Some of This Year's Big Losers Look Good to Me

GuruFocus.com12-17

December 16, 2024 (Maple Hill Syndicate) As each yeardraws to a close, I like to poke the embers of stocks that have done the worst. Through unlucky Friday (Dec. 13), here are the worst performers ...

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This year there are three Intel, Moderna and Walgreens.Intel is trading 73% below its all-time high, which was reached about 24 years ago. The company, which was the king of chips for personal computers, partially missed the transition to mobile devices and largely missedthe movement to artificial intelligence.However, I think Intel will benefit from the political and economic conflict between the U.S. and China. Intel still makes a lot of its chips in the U.S., and therefore may get a lot of money from the Chips and Sc","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"yahoo.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4545":"锂电池","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4200":"专卖店","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BK4093":"化肥与农用药剂","INTC":"英特尔",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","USJW.SI":"ALPHAB 3xLongSG261006","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","FIVE":"Five Below","BK4515":"5G概念","CE":"塞拉尼斯","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","BK4109":"特种化学制品","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0385154629.USD":"贝莱德营养科学基金A2","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4128":"药品零售","BK4602":"量子计算概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0471298777.SGD":"Blackrock Nutrition A2 SGD-H","USAW.SI":"AMZN 3xLongSG261006","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","FMC":"FMC Corp.","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股"},"translate_title":"今年的一些大输家在我看来不错","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WBA":1,"CE":1,"FMC":1,"INTC":1,"MRNA":1,"FIVE":0.9,".IXIC":0.8,"USJW.SI":0.6,"USAW.SI":0.6,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6},"content_text":"December 16, 2024 (Maple Hill Syndicate) As each yeardraws to a close, I like to poke the embers of stocks that have done the worst.\nThrough unlucky Friday (Dec. 13), here are the worst performers among all U.S. stocks that have a current market value of at least $5 billion and that were publicly traded for all of 2024. \n\nIntel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) takes the booby prize, down 59%.\nModerna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) has fallen 58%.\nWalgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:WBA) has lost 57%.\nCelanese Corp. (NYSE:CE) is off 55%. \nFive Below Inc. (NASDAQ:FIVE) has declined 52%. \n\n\nWarning! GuruFocus has detected 8 Warning Signs with INTC.\n\nMost years, I find one or two stocks among the biggest losers that I think are worth buying. This year there are three Intel, Moderna and Walgreens. \nIntel\nIntel is trading 73% below its all-time high, which was reached about 24 years ago. The company, which was the king of chips for personal computers, partially missed the transition to mobile devices and largely missedthe movement to artificial intelligence. \nEarnings have fallen severely since 2021. CEO Pat Gelsinger was booted out in early December. \nHowever, I think Intel will benefit from the political and economic conflict between the U.S. and China. Intel still makes a lot of its chips in the U.S., and therefore may get a lot of money from the Chips and Science Act of 2022. It has already been allocated $7.8 billion. \nThe Chips Act was a pet project of President Joe Biden, and President-elect Donald Trump criticized it on the campaign trail. Nonetheless, I suspect that Trump will leave it mostly in place. \nModerna\nModerna played a big role in saving the U.S. from the Covid-19 pandemic. It doesn't offer a broad cornucopia of drugs, but I believe that its messenger RNA paradigm may, and probably will, lead to other usefuldrugs. \nThe stock, at about $42, is trading 91% below the heights it reached during the height of the pandemic. The company is sustaining losses. But it still has a good balance sheet, with more than $6 billion in cash andmarketable securities. Debt is only 11% of the company's net worth. \nThat should buy the company time to develop more drugs and return to profitability. Confession: I also recommended Moderna a year ago, thinking it had bottomed. How wrong I was.\nWalgreens\nFrom the way investors have soured on Walgreens, you would think bankruptcy was imminent. I think it's unlikely. Before Walgreens hit its current rough patch (with losses in the past two fiscal years), it had a profitstreak of at least 28 consecutive years. \nTim Wentworth, the company's CEO, said on a recent earnings call that about 6,000 of the chain's 8,700 stores are profitable. He said the company will close about 1,200 stores over the next three years. This makes methink there's a decent possibility of righting the ship. \nThere have also been rumors that Walgreens would consider being bought by a private-equity firm. \nCelanese\nCelanese, based in Irving, Texas, is a chemical company producing acetic acid and polymers. Earnings have nosedived this year, due partly to increased competition from Asia and weakness in the auto industry (amajor market for this company). It may recover but I don't recommend it, mostly because debt is high. \nFive Below\nWith about 1,700 stores, Five Below is a retailer that caters to teens and tweens. Most items in its stores are prices at $5 or less. The more expensive ones are about $25. \nI'm pessimistic on this stock because I figure the company needs to import a great deal of its merchandise in order to offer the low prices teens want. If President-elect Trump gets the tariffs he proposes, I think Five Below will be hurt. \nThe Record\nThe column you just read marks the 14th time I've tried to pick through the rubble of the year's biggest losers. For the first 13, the average one-year return on the stocks I liked was 20.99%, versus 16.84% for the Standard & Poor's Total Return Index.\nOnly four of the 13 columns have beaten the index, but those four beat it by a large margin, in each case with a return over 100%. \nBear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn't be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn't predict the future.\nMy two picks from a year ago flopped. Moderna fell 51% and FMC Corp. (NYSE:FMC) fell 6%. That pulled down my long-term average quite a bit. \nDisclosure: I own Intel and Moderna for one or more clients. A hedge fund I manage holds call options on Walgreens. \nJohn Dorfman is chairman of Dorfman Value Investments LLC in Boston, Massachusetts, and a syndicated columnist. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column. He can be reached at jdorfman@dorfmanvalue.com. This article first appeared on \nGuruFocus.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2492612444"}