MW What a Honda merger with Nissan tells us about Chinese strength in the EV market
By Mike Murphy
Chinese electric-vehicle maker BYD is reportedly on pace to surpass both Ford and Honda in sales this year
Japanese automobile makers Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. are exploring the possibility of a merger, according to reports late Tuesday, in a bid to better compete against foreign electric-vehicle makers like Tesla Inc. and China's BYD.
Nikkei Asia first reported late Tuesday that Japan's second- and third-largest car companies will enter merger negotiations, and are considering operating under a holding company. The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News and the New York Times also reported on the possibility of a merger, which would create one of the world's biggest car companies.
"As announced in March of this year, Honda and Nissan are exploring various possibilities for future collaboration, leveraging each other's strengths," Honda and Nissan said in a joint statement. "We will inform our stakeholders of any updates at an appropriate time."
Nissan shares (JP:7201) soared 23% in Tokyo trading following the reports, while Honda's stock (JP:7267) $(HMC)$ slipped 3%. Nissan's stock is down about 25% to date in 2024. Honda's Japanese shares are down about 15% this year, while its U.S.-traded shares are down around 18%.
Stock in Mitsubishi Motors (JP:7211), of which Nissan owns a nearly 25% stake, jumped 19% - Nikkei Asia reported that Mitsubishi could also be included in any holding company.
Meanwhile, in Paris, shares of Nissan's biggest shareholder, Renault (FR:RNO), jumped 5%.
Also read: Tesla's stock surge means even the biggest bulls are showing some restraint
Earlier this year, Nissan and Honda announced a partnership to develop electric vehicles and auto-intelligence technology, citing the "common challenges" they face.
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Both Honda and Nissan have seen sales drop sharply in China and Southeast Asia this year amid inroads made by Tesla and cheaper Chinese-made cars, and have been forced to cut production capacity as global demand has dipped.
Japanese automobile makers have fallen behind in the global shift toward electric vehicles. Reuters last week reported Chinese EV maker BYD is on pace to surpass both Ford and Honda in sales this year, topping 4 million, with an estimate that BYD (CN:002594) could sell 6 million cars over the next 12 months.
Tesla $(TSLA)$ is expected to sell around 1.75 million cars in 2024.
See: Here's why Ford's stock could continue lagging GM's
Honda sold around 4.2 million cars last year, while Nissan sold about 3.4 million. Industry leaders Toyota Motor Corp. (JP:7203) and Germany's Volkswagen AG (XE:VOW) (VWAPY) (VWAGY) sold about 11.2 million and 9.2 million, respectively, in 2023.
"The merger of the three companies would create an auto group with sales of 8mn [million] vehicles. Our initial impression is that a merger would be negative for Honda but positive for Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors," said Arifumi Yoshida, an analyst at Citi, in a note to clients.
"Given Honda's competitiveness in motorcycles and [hybrid electric vehicles] and the strength of its brand, we believe it is positioned to take on rivals for the next 5-10 years. However, the decision can be viewed as one that has been made in anticipation of the full-scale transformation of the auto industry," Yoshida added.
A "clear demonstration of merger benefits" will be required to see Honda share prices rise further, said the analyst.
A team of Jefferies analysts led by Philippe Houchois said a deal would continue the consolidation of Japanese automobile makers into two main groups, improve scale and accelerate technology developments.
Talks between the two Japanese companies got a push after iPhone maker Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., otherwise known as Foxconn, made an approach to Nissan about a stake, Bloomberg reported, citing a source. Foxconn has been pushing into the EV space over the past few years.
Barbara Kollmeyer contributed.
MarketWatch data: A real-time check-in on EV stocks from Tesla to Rivian to Polestar to BYD to Nio to Vinfast
-Mike Murphy
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December 18, 2024 11:43 ET (16:43 GMT)
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