金吾财讯 | DWS首席美国经济学家Christian Scherrmann表示,近期美国的经济数据好坏参半,虽然劳动力市场看似于波动中趋于疲软,但通胀仍然表现顽固。最新的11月份消费者物价指数(CPI)符合预期,虽然显示价格涨幅持续放缓,但近几个月势头显然有所减弱。尽管如此,DWS认为遏抑通胀仍取得一定进展,进一步降息的机会仍然存在,但同时预计美联储将在12月会议后放慢降息步伐。除此之外,未来财政和贸易政策仍是主要的未知因素。DWS认为美联储将发出需要更长时间将利率下调至中性,预计在3至3.5%之间。因此,DWS预计美联储即将发布的经济预测摘要,将显示明年经济将持续强劲增长,但降息次数将减少,而通胀略微上升。DWS已将明年底前的降息预测从5次下调至3次(包括12月的一次)。在时间安排方面,DWS预计美联储可能在明年上半年改为每季度调整一次,然后在下半年暂停利率政策的正常化步伐。
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