By Carol Ryan
"One word: plastics." Career advice given to Dustin Hoffman's aimless character in "The Graduate" turned out to be pretty solid. Since the film's 1967 release, global plastic use has risen twentyfold. But the plot is thickening just as Big Oil grows dependent on the wonder-material.
As people switch to electric cars, or at least buy more fuel-efficient versions of traditional vehicles, energy companies will have too much oil on their hands.
Transport currently accounts for over half of global oil demand. Ciarán Healy, an oil market analyst at the International Energy Agency, points out that even without a further uptick in EV sales, efficiency improvements in internal combustion engine cars mean the same amount of driving will be done with less gas in the future. The IEA thinks the world is on track to have eight million barrels a day of excess oil capacity by 2030.
Energy companies hope consumers will soak up the glut through their clothing, food and electronic goods. Exxon Mobil expects demand for products that have fossil fuel-derived components and shells like "cellphones and medical supplies, as well as products necessary to preserve food and improve hygiene" to increase. London-listed BP thinks growth in petrochemicals will offset fuel declines for another decade.
Crude oil and natural gas are turned into petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha or natural gas liquids in a gas-processing plant or at an oil refinery. They are then "cracked" into the building blocks of common plastics. Ethylene is processed into polyethylene, which winds up in plastic bags, shampoo bottles and children's toys. Polypropylene is used for everything from car bumpers to carpets.
Today, 15.4% of global oil demand is driven by petrochemicals, according to data from Wood Mackenzie. The share is expected to rise to 19.1% by 2035 as emerging markets become wealthier and swelling middle classes spend more on synthetic clothing and do their grocery shopping at big supermarket chains, where food is more likely to be wrapped in plastic to prolong its shelf life.
Advanced economies like the U.S. use up to 20 times more plastic than developing nations on a per capita basis, according to the IEA. Big Oil's bet is that shoppers in emerging markets will close at least part of that gap.
Energy companies are pouring billions of dollars into petrochemical facilities, notably in China where ethylene capacity has almost doubled since 2019. Capacity is also rising in the U.S. and Middle East. Saudi Arabia wants to invest $600 billion into petrochemicals by the end of the decade to secure nonfuel uses of its crude oil.
But the global petrochemical industry is already saturated and capacity is expected to outstrip demand until at least 2030. This points to weak profit margins and less-than-ideal utilization rates at petrochemical facilities.
Plants in high-cost regions are shutting down. Exxon Mobil sold refineries in Italy last year and plans to close an ethylene cracker in Normandy, France. Because of Europe's high energy costs and reliance on oil for feedstock, plants in the region can only produce petrochemicals at $750 a metric ton, says Irene Himona, European oil and gas analyst at Bernstein. This is three times more expensive than U.S. and Middle Eastern producers that have access to cheap shale gas and ultralow-cost oil, respectively, as feedstock.
Pumping money into petrochemicals as governments are trying to solve the problem of plastic waste feels risky. Earlier this month, countries that rely on oil exports for a large share of government revenue, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, torpedoed a global treaty that proposed curbs on plastic production. But tighter regulations are in the works anyway. More than 100 countries have introduced restrictions on plastic, including a ban on single-use plastic in the European Union.
Wasteful packaging looks vulnerable to further crackdowns. A worldwide ban on single-use plastic would wipe out a third of global plastic demand that comes from things like mini hotel toiletries, fast-food packaging and disposable cutlery, although there would probably be exemptions for categories like medical intravenous bags that are hard to substitute.
Higher plastic recycling rates also would make it difficult for petrochemical companies to make an acceptable return on their investments if this curbs demand for virgin material. Granted, oil producers look safe for now. Only around 10% of plastic is currently recycled and brand-new plastic is still the most cost-effective option.
This year, U.S. East Coast recycled PET has been nearly a third costlier than virgin U.S. PET spot prices on average, according to Emily Friedman, an expert in recycled plastics at commodity research firm ICIS. Some consumer staples are rolling back packaging sustainability pledges since switching to recycled material is proving too expensive.
The oil industry is resigned to slowly losing its grip on road transport. Turning to an oversupplied and wasteful petrochemicals sector for shelter is a risky strategy.
Write to Carol Ryan at carol.ryan@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 24, 2024 05:30 ET (10:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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