MW A Honda-Nissan merger would be a sign of things to come in auto industry, analyst says
By Bill Peters
'We believe automakers will continue to look to tie-ups ... which seem more likely than outright mergers,' UBS analyst says
Shares of Nissan Motor Co. closed 23.7% higher on Wednesday, following reports that the Japanese automaker was planning merger discussions with Honda Motor Co. Some analysts said any deal would be a sign of what's to come for the auto industry.
Were it to happen, a merger would create a massive automobile company in the wake of numerous challenges: new cars that are too expensive for many shoppers, competition from U.S. and Chinese-made electric vehicles - where demand itself has been in question - and slipping sales for Nissan (JP:7201).
Such a deal could also push prices higher for car buyers. But UBS analysts, led by Joseph Spak, said it might be necessary to stay competitive as the industry evolves.
"This is another sign of what we believe is much-needed consolidation and/or industry capital efficiency to remain competitive in a rapidly changing industry," Spak said in a note Tuesday. "We believe automakers will continue to look to tie-ups (GM/Hyundai, VW/Rivian) which seem more likely than outright mergers. GM does have an arrangement with Honda on fuel cell development."
He added later: "However, if a merger were to occur, the entities could look to sourcing savings."
In August, Nissan and Honda (JP:7267) $(HMC)$ agreed to research deeper possibilities in so-called software-defined vehicles, or automobiles that, to a large degree, can run on software upgrades. Earlier in the year, the two said they were studying the prospects for a strategic partnership, and noted that they "face common challenges."
"As announced in March of this year, Honda and Nissan are exploring various possibilities for future collaboration, leveraging each other's strengths," the two said in a statement on Tuesday. "We will inform our stakeholders of any updates at an appropriate time."
As MarketWatch noted on Tuesday, sales for Honda and Nissan have been sluggish in China and Southeast Asia, and they've scaled back production as demand has faltered.
General Motors Co. $(GM)$ and Hyundai Motor Co. (KR:005380) in September said they had signed an agreement under which the two planned to explore potential joint product development and clean-energy technology, adding that they hoped for "increased competitiveness through collaboration."
In November, Volkswagen (XE:VOW) and Rivian Automotive Inc. $(RIVN)$ launched a joint venture, with plans to "bring next-generation electrical architecture and best-in-class software technology" to their electric vehicles.
Automobile-information service Edmunds on Tuesday forecast 16.2 million new-vehicle sales in the U.S. for 2025, a 1.4% gain and the highest yearly sales figure for new automobiles since 2019.
Lower interest rates might help those sales, as would people who feel more optimistic about the economy under President-elect Donald Trump, Edmunds said. However, it said a tougher tariff regime under Trump - duties he says will ultimately help the U.S. negotiate better trade deals and replenish manufacturing jobs - could drive prices higher.
The possible loss of federal EV tax credits, Edmunds said, could drive EV sales higher initially - as buyers try to lock in assistance with purchases - but hurt sales once they fall away. While Edmunds said any policy changes might not land immediately, automakers could have to push incentives harder to attract stretched consumers.
"Consumers are still feeling the pinch, but the market has become a slightly friendlier place for car shoppers than it was at the start of the year," Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' head of insights, said in a statement on Tuesday.
-Bill Peters
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 18, 2024 15:51 ET (20:51 GMT)
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