Can Disney Stock Finally Beat the Market in 2025?

Motley Fool12-23 23:45

Disney shares have fallen short of the S&P 500 every year since 2020. Disney just had a rough weekend at the box office, but it's still been a successful 2024 with reasons to get excited about ...

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Let's see if it can fare even better next year.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fool.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","DIS":"迪士尼","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0708994859.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","OEX":"标普100","LU1267930573.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"AA\" (SGD) ACC A","BK4524":"宅经济概念","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF"},"translate_title":"迪士尼股票最终能否在2025年跑赢大盘？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":1,"VOO":0.8,"SPY":0.8,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6},"content_text":"Disney shares have fallen short of the S&P 500 every year since 2020.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDisney just had a rough weekend at the box office, but it's still been a successful 2024 with reasons to get excited about 2025. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThere are more tailwinds than headwinds for the House of Mouse in fiscal 2025, and analysts see a double-digit jump in earnings ahead.\n\nIt's been a good year for Walt Disney (DIS -1.00%) investors. Shares of the media giant are trading 24% higher in 2024 heading into the final full trading week of the year. This happens to match the 24% increase for the S&P 500. If the media giant can edge out the market in the next few days it will be the first time since 2020 that Disney stock beats the S&P 500.Naturally investors don't want to simply be a pace car for the market, much less fall well short of the S&P 500 the way they have in the three previous years. Can Disney outperform the market in 2025 for the first time in five years? Let's take a closer look.Getting back on trackInstead of closing out 2024 with a bang, Disney is stumbling on its way to the finish line. Last week, Disney's ABC agreed to pay $15 million to settle a defamation lawsuit with President-elect Donald Trump. This past weekend, Disney disappointed at the local multiplex after a stellar recovery in 2024.Mufasa: The Lion King collected just $35 million in domestic ticket sales over the weekend, and $122 million worldwide. Industry predictions were eyeing $50 million domestically and $180 million globally in box office receipts. Adding insult to injury, the big-budget entry in the iconic Lion King franchise fell woefully short in the U.S. to the debut of Sonic the Hedgedog 3 and its $62 million take from stateside audiences.A couple of rungs lower, Disney's Moana 2 -- after three weekends at the top domestically -- fell to fourth place. It was overtaken by Wicked for the bronze, defying gravity, if you will, as it opened a week earlier than the sequel to 2016's Moana. It bears pointing out that Wicked doesn't have the same international appeal of Moana 2, as the latter has more than doubled box office receipts outside of the U.S. market.Moana 2 is going to be a big winner for Disney's bottom line. It has now topped $790 million globally, on its way to become the third Disney theatrical release of 2024 to top $1 billion following the summertime successes of Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine. None of Disney's studio releases in 2023 crossed that mark. Mufasa is now highly unlikely to join this year's three big winners. It will be challenging just to avoid a charge in the new fiscal year for the estimated $200 million production.The ABC settlement and lackluster Mufasa premiere are small hiccups for a company that has won more than lost in 2024. Disney is well positioned to continue roaring as fiscal 2025 plays out.Image source: Disney.Be preparedThis will be Disney's first year of double-digit gains since 2020. The shares would go on to experience back-to-back years of double-digit-percentage declines before squeezing out a 4% increase in 2023. Building on the momentum of 2024 is essential.There will be obstacles in 2025. Disney's domestic theme parks have stalled in recent quarters. It now faces an \"epic\" challenge as rival Comcast opens Epic Universe in Walt Disney World's backyard in May. Disney's linear networks segment should continue to fade in popularity as more consumers turn to streaming services. An iffy economy or global uneasiness could rattle most of Disney's operations.The positives still outweigh the negatives. After back-to-back quarters of positive operating profits, Disney+ and the rest of the media stock's streaming platforms have the leverage and content to dramatically ramp up on the bottom line. Disneyland will kick off the original gated attraction turning 70 with a celebration in May that will last for more than a year.Disney's studio will have plenty of potential blockbusters. The 2025 release slate includes fresh Marvel releases in the Captain America and The Fantastic Four franchises. On the animated front, Zootopia 2 and Pixar's Elio should fare well. There's also a highly anticipated live action spin on Lilo & Stitch. The final Disney cinematic release of the 2025 calendar year will be Avatar: Fire and Ash. The previous film in that franchise -- 2022's Avatar: The Way of Water -- is the world's highest-grossing film since the pandemic.Analysts have been inching their profit targets higher in recent weeks. They now see the House of Mouse posting a 12% increase in earnings per share on a 5% move higher in revenue for all of fiscal 2025. Disney's dividend has returned and has already been hiked twice. The board recently updated investors with plans to announce CEO Bob Iger's successor by early 2026. The pieces are in place for Disney to take the wheel of market leadership in 2025.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2493479885"}