won't factor in the implications of Trump's agenda for monetary policy until it becomes clear what those policies are. Yet Wall Street isn't waiting. While the specifics are far from clear, lower taxes, higher tariffs and more deregulation are all very likely, as is tighter immigration policy.\nPlugging in Deutsche Bank's assumptions, Matthew Raskin, U.S. head of interest-rate research, expects the U.S. economy to grow a solid 2.5% next year, as the unemployment rate slips just below 4%. By comparison, new Fed projections issued Wednesday see U.S. growth slowing to 2.1% as unemployment ticks up to 4.3%.\nIgnoring Trump's agenda and its impact on the economy next year makes Wednesday's Fed projections of marginal value. Deutsche Bank, for its part, sees the Federal Reserve on hold all next year.\nTrump Policy Uncertainty\nPowell did note that some of the 19 Fed policymakers took preliminary steps to incorporate the impact of Trump policies, while others did not. Among those who did, Powell said, some identified \"policy uncertainty\" as contributing to a more uncertain inflation outlook.\nFed policymakers' projections for core inflation in 2025 ranged from 2.1% to 3.2%, vs the current 2.8% rate. The Fed's median projection for next year is 2.5%.\nPowell's commentary was generally dovish. However, the high degree of policy uncertainty for the Fed is \"not unlike driving on a foggy night,\" Powell said. \"You just slow down.\"\nAt the moment, markets are leaning against another rate cut until the May 7 meeting. Even then, the odds are just 57% for a cut.\nPowell noted that the Federal Reserve was able to look through any potential inflationary impact from Trump tariffs in 2018 and 2019, partly because of the low inflation backdrop. This time around, having gone through a multiyear period of elevated inflation, the Fed's approach could be different, Powell indicated.\n\"I wouldn't say that we know whether the last episode is or is not a good model,\" Powell said.\nHe seemed to imply that, barring labor market weakness, a stalling of inflation at elevated levels due to tariffs could impede additional rate cuts. \"As we think about further cuts, we're going to be looking for progress on inflation.\"\n10-Year Treasury Yield Flashes Yellow\nThe 10-year Treasury yield's surge \"clearly suggests investors want a term premium for investing in longer term Treasuries,\" wrote Christopher Wood, Jefferies global head of equity strategy.\nA term premium is the extra compensation bond investors require for holding long-term securities, rather than short-term. The term premium for Treasuries rises when investors get nervous about unwieldy deficits and rising debt levels.\nThe 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.5% in the week following Trump's clean-sweep election on expectations of deficit-funded tax cuts. But Trump calmed the so-called \"bond vigilantes\" by selecting hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, a fiscal hawk, as his Treasury secretary and tapping Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to run the newly created Department of Government Efficiency.\nThis week's resurgence in the 10-year yield seems to show that markets aren't yet convinced by those appointments. Treasury yields' continued rise Thursday comes even after Musk and Trump both came out in opposition to the government's short-term funding bill that needs to pass by Friday night to avoid a shutdown.\nThe 10-year Treasury yield jumped eight basis points Thursday afternoon to 4.57%. It hit 4.59% intraday, the highest since the end of May. That's after spiking 11 basis points on Wednesday.\nBrace For 'Sloppy' S&P 500\nTo some extent, the S&P 500 and bond market reaction to the Fed's rate cut on Wednesday looks like a perfect \"sell-the-news\" opportunity.\nThat's because, with the last assured Fed rate cut out of the way, the news flow is less positive. That's already happening with the rising risk of a shutdown, though the 10-year Treasury yield would presumably fall back if the government actually shuts down.\nIn a Thursday note, market strategist Ed Yardeni wrote that \"the stock market might remain sloppy through January.\"\nHis list of reasons includes a potential longshoreman's strike in mid-January and \"a blizzard of executive orders\" on the first day of Trump's presidency, likely to involve tariffs and deportations.\nBeyond that, Yardeni expects some profit taking into January after two great years for the market. He doesn't rule out a 10% correction but is keeping his 7,000 year-end target for the S&P 500.\nThe S&P 500 recouped 0.6% in Thursday afternoon stock market action, after diving 2.95% on Wednesday. Nvidia (NVDA) and other megacap techs provided some support.\nThe S&P 500 on Wednesday closed 3.6% below its Dec. 6 all-time closing high, closing below the 50-day line for the first time in three months.\nBe sure to read IBD's The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.\nYOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE:\nJoin IBD Live Each Morning For Stock Tips Before The Open\nThese Are The Best 5 Stocks To Buy And Watch Now\nIBD Digital: Unlock IBD's Premium Stock Lists, Tools And Analysis Today\nHow To Make Money In Stocks In 3 Simple Steps\nAI News: Artificial Intelligence Trends and Top AI Stocks To Watch","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2492483531"}